“I agree, Madam Ambassador. This policy seems hardly enlightened, but what can you do about it?” Sir Josiah sighed theatrically.
“Therein is the problem. The growing Japanese position in Indo-China is a threat to us all. Most of all, it is a threat to India. The Japanese need oil, rubber and all the other raw materials that this region can supply. They also have covetous eyes on India itself for its riches and its population. Most of all, they want the great naval base of Singapore. If they establish a secure base in Indo-China, they will strike westwards. Once over the Mekong, the next viable line of defense is the Irawaddy. If that is held, it will still mean the loss of Malaya and Singapore. It will also mean that we get overrun of course. If the line of the Irawaddy doesn’t hold, the next viable defense line is the mountains on the India/Burma border. At that point, the Japanese will have almost everything they need except India itself and they will be in a vastly stronger position to take that.”
“I think you underestimate the strength of Singapore, Madam Ambassador. Its great guns make it impregnable.”
“From the landward side? How many of those guns can be trained upon an attacker from Malaya? And do the guns have explosive ammunition suitable for firing at an Army?”
“More than one might think. And I believe the munitions stores are comprehensive.”
“And the water supply? Singapore has little or no water available on the island itself. If the water pipes from the mainland are cut, how long can the garrison hold out?”
Sir Josiah looked at his guest sharply. He had noted the skill with which she discussed strategic affairs. And she had made an obvious point now she had mentioned it. The water supply was the great Achilles heel of the fortress. She was right; Singapore was vulnerable from the landward side, even with its great guns. “And what do you think they would do from there?”
Suriyothai thought for a second. “Singapore would become their forward operating base. Are you aware that the Japanese have assembled their six aircraft carriers into a single striking force? They call it the Dai Ichi Kido Butai, the First Air Mobile Striking Force. I do not believe its equal exists anywhere in the world. With all six carriers operating together, they can throw almost four hundred aircraft into a battle over a limited area. That will gain them air superiority. I think they would strike at Ceylon first, seize that and thus establish another forward base at Trincomalee. India would then be faced with a two-pronged assault, from the south and the north. Such an assault would strain Japanese power to the outer limits of the plausible, but the potential rewards for them may make the commitment worthwhile.
The sweeping concept made Sir Josiah blink. “What are you suggesting, Madam Ambassador?”
“That the only viable line of defense for India is along the Mekong. By the time the Irawaddy is reached, Japan will have already won. Frankly, I doubt that the Irawaddy can be held. It is simply in the wrong place. Too far from India to be supported, too close to Japanese base areas to be secure and it will have already conceded everything the Japanese want. Sir Josiah, the options are the Mekong or a massive loss and a desperate fight in the Imphal Kohima mountains. Possibly supported by an assault in Tamil Nadu. If we hold the Mekong, the situation of India having to protect itself doesn’t arise. The Japanese will never get there.”
“You sound very sure of that.”
“Very sure. Their Army is of no great concern to us. We outnumber their Indochina Expeditionary Force on the ground and our Army has been rebuilt by German instructors who preferred to live here than under the regime presently ruling Germany. It is in the air we are weak. We would like to reequip with modern American fighters and bombers but the Americans are refusing to deliver our latest order. There are six P64 fighters and ten A27 bombers held up in America now despite the fact that we have already paid for them. We wish to use purchase more American equipment but we may be forced to acquire Japanese aircraft instead. And that will force us to ally with them, not you. That is not our wish.”
“You would not consider British aircraft?”
“We would, if we were offered them. We would regard Spitfires and Hurricanes as gifts from the Gods. But, all we are offered are Gladiators and old, surplus Gamecocks. They are no advance on what we have already. Sir Josiah, we must ask the aid of India in this matter. We would beg you to intercede with the Americans, convince them that we simply wish to control our own destiny free from outside bullying and domination. Rather like a group of thirteen colonies some years ago. If America extends the hand of friendship to us, we need seek no other.”
“Except India, of course.”
“Of course, Sir Josiah. The fortunes of my country and India are indissolubly linked. Geography, simple geography, tells us that.”
“So, where are we with the industrial analysis of Germany, Phillip?”
Phillip Stuyvesant produced a very heavy series of files from a carry case. “We’ve made a pretty good start in getting a picture of German industrial power sorted out. This is our initial overview of the situation, although it does leave much to be desired in the way of fine detail.”
“That’s the overview?” General George Marshall was dumbfounded by the sheer volume of paperwork that was being generated. “What, in the name of God, does the fine detail look like?”
“I can ask one of my assistants to bring what we have in. She’s waiting outside with it. I warn you though, she’ll have to wheel it in on a trolley; it’s a lot of data. Nobody has ever tried to do this before. What we are attempting to do is create a picture of the economy of an entire country and then work out how to dismantle it. This is not just a matter of finding the factories and bombing them. We have to work out how the various industrial structures interlock. From that, we can plan a campaign that will paralyze the German war economy.
“There’s something else as well we’re learning from this effort. We’re not just generating a picture of the German war economy. We’re getting a very fine handle on what German plans are. For example, we’re getting a picture of supplies, especially fuel, being shifted towards depots in the East. All the indications are that Germany is going to invade Russia. It’s too late for them to do it this year, and anyway, their army is down for maintenance after the fighting in France. But, the build-up of supplies in the east is accelerating too fast for an attack in the far future. It looks like we can expect the German invasion of Russia next year. We can even suggest how they are going to do it. It looks like three primary depot areas are being established, one in the north, one in the center and one in the south. Combining that with a railway map of the Soviet Union suggests that three thrusts are planned: one in the north aimed at Leningrad, one in the center aimed at Moscow and a third in the south aimed at Kiev. As the supply quantities build up, we could even make a guess as to the relative strengths of those thrusts. That will tell us what their overall invasion strategy is. An emphasis on the southern thrust will suggest priority being placed on resources; a northern bias will suggest industrial and political targets.
“That’s all a bonus though. The real meat is the data we’re getting on industrial capacity and that is intriguing. It seems as if Germany isn’t actually taking this war very seriously. They’ve mobilized, but not that much. They’re still producing large quantities of civilian goods. They’re even still making hunting rifles for the civilian market. I’d say we’re already mobilizing to a higher level than they are. I’d say that, if anything, we’re going to have a lead in that department.”