He was ready, he told himself. And so was his team. At least they'd better be. Because in about half a minute he was going to start kicking Striker ass as it had never been kicked before.
TWENTY-TWO
The State Department 727 took off from Andrews at 3:03, and was quickly swallowed by the low hanging clouds over Washington. The customized jet would remain in the clouds for as long as possible. That was standard State Department procedure to keep them from being visually sighted and targeted by ocean-based terrorists. It made for a safer ride, albeit a bumpy one.
Paul Hood knew very few of the other forty-odd passengers. There were a number of brawny, silent DSAs — Diplomatic Security Agents — a handful of tired-looking reporters, and a lot of career diplomats with leather briefcases and black suits. There had been a good deal of pre-takeoff networking going on, and ABC State Department correspondent Hully Burroughs had already organized the traditional plane pool. Everyone who had wanted to play kicked in a dollar and picked a number. An official timekeeper had been named and when it was time to land, would count off the seconds from the time the pilot told everyone to buckle in until the instant the wheels touched the ground. Whichever passenger guessed the correct number of seconds between the two events won the pot.
Hood had avoided it all. He'd taken the window seat and put young Warner Bicking on the aisle. Hood had found that chronic talkers tended to talk less if they had to lean over. Especially if they'd already had a few drinks.
Hood's pager beeped at 3:07. It was Martha calling, probably to continue the conversation they'd begun in the car. She hadn't been happy about the fact that the President had sent him to Damascus instead of her. After all, she'd argued, she'd had more diplomatic experience than anyone at Op-Center and she knew some of the players. She'd wanted to get on the plane or meet him in London, requests which Hood had denied. For one thing, he'd explained, this was the President's idea, not his. For another, if she were gone, then Bob Herbert would be left in charge of Op-Center. Hood didn't want him doing anything but working on saving the ROC and its crew. Martha had gotten off the phone angry.
Hood was not permitted to use his cell phone until tea minutes into the flight, so he waited until the flight attendant gave the okay for electronic equipment to be used. Before calling back, Hood booted his laptop. Since the phone lines were not secure, Martha would have to refer him to coded information on the diskettes if there were any new developments.
When Martha picked up the phone, Hood knew that she was no longer quite so angry. He could tell at once from Martha's hollow monotone that something had happened.
"Paul," she said, "there's been a change in the weather where you're headed."
"What kind of change?" he asked.
"It's gone up to seventy-four degrees," she said. "Winds are from the northwest. Nice red sunset."
"Seventy-four degrees, northwest winds, red sunset," he repeated.
"Correct."
"Hold on," Hood said.
He reached into his small carrying case and removed the red-tabbed diskette from its pocket. That already told him that things weren't good. The situation somewhere was code red. After booting the diskette, Hood carefully typed in the code 74NW on the computer. The machine hummed for several seconds, then asked for Hood's authorization code. He punched in PASHA, which stood for Paul, Alexander, Sharon, Harleigh, and Ann — his mother's name — and then he waited again.
The screen went from blue to red. He clicked the mouse on the white letters OP in the upper left corner.
"Warner," Hood said as the file opened, "I think you'd better have a look at this as well."
Bicking leaned over as Hood began scrolling through the file:
Op-Center Projection 74NW/Red
1. Subject: First-Stage Syrian Response to Turkish Mobilization.
2. Provocation Scenario: Syrian and Turkish Kurds jointly strike inside Turkey.
3. Response Scenario: Turkey moves five-six hundred thousand troops to Syrian border to prevent further incursions. (Access 75NW/Red for larger Turkish response.)
4. Result: Syria mobilizes.
5. Likely Composition of Syrian Force: Available manpower is 300,000, distributed between Syrian Army, Syrian Navy, Syrian Air Force, and Syrian Air Defense Forces. Police and Security Forces consisting of 2,000 troops would be assigned to defend Damascus and the President. Additional conscripts would be culled from workforce within the first three days of mobilization. Total additional force of 100,000 wen between the ages of 15–49 would be fielded within two weeks. Inadequately trained, the conscripts would probably suffer casualties of 40–45 % within the next two weeks. Syria would be betting on the fact that wars in the region tend to be brief.
6. Turkish Diplomatic Efforts: Intensive. Would not want war.
7. Syrian Diplomatic Efforts: Moderate. Given highly secular Turkish government, Syria's ninety% Muslim population (11.3 million of 13 million) would accept a conflagration as a jihad or holy war.
8. Time Frame for Initial Conflict: Given an emotionally charged environment created by terrorist activities, there is an 88 % chance that hostilities would occur within the first forty-eight hours. As reactions cool, there is a 7 % chance that hostilities would occur in the next twenty-four hours and a 5 % chance that hostilities would occur thereafter.
9. First Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will not want to be the aggressor for fear of triggering Greek response. However, current policy permits the pursuit of terrorists by strike force if "the nature of the crime is of such a nature to warrant pursuit. (Access Turkish Military White Papers 1995–1997, file 566-05/Green.) To discourage internal discord resulting from inactivity or perceived weakness, a measured Turkish response is deemed extremely likely. Syrian response to a Turkish incursion will be swift and absolute. A multi-force retaliation is likely within and without Syrian borders. (Access Syrian Military White Papers 1995–1997, file 566-87/Green.)
10. Second Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will attack any Syrian troops within its borders but almost certainly will not move into Syria. That would surely arouse Muslims living within Turkey. At that point, both sides will have shown sufficient muscle to withdraw and stand only to lose from further hostilities. Diplomatic efforts will intensify and are considered likely to prevail. The small uncertainty factor will be influenced largely by concomitant response from neighboring nations (see 11., below).
11. Projected Response from Surrounding Countries: It is expected that all nations in the region will assume some form of defensive military posture. Several are likely to take offensive steps.
A. Armenia: The government will support Turkey unless Turkey supports Azerbaijan. In either case, a military response is unlikely against any target but Azerbaijan. Government security forces will watch the Kurdish minority very closely but will not be likely to take military measures against them. (Access Armenian White Paper, file 364-2120/S/White, for U.S. response to Armenian situations.)