endogenous – эндогенный ( внутренний, присущий системе )
exogenous – экзогенный ( внешний по отношению к системе )
forecast – прогноз; прогнозировать
gap – пробел, брешь
include – включать
incomplete – неполный
interact – взаимодействовать
predict – предсказывать
prediction – предсказание
reliable – надежный
variable – переменная
gross national product – совокупный национальный продукт
as a whole – (взятый) в целом
in details – в деталях
gross income – совокупный доход
net income – чистый доход после выплаты налогов
и иных обязательств
several years into the future – на несколько лет в будущее
information base – информационная база
Exercise 6
Answer the questions:
1. What do econometricians study?
2. What economic variables do they take into account while producing their models?
3. What is an economic model?
4. Why cannot some economic variables be predicted?
5. What economic variables are called exogenous and endogenous?How Does Forecasting Work?
1
An economic forecaster was known to have an horseshoe prominently displayed above the doorframe of his office. Asked what it was for, he replied that it was a good luck charm that helped his forecasts. But do you believe in that superstition? he was asked, and he said, «Of course not!» But then why do you keep it? «Well,» he said, «it works whether you believe in it or not.»
2
An econometrician and an astrologer are arguing about their subjects. The astrologer says, «Astrology is more scientific. My predictions come out right half the time. Yours can\'t even reach that proportion.» The econometrician replies, «That\'s because of external shocks. Stars don\'t have those.»
3
An economist is a trained professional paid to guess wrong about the economy. An econometrician is a trained professional paid to use computers to guess wrong about the economy.
4
Economic statistics are like a bikini, what they reveal is important, what they conceal is vital.
5
Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.
Слова и выражения:argue – спорить, аргументировать
astrologer – астролог
astrology – астрология
bikini – бикини ( тип дамского купального ансамбля )
blindfolded – с завязанными глазами
charm – очарование, чары
doorframe – дверная рама
external – внешний
guess – догадываться, строить догадки
horseshoe – лошадиная подкова
luck – успех, удача
prominently – на видном месте
proportion – пропорция
shock – удар, потрясение, шок
superstition – предрассудок
vital – жизненно необходимый
good luck charm – талисман, притягивающий удачу
come out right – «получаться», «выходить»
guess wrong – строить неверные предположения, догадкиExercise 7
Answer the questions:
1. What did the forecaster have the horseshoe displayed for?
2. How often are the astrologer\'s forecasts correct?
3. Why can\'t econometrics reach that proportion of correctness?
4. How do econometricians use computers in their guesswork about economy?
5. What do bikini… Well, I never…How to Use Mathematics in Economics. The Equation of Earnings
Engineers and scientists will never make as much money as business executives. Now a rigorous mathematical proof has been developed that explains why this is true:
Postulate 1: Knowledge is Power.
Postulate 2: Time is Money.
As every engineer knows,
Work = Power х Time
Since Knowledge = Power, and Time = Money, we have:
Work = Knowledge х Money
Solving for Money, we get:
Money = Work / Knowledge
Thus, as Knowledge decreases, Money increases, regardless of how much Work is done.
Conclusion: The Less you Know, the More you Make.
Слова и выражения:
conclusion – заключение
decrease – уменьшаться
executive – исполнительный
increase – увеличиваться
postulate – условие ( постулируемое условие )
rigorous – строгий
solving – здесь : преобразовывая математическое выражение
business executives – управляющий производством
regardless of – вне зависимости от
Marxism
Karl Marx remains so far one of the most controversial figures in the field of economics. His criticism of capitalism, and his promise of a harmonious socialist future, inspired a revolution of global proportions which brought some economic and political systems to disaster. But, despite the collapse of socialism in the Eastern Europe it is evident that the Marxist dream had firm roots in reality. To understand those one has to look through general characteristics of Marxism – its economics, social theory, and overall vision.
The core of Marxian economics is the labour theory of value elaborated in Capital (1867). Its general issue is rather simple: the value of a commodity can be measured by the amount of labour hours that are necessary to produce that commodity.
To illustrate this Marxists usually employ pretty simple examples. If a watch usually takes twice as long to produce as a pair of jeans, for example, then watches are twice as valuable as jeans. In the long run the competitive price of watches will be twice the price of jeans, no matter what the value of the physical inputs is.
Marx was not the inventor of the theory. Marxism is based on the classical economics of the mid nineteenth century, namely on Adam Smith\'s The Wealth of Nations (1776) and David Ricardo\'s Principles of Political Economy (1817). But Marx went much further than his predecessors. He turned his theory against this advocates of capitalism. Arguing that his theory is supposed to explain the value of all commodities, Marx includes there also the commodity that workers sell to capitalists for a wage. Marx called this commodity «labour power». This move was imbued with strong political implications.
Labour power is the worker\'s capacity to produce commodities. The value of labor power depends on the number of labour hours it takes society to produce a person who is fit for work (to give him food, clothes, and shelter). Therefore, the worker\'s wage must correspond to this number of hours. If five hours of labour are needed to maintain the worker\'s capacity to produce commodities, and one labour hour is equal to one dollar, then the proper wage must be five dollars a day.