Komeyev nodded his agreement. “When the Gepard was lost in May 2005, the wrecked hull was found twelve days after she was declared missing. But wasn’t the search area also much larger in that case?”
“Quite so, Admiral. But also recall there were three oceanographic research ships with towed side-scan sonars involved in looking for Gepard. Their combined search rate would be two orders of magnitude higher than a single submarine attempting to remain covert.”
The Russian Navy CINC began pacing, mulling over what he had heard. He shook his head as he walked. If Lavrov’s analysis was correct, and the Americans were to learn of the deep-sea launch facility, it would unhinge President Fedorin’s plan to recapture the former Soviet Union’s lost territory. It could also move the Russian Federation and the United States closer to a full-blown nuclear exchange.
Lavrov watched as Komeyev paced. Seeing that the questioning had ceased, the captain wrapped up his presentation.
“The appearance of the Jimmy Carter is an alarming development, sir. She may, in fact, be sent out to search for Toledo, but it’s unlikely Carter will be looking in the same place as the surface units we currently see running around off Franz Josef Land. If my theory is correct, Carter will go much further afield to search for their missing submarine.
“My greatest concern is that while they’re looking for the Toledo, they will hear, and see, the Project Drakon construction effort, which is barely five nautical miles inside our territorial waters.”
The room suddenly went quiet as Komeyev continued pacing; the three other officers looked on. Lavrov caught Drugov nodding his approval; the intelligence chief felt his stomach loosen up a bit. After half a minute of awkward silence, Komeyev stopped pacing, looked at Lavrov, and chuckled. “You think very darkly, Vasiliy Vasil’evich, but I find myself agreeing with your premise. What do you recommend?”
Relieved, Lavrov began running down his prepared list. “First, sir, we need to increase our intelligence collection on the Jimmy Carter. We have a limited inventory of imagery satellites, so we’ll need to get an operative to the Groton submarine base to keep an eye on that boat. Second, we need to have the deep-sea research submarines Belgorod and Losharik search for Toledo. Those submarines are scheduled to assist with the loading of the Drakon launch tubes, but if we can get them up to the Prima Polar Station sooner, that would be ideal. Finally, we need to have a nuclear-powered attack submarine patrolling the area. Should the Jimmy Carter head north as I suspect, we need to keep her away from the launch facility.”
“Reasonable,” commented Komeyev. “What do you think, Admiral Balakin?”
“Captain Lavrov’s recommendations are sound,” replied the deputy. “The first is a matter of formality, one that the good captain can handle himself. However, the second will be much harder to implement. Losharik is currently in dry dock undergoing scheduled repairs. She’s not due out for at least another ten days, and then she still has sea trials. I will see if the repairs can be accelerated, but I wouldn’t count on it. Several key maintenance items involve her reactor and main propulsion motor. As for the third recommendation, we can have Vepr sortie immediately.”
“With all due respect, Admiral Balakin,” Lavrov interrupted. “Even though Vepr is an upgraded Project 971 submarine, she is still a third-generation boat. She is not the technical equal of a Seawolf-class.”
Komeyev grunted his understanding. “Hmmm, so you’re advising that we should send a fourth-generation submarine, a Project 885M boat?”
“Yes, sir, a modernized Severodvinsk submarine has the most advanced antisubmarine sensors in our fleet. It has the best chance of detecting an extremely quiet American submarine like the Jimmy Carter. Anything less increases the possibility of this spy submarine slipping past our outer defenses.”
“What about Belgorod?” Balakin questioned.
“She is no match for a Seawolf, Admiral Balakin. Since in addition to being a mother ship for Losharik, she also carries her own load of Status-6 torpedoes, she is a priceless strategic asset. I do not believe she should be placed in a situation where there is the slightest risk of her loss. It would be best if Belgorod stayed inside the defensive perimeter as soon as we know the Jimmy Carter has departed the Groton submarine base. This will also reduce the possibility of a friendly fire situation.”
“We could send two attack boats, split the area into two separate patrol zones,” Drugov suggested, using his hands to illustrate the equally divided patrol areas.
Lavrov shook his head in disagreement. “The approaches to the Drakon launch facility necks down considerably as you enter Shokal’skogo Strait. There is barely fifty kilometers between October Revolution and Bolshevik Islands, and the navigable waters are even narrower — that’s far too small an area for two submarines to share. The potential for an unintended attack on a friendly unit is much too high.
“An alternative approach would be to use concentric rings for the search areas and put Vepr in the outer ring, but then again, if the Carter wanted to avoid her, the odds are in their favor they could do so.”
Stillness filled the room again as the debate died off. Komeyev looked satisfied with the discussion and weighed his options in silence; it didn’t take him long to decide.
“Admiral Balakin, please prepare the deployment orders for Vepr and Kazan. Have the staff generate two concentric patrol areas with Vepr in the outer ring. Schedule a formal review of their plan for 1000 tomorrow morning. And do what you can to get Losharik ready for sea as soon as possible.
“Captain Lavrov, I want your intelligence collection requirements on my desk by 0900. Thank you, Comrades, for your wise counsel; now we need to work quickly to implement your recommendations.”
Vice Admiral Gorokhov waited impatiently by the secure landline. He’d received word earlier that morning to stand by for an urgent call from Admiral Komeyev at 1100. Gorokhov mentally went over his recent progress reports to try and figure out just what the navy’s senior admiral would want to discuss. Nothing leapt to the front of his mind, which only added to his agitation. He silently half prayed, half pleaded that it wasn’t another friendly urging to speed up the construction of the launch facility. His musings were abruptly terminated by the electronic shriek of the secure phone.
“Vice Admiral Gorokhov here,” he answered.
“Nikolai! How is life in paradise treating you?” Komeyev’s voice was a bit warbled due to the encryption process, but his friendly tone was clear.
“Sir, I apologize a thousand times for whatever I did to deserve such a posting,” replied Gorokhov jokingly.
“Ah, I’m afraid this is a different kind of self-inflicted wound, Nikolai. You have a well-earned reputation for getting difficult projects completed satisfactorily, and on time.”