Truman was bemused because someone responsible for planning must have been a car buff and had named all the sites and areas accordingly. Thus, the marines' main landing areas were Taxicab and Roadster, while the army would be in Town Car and Station Wagon. Specific beaches were named after particular brands, and it was a little unnerving to see future battlefields named Ford, DeSoto, Buick, and Chrysler, along with many others. Attacks just prior to November first would take place on several smaller islands off Kyushu.
Truman put down the folder. "Casualties and options, gentlemen."
As usual, Marshall answered. "Casualties are impossible to predict, as they are based on several unknowns. First, we don't know how many Japs will be facing us on Kyushu, and second, we don't know how hard or how well they'll fight." He took a deep breath, obviously reluctant to give such an estimate. "We have run several analytical models based on the invasions and campaigns of Leyte, Luzon, Iwo Jima, Okinawa, as well as the latter stages of the European war from Normandy to its conclusion. Right now our best estimate for Olympic alone is two hundred thousand casualties from all causes, combat and noncombat.
Truman shook his head. "And if we have to go forward and attack Tokyo, how many for Operation Coronet?"
Leahy took his turn. "Perhaps another ninety thousand battle casualties, which, if the noncombat casualties are added in, would bring the total for the campaign up to nearly a half a million. And these are only for the ground forces. We estimate at least another ten thousand naval personnel will be casualties, primarily as a result of kamikaze attacks for Olympic alone. The Japs are hoarding their planes for just such an attack, and they will come at us in the thousands. Some are bound to get through, just as they did off Okinawa."
Truman wondered, "How many kamikaze planes did the Japs throw at us at Okinawa?"
"About two thousand," King said, "and they sank almost forty ships, although all were smaller ones. While several hundred ships were damaged, nothing larger than a destroyer was sunk. A couple of our carriers suffered grievous wounds. The Benjamin Franklin was struck by a kamikaze and eight hundred of her crew were killed with hundreds more wounded. We think that many more than two thousand kamikazes were launched, but that a goodly number of them simply got lost or just fell out of the sky for mechanical reasons. That won't happen at Kyushu since we'll be hundreds of miles closer to the kamikaze bases. When the Franklin was hit, she was just off Kyushu.
"The kamikazes, Mr. President, scare the hell out of the navy, and I don't mean just their planes when I use the term kamikaze. They have kamikaze boats and subs, even human-piloted torpedoes."
"Scares the hell out of me as well," Truman muttered.
"Of course," Marshall injected, "we are of the opinion that a decisive American victory on Kyushu stands a good chance of making the Japanese surrender. If that's the case, we won't have to launch Operation Coronet and invade near Tokyo."
Sure, Truman thought bitterly, just as the atomic bomb was going to make them surrender. "After all that's occurred recently, do you really believe that?"
Marshall was not intimidated by the response. "Sir, our intelligence intercepts indicate that the Japs are massing virtually everything they have on Kyushu. If- I mean when- we beat them there, they won't have anything left to fight with. The battle for Japan will be won or lost on Kyushu."
"Then why," Truman asked, "don't we do an end run and drive straight for Tokyo if they have all their forces on Kyushu?"
King responded, "Because of the threat of their kamikazes and the fact that we absolutely need land-based air cover to protect our men and ships from those assaults, as well as to bomb Japanese strongpoints."
Truman sighed. The cold statistics were making him angry. These were people, flesh-and-blood people, and not abstract numbers. "I talked to Secretary of War Stimson, and he feels your figures are far too low. Churchill felt the same way, and that was before he was booted out of office by the ungrateful British people. What do you say about that?"
Again Marshall met his stare. "These are all estimates. God only knows what the reality will be. I will say that both of the gentlemen you mentioned are highly emotional and tend to overstate issues."
"All right," Truman said resignedly. "Run my other options by me."
"Yes, sir. Even before the atomic bomb, we felt we had only three alternatives, and that only one, invasion, was viable. The first of the other options was to carry on limited offenses against other Japanese-held lands, such as Formosa and Korea. This first idea was discarded almost immediately as we believed it would not cause the Japanese to give up and would only create needless American casualties."
"Agreed," said Truman.
"The second option was to continue the blockade and the bombing offensive. While we believe this would minimize our casualties, we are convinced that it would take an unacceptable length of time, perhaps years, to bring down the Japanese."
Truman tapped his fingers nervously. "Too long. The American public demands a quick victory and an end to the war's privation. We cannot have millions of our boys sitting on their duffs while we blockade the Japs and wait for them to give up. Good Lord, the public is after us to bring the boys home now. If we tell them there might be years of relative inaction while we wait for the Japs to quit, there'll be hell to pay."
Marshall nodded. "There are other reasons why a blockade wouldn't work. It would cause millions of civilian deaths among the Japanese from bombing and starvation, and it still wouldn't necessarily cause them to quit. After all, they are capable of providing for their own food needs, however meagerly. It is possible that, after enough deaths, they would arrive at a food-to-population equilibrium that would enable them to sustain themselves forever."
Truman shook his head in disbelief, but the basic idea seemed chillingly correct. There was no certainty that blockade would bring victory. Not ever. "We cannot wait an eternity to find out. Gentlemen, we cannot wait more than a year and there must be action. The American people demand it."
"Agreed," said Marshall, and the others murmured assent. "It goes without saying that our prisoners of war would continue to suffer terribly during this period of time, and that other casualties would still occur. There is ongoing scientific work on defoliants that would destroy the Japanese rice crop, but we will not have the herbicide in any quantities until next year at the earliest. If we do use defoliants, then the result will be tens of millions of Japanese men, women, and children dying of starvation along with our own prisoners, who would, of course, be the last to be fed."
"Which leads us back to an invasion," sighed Truman.
"Yes, sir, it does," Marshall almost whispered, and it struck Truman that the man was upset at the prospect.
"Thank you, General," Truman said. With undisguised distate, he picked up Operation Downfall's thick folder of information as well as the summary sheets. He hated reading long reports. He recalled that he'd had to be talked into reading an earlier report on the Manhattan Project shortly after taking office. "This, I presume, is current?"
"Yes," said Marshall. "At least as it has been developed to date. Changes are being made almost constantly."
"Do these changes include using atomic bombs?" Truman asked.
"Yes, but it is doubtful that we will have enough bombs or targets to make a difference," Marshall said. "The Japanese are scattering, hiding, and digging in their units to minimize the effect of both conventional and nuclear weapons."