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“And this fits in the new torpedo?” Richfield asked.

“Yes, sir, rather neatly,” Perry confirmed smugly. “We know how much of the Status-6 was taken up by the nuclear warhead. Add four meters to that and make the torpedo a little fatter and it matches the dimensions of the Tsitrin missile, nine meters, plus its launch canister. And the available space doesn’t match the dimensions of any other missile in the Russian inventory, or under development.”

Hardy sat back on the sofa with a whoosh as he exhaled. “So this improved torpedo will be able to approach the coast, and then launch a very, very fast missile that can reach over four hundred miles inland…”

Richfield, punching a calculator, reported, “At Mach six, it could reach maximum range in about six minutes. A more typical flight time might be four or five minutes.” He shrugged helplessly. “Even if we knew exactly where it would be launched, we don’t have anything that could stop it. We could build a radar able to track it, but we’d also need a new missile system that could hit it, and we’d have to line both coasts with radars and launchers.”

“But it’s still a second-strike weapon,” Patterson insisted. She took the paper from Hardy and put it on the table in front of her, as if rejecting the idea. “It wouldn’t be used until after a nuclear exchange between us and Russia. This makes a big expensive weapon even bigger and more expensive. Why go to so much trouble?”

Perry responded, “Exactly, ma’am. And it still doesn’t explain how they expect to keep the Prima base from being destroyed immediately, in the first exchange. This weapon isn’t like a missile; it takes some time to start up the nuclear reactor and bring it to max power before you launch it. Unless the launch facility was very well hardened, which would be another added expense, and a considerable one, it would never get a chance to leave its tube. And the more dangerous they make this thing, the more missiles we’ll devote to giving it a quick and violent end.”

Patterson shuddered. “So we know more, but we don’t know enough to do anything.”

Peakes turned to face the analyst. “This is good work, James. But we need you to be good again, and figure out why the Russians think the Prima station won’t get nuked right away.”

Hardy nodded agreement. “Yes, well done. There’s a lot riding on this, Dr. Perry. And it would really help if you found the answer quickly.”

14 July 2021
1030 Eastern Daylight Time
CIA, Office of Intelligence and Analysis
Langley, Virginia

With the “Big Skipper” interested in a fast answer, Dr. Perry’s shop had been authorized to use any resource within the government, and their requests had top priority. While Perry couldn’t call on an infinite number of monkeys, he hoped there were enough for at least one act from Shakespeare. In fact, he’d be grateful for a sonnet.

The U.S. wasn’t the only military fascinated by shiny new stuff. The Russians seemed to also like dealing from the advanced-technology deck, so Perry spent the morning requesting a search of Russian scientific literature going back five years, which was about when he judged the idea of an improved Status-6 might have formed in the Russian leadership.

He also ordered a survey of all known weapon test sites, especially those connected with strategic or nuclear weapons, and finally, all possible submarine design houses for new programs or work to modify the Khabarovsk-class. One possible scenario that Perry had thought of was that the Russians were just in a tremendous hurry to deploy the new weapon. They might even make a demonstration launch to prove the credibility of the improved weapon as a deterrent. It actually was going to be sea-based, but the first submarine fitted with them was at least a decade away from sailing.

Perry was trying to think of more searches when someone said, “Excuse me,” from the open door to his office. An older gentleman with a lined face and snow-white hair stood at the door. “Dr. Perry, I’m George Ryskov, from the Office of Science and Technology. I don’t think we’ve ever spoken.”

Perry almost leapt out of his seat to shake Ryskov’s hand and offer him a chair. Dr. George Ryskov wasn’t just from the Office of Science and Technology. He was the office’s chief scientist, and almost legendary throughout the agency. He had actually been considered for a Nobel Prize in physics some time back. He also had a gift for languages, and spoke several Slavic languages fluently. He knew more about Russian scientific research than anyone on this side of the Atlantic. Stunned, Perry could only wonder what the chief scientist wanted.

Ryskov sat down carefully and said amiably, “Several of my people are afflicted with flaming hair, evidently ignited by high-priority requests from you.”

“I’m afraid so, Doctor,” Perry admitted. “It’s straight from the top, and…”

“I saw the requirement, and I’m willing to do whatever my office can to help. But the smoke is a distraction. I may have a more efficient search method.”

Surprised, all Perry could do was agree. “By all means, sir. What do you suggest?”

The scientist smiled. “Let’s talk for a little while about this new weapon. I’ve seen your analysis of the new payload, and it’s quite insightful. Adding a missile is an impressive increase in the Status-6’s capability. But apparently you believe that the Russians have made other changes to the weapon as well?”

Nodding, Perry replied, “We have to find out why the Russians would build a launch site on the ocean floor for a weapon that really needs to be fired from a submarine.”

“A very secret launch site,” Ryskov added darkly. “They could have chosen many places that are far less remote and where the weather is much more favorable for underwater construction. Construction that would have undoubtedly proceeded much more quickly, and the launch site could very well have been finished by now.”

He paused for a moment, then continued, “That is what first struck me when I heard about this entire business. The remote location. The minefield. The Russians do not want anyone to know what they are doing. They had every reason to believe that they could complete the launch site and deploy this weapon before we were aware of its existence. They may still believe that. Without a certain ‘special resource,’ we would have been caught completely by surprise. This improved torpedo is a ‘secret weapon,’ in the classic sense,” he concluded.

“Well, it won’t be secret once it’s launched,” Perry countered. “Any scenario where these things are actually used becomes surreal very quickly, but the seabed sensors we have in the GIUK gap would easily hear these things the minute they started running. It might be hard to actually destroy the base before it could fire a lot of torpedoes, but the Status-6 or this new weapon would take literally days, even at a hundred knots, to reach a target here in the continental USA.”

Ryskov nodded. “I cannot imagine a scenario where Russia telegraphs a strategic nuclear attack days in advance. This also highlights the question of their remote location, which with its increased distance actually increases our warning time. The Russians don’t appear to be concerned with how long it takes to reach its destination, or how much warning we may get.”

Perry’s expression changed from puzzlement to realization. “Because the new weapon won’t provide any warning. You don’t think we’re going to hear them,” Perry stated flatly.

“One possibility — maybe the most likely one, given their choice of location, is that the improved torpedo is quieter than the original Status-6. We won’t hear them coming because they have found a way to radically reduce their acoustic signature.”