Spruance's Fifth Fleet was even larger, with scores of escort carriers and more than four hundred cruisers and destroyers. Spruance was charged with protecting the amphibious force, which counted the almost fourteen hundred ships that would carry more than half a million men to battle.
The island of Kyushu had been chosen because it contained reasonably satisfactory landing areas, two magnificent deepwater anchorages, airfields, and, most important, was within range of land-based air cover from Okinawa and Saipan. This latter point was critical. Without land-based cover, the invasion would be dependent on carrier planes, whose operations were limited and could be shut down by the weather and were vulnerable to Japanese kamikaze attacks.
Despite its gigantic size, the Olympic part of Downfall had specific goals and only called for the conquest of the lower third of the island. Kyushu was about twice the size of Massachusetts and roughly divided in two by mountains that separated the north from the south. The army believed that the Japanese could be driven from the southern part and contained in the north while the south was developed as a base for staging and supporting Coronet.
November first had been chosen because it represented both the amount of lead time necessary to develop and launch the attack as well as being after the end of the annual typhoon season. Typhoons had savaged the American fleets off Okinawa and elsewhere, and a recurrence could be disastrous for the expedition. One typhoon had ripped through Okinawa in early August and caused a great deal of damage to equipment being gathered for the landings on Kyushu.
All of the units involved in the operation were among those already in the Pacific theater. No divisions would be drawn from Europe for Olympic, although two armored divisions were scheduled for deployment from Europe for Coronet in 1946. There were no appropriate areas for massed tank assaults on Kyushu, although there were such places on the Kanto Plain. The infantry and marine divisions would still have their regular quota of tanks, many of which would have flamethrowers instead of cannon.
On X-Day, the marines would attack the southwestern tip of the island and begin to drive overland across the Satsuma Peninsula toward Kagoshima Bay, which ran north-south and roughly split the southern end of Kyushu in half. The two army corps would land on the east side of Kyushu, and one corps would also drive on toward Kagoshima while the second took Ariake Bay. Ariake was on the southeastern end of the island and, even though it was the smaller of the two anchorages, was itself large enough to hold a large fleet.
Truman was bemused because someone responsible for planning must have been a car buff and had named all the sites and areas accordingly. Thus, the marines' main landing areas were Taxicab and Roadster, while the army would be in Town Car and Station Wagon. Specific beaches were named after particular brands, and it was a little unnerving to see future battlefields named Ford, DeSoto, Buick, and Chrysler, along with many others. Attacks just prior to November first would take place on several smaller islands off Kyushu.
Truman put down the folder. "Casualties and options, gentlemen."
As usual, Marshall answered. "Casualties are impossible to predict, as they are based on several unknowns. First, we don't know how many Japs will be facing us on Kyushu, and second, we don't know how hard or how well they'll fight." He took a deep breath, obviously reluctant to give such an estimate. "We have run several analytical models based on the invasions and campaigns of Leyte, Luzon, Iwo Jima, Okinawa, as well as the latter stages of the European war from Normandy to its conclusion. Right now our best estimate for Olympic alone is two hundred thousand casualties from all causes, combat and noncombat.
Truman shook his head. "And if we have to go forward and attack Tokyo, how many for Operation Coronet?"
Leahy took his turn. "Perhaps another ninety thousand battle casualties, which, if the noncombat casualties are added in, would bring the total for the campaign up to nearly a half a million. And these are only for the ground forces. We estimate at least another ten thousand naval personnel will be casualties, primarily as a result of kamikaze attacks for Olympic alone. The Japs are hoarding their planes for just such an attack, and they will come at us in the thousands. Some are bound to get through, just as they did off Okinawa."
Truman wondered, "How many kamikaze planes did the Japs throw at us at Okinawa?"
"About two thousand," King said, "and they sank almost forty ships, although all were smaller ones. While several hundred ships were damaged, nothing larger than a destroyer was sunk. A couple of our carriers suffered grievous wounds. The Benjamin Franklin was struck by a kamikaze and eight hundred of her crew were killed with hundreds more wounded. We think that many more than two thousand kamikazes were launched, but that a goodly number of them simply got lost or just fell out of the sky for mechanical reasons. That won't happen at Kyushu since we'll be hundreds of miles closer to the kamikaze bases. When the Franklin was hit, she was just off Kyushu.
"The kamikazes, Mr. President, scare the hell out of the navy, and I don't mean just their planes when I use the term kamikaze. They have kamikaze boats and subs, even human-piloted torpedoes."
"Scares the hell out of me as well," Truman muttered.
"Of course," Marshall injected, "we are of the opinion that a decisive American victory on Kyushu stands a good chance of making the Japanese surrender. If that's the case, we won't have to launch Operation Coronet and invade near Tokyo."
Sure, Truman thought bitterly, just as the atomic bomb was going to make them surrender. "After all that's occurred recently, do you really believe that?"
Marshall was not intimidated by the response. "Sir, our intelligence intercepts indicate that the Japs are massing virtually everything they have on Kyushu. If- I mean when- we beat them there, they won't have anything left to fight with. The battle for Japan will be won or lost on Kyushu."
"Then why," Truman asked, "don't we do an end run and drive straight for Tokyo if they have all their forces on Kyushu?"
King responded, "Because of the threat of their kamikazes and the fact that we absolutely need land-based air cover to protect our men and ships from those assaults, as well as to bomb Japanese strongpoints."
Truman sighed. The cold statistics were making him angry. These were people, flesh-and-blood people, and not abstract numbers. "I talked to Secretary of War Stimson, and he feels your figures are far too low. Churchill felt the same way, and that was before he was booted out of office by the ungrateful British people. What do you say about that?"
Again Marshall met his stare. "These are all estimates. God only knows what the reality will be. I will say that both of the gentlemen you mentioned are highly emotional and tend to overstate issues."
"All right," Truman said resignedly. "Run my other options by me."
"Yes, sir. Even before the atomic bomb, we felt we had only three alternatives, and that only one, invasion, was viable. The first of the other options was to carry on limited offenses against other Japanese-held lands, such as Formosa and Korea. This first idea was discarded almost immediately as we believed it would not cause the Japanese to give up and would only create needless American casualties."
"Agreed," said Truman.
"The second option was to continue the blockade and the bombing offensive. While we believe this would minimize our casualties, we are convinced that it would take an unacceptable length of time, perhaps years, to bring down the Japanese."
Truman tapped his fingers nervously. "Too long. The American public demands a quick victory and an end to the war's privation. We cannot have millions of our boys sitting on their duffs while we blockade the Japs and wait for them to give up. Good Lord, the public is after us to bring the boys home now. If we tell them there might be years of relative inaction while we wait for the Japs to quit, there'll be hell to pay."