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e-mail from: Mr Bedri Eyoobogloo

20 February

Mae,

Thanks for data. The attached file shows what happens when we run it against what's happening here. You are getting more snow because it is warmer. There is more evaporation, which then falls on the higher slopes.

We get Dragon's Breath when an inversion over the desert is suddenly pushed south by a cold front coming down from the north. Usually this happens in summer, when the air has baked. It is usually in massive, single movements.

We have an inversion now – it is 32 degrees Celsius in Balshang! We are getting little Dragons. Mustafa here calls them 'Dragon Sneezes' – whirls of cold coming down in spiral patterns, making very hot blasts, very localized. The front itself is not moving nor the inversion. However, this is the foundation situation.

Your data is going patchy, and that disappoints us. Your assistant Sezen is no substitute for you.

Mae opened the attached file and entered it into her own database. She stood up and looked through her skylight. It was snowing heavily. It was so warm the flakes seemed to have cohered into lumps, almost as if someone were throwing snowballs or marshmallows.

She told her machine, 'Calculate the chances of a flood.'

50-50 Chance of Flood

This is the last warning I can print. I have run out of paper. Please take precautions. The map shows a map of Kizuldah, and where water and avalanches are most likely.

If it gets hot, day or night, if you feel the Dragon's Breath on your back, leave the west of the village. Go east and up. It is best around Kwan's house. Now is the time to get your seed grain up in lofts; don't wait for the flood to begin. Mrs Tung says, when it comes, it sounds merry. The water laughs, the rocks applaud.

If you hear that sound, get yourselves away, get yourselves away, for the love of God.

Your friendly madwoman, Chung Mae

Mae ran with her leaflets to Mr Ken's house and knocked on his door.

His mother opened it. Old Mrs Ken glared at Mae. She was a plump, overworked woman in her sixties, sweaty, with hair astray.

Mae did not give her a chance to speak. 'The government says there is a chance of the Flood, there is cold in Russia; if it decides to move, all the pieces will fall into place, the Dragon will wake up, the snow will melt. Okay. So. If it gets hot, go up to Kwan's. It is bad for us at this end of the village. See?'

Mr Ken's mother stared at her like a stone. She took the paper Mae offered her and held it out away from her as Mae pointed to the map.

Saying nothing, Mrs Ken tore up the paper, calmly, neatly.

'I will put this where it belongs,' she said.

'I am carrying your grandchild,' said Mae, and left, having no more time to waste.

Mae was wrestling with the courtyard gate, and heard footsteps.

'Don't mind Mother, she is still upset,' said Mr Ken. His face was phosphorescent-blue from snowlight, and outlined in gold.

'I'm used to it,' said Mae. It seemed as if Ken Kuei had stepped out of her life from many years before.

'Can I help?' he asked.

Mae paused. 'Yes,' she said, and divided her papers in half and passed them to him. 'Take these along Lower Street, that will be a big help. I will cover Upper, and I will ask Sezen to cover the Marsh. If the Flood comes, get your mother up to Kwan's.'

'Where will you be?'

'I will go to the mosque, so I can use the Muerain's speaker. Okay, thanks for helping. You go that way, I head up there.'

Ken stood his ground. 'Is the baby mine?'

Mae thought: This is what I get for not clearing this up; I am being held up at just the wrong time. 'Of course. Who else's?'

'Will you marry me? After the Air comes?'

The snow fell, like fainting in reverse. White flakes, not darkness, closed from the side of her vision. Blue-and-gold light reflected on the cheeks of this beautiful faithful man.

'Yes,' she said, and then hedged. 'Probably.'

'Probably,' he said, disappointed.

'Move, please. Please?' Her eyes and her voice were pleading. Of course I need help with this – please help.

Mr Ken nodded, serious, solemn, not entirely bright, but good. He stepped out of the gate and turned up Lower Street. Mae found herself gazing at his broad, silent back. Oh God, she thought, I love him too.

She turned and walked northeast.

She climbed up the hill to Sezen's house. She pounded on the door. 'Sezi! Sezi! It's me, Mae.' Hatijah opened the door, looking nervous but pleased to see her patron at New Year's. The courtyard goat began to bleat at the disturbance.

'Hello, Hatijah. Fifty-fifty chance of a Flood, so this is the last of my paper.'

Sezen hopped in, pulling on a boot. 'Mrs Chung-ma'am. Are you going to Kwan's party?'

'No, and neither are you, just yet. You are taking these to Lower Marsh Street, okay? The Macks, the Chus, the Hans.'

Sezen's lip curled. 'Couldn't we let An drown?'

'No time for jokes. I want to be back at my machine before Wing finds out I'm not there.'

'Oh, Mae. Just one drowned traitor. Please?' Sezen pretended to wheedle like a child. Her no-good boyfriend emerged sleepily. He wore no shirt and his plump, hairless belly wobbled.

'Tell your boyfriend he is enough to put people off their food, and to dress himself

Sezen giggled. 'We've just been fucking.'

'This is not a joke, Sezen!' Mae's voice was raised in warning. 'Look, the whole point of being wild is to have more style, not less.'

Sezen swallowed her grin, embarrassed. Yes, Mae was right. 'What can you expect, with my home background?'

'Better,' replied Mae. 'Move!'

Already the warm snow had filled in her footprints. Mae struggled farther up the hill to the school, where Teacher Shen lived. She pounded on the door. Why, why did no one ever answer? She pounded again. 'Yes?' inquired Suloi's voice.

'Suloi, please open up, just for a moment. I am so sorry to intrude.'

The little room beside the schoolhouse was full of candlelight and smelled of wine. Suloi was all smiles, but a screen had been pulled across the entrance and behind it her husband snored.

'Hello, Mae! Happy New Year. Are you going to the party tonight?' She wished everything was normal, she wished everyone could be friends. Mae passed her the paper in silence.

'Oh,' said Suloi, disappointed. She looked trapped, ashamed.

'I'm not saying necessarily, only fifty-fifty.'

Suloi looked sad. 'Are you going to everyone in the village with this?'

'Of course,' said Mae. 'What do you think, that I would leave anyone out?'

'I know you mean well, Mae.' Suloi sighed. 'Mae, you know what people used to do to eldritch women?'

'Cast them out,' said Mae.

'Into the snow,' said Suloi.

'Unless they told the truth,' said Mae. 'I must go.'

'Happy New Year,' Suloi said quietly, and went back to her snoring husband.

Mae marched down the hill to the first house on Upper Street.

The Okans were an old couple, all their children and grandchildren had moved to town. They were delighted to receive company. 'Happy New Year,' they chorused, and hobbled forward with the warm wine they were not sharing with anyone.