Hiram frowned. “Israel? Wait a minute, isn’t that one of the countries that eventually settled the Refuge sector?”
Emily nodded. “You’re not as dumb as you look. Yeah, Israel and another tiny country, Morocco. On Earth they were not really hostile, exactly, but hardly friends either. Different religious beliefs, so there was chronic mistrust, but no open military strife between them. Anyway, in the Third Plague, they separately departed Earth in Colony Ships and then both of them ran into problems. If I remember correctly, the engines failed on the Israeli ship and the Moroccans rescued them, but the Moroccans had plague on their ship and the Israelis rescued them in return. After they got through that, they decided to stay together and finally ended up at Refuge.”
Hiram gestured. “You were talking about strategic deception.”
Emily gave him a stern look. “So, there were two wars between the three countries, about eight years apart. This is in the twentieth century, Old Calendar. In the first war, Egypt and Syria built up their armies along the Israeli border, but before they could launch their attack, the Israelis launched a spoiler attack, mostly using their air force. Fighters and bombers that actually flew in the atmosphere rather than in space. They caught the Egyptian and Syrian air forces on the ground and wiped them out in the first day. That gave the Israelis air superiority, which they used to crush the Egyptian and Syrian tank forces. This was an area with a lot of open desert, so not too many places to hide from attacking airplanes.”
“This doesn’t sound like a lot of strategic surprise to me,” Hiram said.
“Be patient, I’m getting there. A real drink would probably help, by the way.” Hiram dutifully poured her something amber into a glass and gave it to her.
“So two things happened as the result of this early war. The Israelis adopted the image of the Arab soldier as a buffoon, and pretty much believed that the Egyptians and Syrians could never defeat them in a heads-on battle.”
“Create the stereotype that your opponent is a bad soldier, and it colors everything you learn from then on,” Hiram said.
“Exactly. What the psychologists call ‘priming.’ You assume that something is a hard fact and from that point onward you interpret all new data in relationship to that ‘fact.’ But the other thing is even more important: the Egyptians and Syrians knew the Israelis believed this, and they took advantage of it. They planned a great deception, what one of the old superpowers used to call a maskirovka. What Egypt did was gradually build up its army, while at the same time leaking information that although they wanted to attack Israel, they couldn’t until one of the superpowers — the Soviets — gave Egypt a certain type of long range missile and enough bombers to threaten Israel’s major cities. Meanwhile, the Syrians said that they wanted to attack Israel, too, but couldn’t unless Egypt would join them.” Emily grinned. “The best part is that the Soviets agreed to play along. They leaked some information that they wouldn’t give the Egyptians long range missiles or bombers because they didn’t think the Egyptians were good enough to handle them. The Soviets played to Israel’s belief that the Egyptian army couldn’t fight its way out of a paper bag.”
“So what happened?” Hiram asked.
“Egypt and Syria scheduled military exercises along Israel’s border to coincide with Israel’s high religious holiday, Yom Kippur. They knew that a lot of troops would be away from their units, attending religious services with their families. At the same time they pretended to have a dispute with the Soviets and ordered them to leave the country. It was almost perfect. Although some of Israel’s army generals warned that an attack was imminent, the Israeli intelligence service kept telling the political leadership that the Egyptians would not attack, that the buildup was just their annual military maneuvers. Israel didn’t begin to mobilize until less than twenty four hours before the attack. The Egyptians stormed across the Suez Canal on the western side of Israel’s territory and the Syrians attacked the eastern border with troop numbers sixteen to one in their favor, and in some places even thirty to one.”
Now Hiram was interested. “So, what happened?”
Emily shrugged. “For the first two days, Israel was pushed back on both fronts, then managed to hold on by the skin of their teeth. It was very close. At one point in the second day Israel got within minutes of launching a nuclear attack on the capital cities of Egypt and Syria.”
Hiram stared at her. “You mean they had nuclear weapons and didn’t use them even after a surprise attack?” he asked incredulously.
Emily shrugged again. “Politics. If they’d used them, they risked having the Soviets retaliate with nukes of their own. But it’s a classic example of maskirovka. The Egyptians coordinated the deception and the Israelis, who were no dummies, were completely taken in.”
Hiram sat back and sipped his drink, his eyes going unfocused as he thought. “So the critical part of all of this is that Israel believed the Egyptians were not a serious adversary.”
“Yup,” Emily nodded. “Israel’s intelligence service filtered everything they learned through the accepted concept that the Egyptians were screw-ups and could not effectively project force.”
Now Hiram looked troubled. “At the briefing today, Admiral Giunta told the other admirals a joke: ‘What does DUC stand for?’”
Emily shrugged.
“DUC stands for “Defective Universal Coil.” Hiram said. It was a reference to the many equipment breakdowns that had plagued the Dominion ships patrolling Tilleke space.
Emily began to smirk, then caught herself. “So we are applying a demeaning stereotype to the Dominion, making them look …” She groped for a word.
“Ineffectual?” he suggested.
“Yes, that’s it. You’re telling me that the highest Admirals in the Fleet think the Dominion forces are ineffectual buffoons.”
Hiram shrugged.
Emily sat back and let her mind run. “Gods of Our Mothers, Hiram, are you telling me that the Dominion are faking these breakdowns so that we will think they are bumbling idiots?”
Hiram shrugged.
“Stop doing that!” she said crossly. “You goddamn know something you aren’t telling me.”
“Sorry, Em.” He smiled. “Remember the tug boat captain, Peter Murphy? I spoke to him about the types of repairs the Dominion ships have needed. Mostly they’ve been single items that are delicate, like universal coils, mixing valves and injector heads.”
Emily didn’t know a lot about space ship engines, but she knew enough. “Each of those is hard to diagnose, but easy to repair once it has been identified as the problem.”
Hiram nodded. “You could swap out a good universal coil for a defective one, then creep into a Victorian ship yard for repairs. It might take the ship yard several days to figure out what the problem is. And during that time, a fully armed Dominion warship is sitting within easy shooting range of our ship yards.”
“But…but,” Emily spluttered, unwilling to accept what he was saying was right, but aghast that it might be. “But once they’re repaired, they’re leaving, going back to Tilleke space.”
“Yeah, sure. But in the meantime we have gotten completely blase about having Dominion war ships anchored near our space stations.”
“You told Admiral Teehan about this?” she asked.
“Of course. He reminded me that the Dominion are our allies in the fight against the Tilleke.”
“You realize, don’t you, that for this entire thing to work for the Dominion, it means that the Dominion has to be working hand-in-hand with the Tillies? That’s a little hard to swallow.”
Hiram grimaced. “Of course I do! That’s the part I can’t accept myself, but…” his voice trailed off.
Suddenly Emily remembered the last week of Camp Gettysburg, when Hiram tickled to the fact that another training exercise was about to be sprung on them.