General William Childs Westmoreland grabbed his hand and clung to it, slowing his progress and delaying his escape.
“Good to meet you, Captain,” he grinned, a twinkle in his eyes. “Welcome to the major leagues.”
Chapter 15
Major General Michael Carver rested his hands on the folded maps he had retrieved from his attaché case. His long, almost delicate fingers drummed briefly, involuntarily on the table top while he took several seconds to collect and order his thoughts. Even had it been in his nature to dive into his report without pausing for breath he was mindful that this was the most important, probably momentous, briefing he was ever likely to deliver, and this gave even a man as cerebral as Michael Carver, very good reason to take his own sweet time.
“I had the opportunity to read and to consider the transcript of the preliminary debriefing of the ‘special source’ who came into our hands shortly after the Battle of Malta.” He was curious to know the identity of the ‘special source’, and ideally he wanted to talk to him, or her, face to face as soon as possible. However, that would have to wait. “My first reaction to this new intelligence is that it is entirely consistent with the general schema that, having spent the last few days on the ground in the Gulf, I would adopt if I were in the shoes of the Soviet High Command and I had determined to park my tanks on Abadan Island; thus threaten the entire Middle East with further adventures at a time of my choosing.”
Carver looked around the table, his gaze thoughtfully inscrutable.
“My GSO5,” he went on — he was currently Officer Commanding 2nd Division based in Winchester and had taken several members of his Divisional Staff with him to the Middle East, including his chief ‘planner’ — “is currently working up a document detailing the assumptions and the reasoning behind this summary briefing. With your permission I will address the matters at hand in the Gulf under three broad headings.”
General Sir Richard Hull, Chief of the Defence Staff nodded.
“One,” Carver began, “the enemy and his intentions. Two, the balance of forces in the region. Three, the military options open to us.”
Nobody objected so he continued.
“One. The enemy and his intentions. If our ‘special source’ is correct two Red Army mechanised armies are currently strung out across the mountains of north western Iran. At this time this ‘force’, probably comprising around two thousand tanks and perhaps five to ten thousand other vehicles and as many as three hundred thousand men is extremely vulnerable to air attack. This is especially the case because thus far there have been few reports of significant Red Air Force operations. This may be because there are no airfields capable of handling fast jets available to the enemy in that part of Iran and that therefore, support operations must be mounted from relatively long ranges from bases inside Soviet territory to the north; or simply that the Red Air Force does not have many operational aircraft. It is self-evident that the objective of the Soviet offensive is to invade Northern Iraq via the passes at Piranshahr and Sardasht. I say ‘self-evident’ advisedly because from jumping off points in the Iranian Province of Western Azerbaijan around Miandoab-Qoshachay and Mahabad, the Soviets might as easily advance in a south-south-easterly direction down the eastern flank of the Zagros Mountains to directly threaten Abadan.”
The Secretary of State for Defence stirred.
“Surely that would be the most direct route to Abadan, the key strategic objective in the region, General Carver?”
“Yes, sir. However, but that would be to see things from our perspective, rather than that of the enemy.” This the soldier said didactically but instantly quirked a fleeting smile. “Abadan Island is one of the enemy’s objectives, sir. By driving south directly along the line of the foothills of the Zagros Mountains the Soviets would be putting all their eggs in one basket, so to speak, and would risk sacrificing their freedom of manuever in the event of a sustained counter-attack by the relatively powerful, albeit somewhat fragmented, Iranian forces present in the south. I believe it would be a huge mistake to form our plans on the assumption that the Soviets’ main objective is Abadan.”
“If not Abadan, then what?” Willie Whitelaw inquired.
Michael Carver had hoped not to be drawn into general, less specific and quantifiable areas, so soon. With a sigh he bit the bullet.
“I think it is reasonable to assume that the Soviets have thrown everything they’ve got into Operation Chastise.” A Russian speaking member of his staff had complained that ‘chastise’ was only a vague translation of ‘nakazyvat’ but Carver thought it was good enough, if only because it almost certainly spoke accurately to the mindset of the enemy. “The kitchen sink and everything,” he grimaced, ‘in the larder, too.”
“And your point?” The politician prompted quietly.
“They wouldn’t have done that if all they wanted to do was wipe out the Pahlavi Dynasty, Tehran and to conquer Iran as a way of exacting revenge on just one of their Imperialist foes, sir. I think what we have here is a gambler’s last throw of the dice. A calculated, well-planned and up until the last moment brilliantly concealed last throw, but a last throw of the dice nonetheless. That is why although I consider it likely that the enemy’s initial object is to conquer Iraqi territory north of the line Kirkuk-Sulaymaniyah, I suspect he will only pause briefly in the north before striking south with everything he has got.
“Why pause in the north?” Willie Whitelaw asked, painfully aware that absolute clarity was essential.
“To regroup, to re-supply mainly by foraging and looting the resources of cities as far north as Erbil and Mosul, and to capture forward air bases for the Red Air Force. Moreover, by investing the north the enemy will almost certainly provoke the Kurdish elements of the Iraqi Army to join battle.”
“Is there no possibility of containing the invaders in the north of Iraq?”
“In my opinion, no. None whatsoever. Shia Muslim elements of the Iraqi Army’s high command have attempted to mount a coup in Baghdad, presumably taking advantage of the fact that the mainly Sunni-led armoured forces normally based around the capital — for reasons best known to local commanders — decided to launch an incursion into Iranian territory opposite Basra. While it is likely some of those forces in the south may move on Baghdad in the coming weeks, there is no possibility in my opinion that either the Sunni or the Shia-led formations will fight together against the Russians, or go out of their way to assist the Kurds in the north. The best we can do is to leave the Iraqis to their own devices. If we were so unwise as to attempt to intervene, the warring factions would just turn on us, sir.”
“That is why the Soviets will drive south to the Shatt-al-Arab down the flood plains of the Tigris and the Euphrates?”
Michael Carver recognised that the politician had simply been quizzing him to confirm his own analysis of the situation.
“Yes, sir. The enemy’s objective is not just to conquer Iraq and to seize Abadan Island and its refineries; it is to secure jumping off points for future adventures in the region and to gain access to warm water ports. The Soviets mean to transform the Persian Gulf into a Russian lake and to turn off the ‘oil tap’ to the West. At present, this latter is of critical importance to us because Abadan is our only ‘oil tap’, whereas, the other oil fields of the Gulf are currently of incidental significance to the United States. However, if and when the general world economy recovers from the recent war, as assuredly it will when the rebuilding begins in earnest, the availability, or non-availability of oil will become the critical thing. Whoever controls the oil will hold the rest of us to ransom. I say again, this is not just about Abadan and we would be making a bad mistake if we allowed ourselves to think otherwise.”