Takeda was fascinated to watch the delegates in the room mull the situation over. He could already divide them into two groups. Those who wanted a war because their minds could not conceive of another way of handling their problems, and those who could. Those who could were looking at the two maps, the sparse and empty map of 1940 and that of 1941, with its great swathe of Commonwealth forces occupying the area that had once seemed so ripe for plucking. Tojo was looking at him. Takeda he nodded slightly. It is time.
“I call for a vote. Do we accept the Navy plan to seize the Southern Resource Area and thus commit us to the war with the United States it inevitably means?” Tojo looked around the room for the first votes to be declared.
“I vote for it.” Yamamoto wasted no time in casting his vote.
“And I.” Yamaguchi followed him a split second later.
“And I.” Masanobu Tsuji’s vote was also a foregone conclusion. His eyes were so focussed on Southeast Asia and his desire for revenge, they ignored everything else.
“And I.” Nagano Osami followed his master.
“I vote against.” General Nakamura spoke with equal fervor. “This plan is a delusion.”
“I vote against.” Field Marshal Shunroku Hata, Commander of the Shina haken gun, the China Expeditionary Army, was equally firm. The last thing he wanted was resources withdrawn from his thin-stretched army.
“The submarines vote in favor of the plan.”
“The naval air force votes in favor of the plan.”
“The General Defense Command votes against.”
“The Southern Expeditionary Army votes against.”
“The Scouting forces vote in favor.”
“The Ministry of War votes in favor.” That was a shock to Takeda. He had expected Tojo to vote against.
“The Kwantung Army votes against.”
“Kido Butai votes in favor.” Well, Nagumo has finally climbed off the fence.
“The General Staff College votes against.”
“The Army Air Force votes against.”
“Army Operations votes against.”
“Army Intelligence votes against.”
So that made nine votes in favor of the Navy plan and nine against. There were three votes left, one Army and two Navy. The Tokubetsu Kempeitai and the two financial experts did not have votes here. Takeda knew that, if the power blocks held good, the Navy plan would be accepted and Japan would be doomed. He didn’t know how the Americans would do it but he did know that if the Navy had their way, the war they started would end with Japan being smashed into the dust.
“The Army Minister votes in favor.” That was also a shock for Takeda. He was beginning to despair. Can’t these people see what they are doing?
Fuchida had been staring at the map with its array of Commonwealth air units and working out what the chances of the carrier strike groups were like when they were thrown against the growing forces he could see. He had seen the prospect of formations of carrier aircraft engaging in battle after battle against an apparently neverending stream of opposition. They would win each battle. But, with each victory, the finely-honed sword upon which the Japanese Navy depended would become ever duller and the chips on the blade would weaken it more. Eventually it would break. There was another factor. Battles were by definition unpredictable things and nobody could be sure of their outcome. Those new land-based torpedo bombers could come in at dawn or dusk and drop their deadly loads. Only a few weeks earlier, a tiny handful of British Swordfish torpedo planes from the British carrier Eagle had driven back the Italian battlefleet, inflicting grievous losses in the process. That carrier and her Swordfish now operated out of Ceylon. The image of a constant battle of attrition and the ever-present danger of a lucky strike had led him to an ugly conclusion. The planned assault was doomed.
Even if it succeeded, it would have failed for the continuous battles would leave the precious carriers and their fragile air groups ruined beyond quick repair. That meant Japan would be defenseless against the counter-blow that would surely come. There was only one thing he could possibly say.
“The Air Fleet votes against.”
“You snivelling coward!” Yamaguchi screamed the insult and struck Fuchida in the face. Blood trickled from the pilot’s lip but he stood to attention, ignoring the blow. Takeda knew that pose well; a man who had done his duty as he saw it, regardless of cost to himself. I am sorry I ever linked you with the Spirit Warriors. Today you showed the true heart of a warrior.
That made it ten votes to ten. All eyes turned to the one man who had not yet voted. The Head of Navy Operations, Minoru Genda. He was Yamamoto’s protégé; a man who had benefitted from having his career steered by Yamamoto from one auspicious posting to the next. Everything he had and everything he was, he owed to the Admiral. Next to him Yamamoto was already smiling with the understanding that, despite Fuchida’s defection, the vote was won.
Genda stared at the map and the solid swathe of Commonwealth air power, then at Fuchida, who had realized its implications. Genda’s strategic insight, almost unique in this room, warred with his loyalty to his patron. His mind was also filled with images; not of air battles or victories, but with the simple figure of a man playing dice. No matter what the game was, no matter how heavily the dice were loaded, one day that man would lose. Losing was inevitable; the art of war was to ensure that when battles were lost, the consequences of the loss would not be fatal to the cause as a whole.
Here, the man playing dice was staking everything Japan had on each throw and assuming that fortune would not turn its face from him. But, it surely must one day. Then staking everything would mean no prospect of recovery. One other thing kept nagging at his mind. The centerpiece of the plan was to destroy the U.S. Fleet at Pearl Harbor. Yet, attacks on a major naval base were foolhardy. For all the gains it might have offered, the British had backed off attacking the Taranto naval base. Instead, they elected to fight the Italian Navy at sea, in the Strait of Calabria. Was the entire Navy Plan based on a flawed foundation?
Genda looked up and saw Takeda staring at him. He remembered, whatever other loyalties he had, his first was to Japan and the Emperor. To them, he owed the best advice he could deliver; not that which suited his own ends. In that respect, he was also almost unique in this room. He made his mind up, taking a deep breath as he did so. “Operations votes against the plan.”
Five words, utterly unexpected, caused complete uproar in the conference room. Yamaguchi had to be physically restrained from assaulting Genda. Yamamoto stared at him with a stricken expression; one that revealed his sense of complete betrayal. Tojo’s face was expressionless as he banged his gavel. “Operations in China will continue as currently planned, pending further developments. By eleven votes to ten, the proposed plan for an attack on Pearl Harbor and the Southern Resource Area has been rejected.”
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Copyright © 2012 Lion Publications Inc, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown, Connecticut
06470. ISBN 978-0-9859730-2-5.
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