As she walked into the Oval Office, she saw Lowell with Dwight Sellers and Bill Hyland huddled around the president’s desk. All shared the same troubled expression. Hardy heard the door open, looked up and saw her as she walked in. He rose and greeted his wife with a thin smile.
“Good evening, Joanna. I must apologize for being waylaid, but there has been a troubling development with Russia.” No sooner had he spoken than he saw her wince and understood she already knew. “Ahh, I see you’ve read the NATO message concerning the attack on the Norwegian boat. Brings back fond memories, eh my dear?”
Patterson ignored her husband’s poor attempt at humor, and got straight to the point. “Lowell, I think I know what the Russians are trying to do.”
Both Sellers’s and Hyland’s heads twisted instantly in her direction. Hardy leaned against his desk, folded his arms, and said, “I’m listening.”
Marching over to the desk, she asked him to bring up the map she’d just been looking at. Joanna then pointed out where the Russian units were being positioned for the supposed exercise, highlighting the fact that it was largely Belarusian army units that were holding the center against NATO assets in Poland. Next, she summarized the Rand report and brought up the list of recent hybrid warfare-like events in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.
“Now, if Russia were to use the six deployed armies, over half of her standing ground forces, in a sudden surprise attack, they would almost certainly overwhelm all six countries before NATO could even mobilize. The hardest nut to crack would be Ukraine, but I think Russia is allocating at least two and a half armies against her. That’s more than four to one odds, based on troop levels alone.”
“But Dr. Patterson, there is very little air and naval participation in this exercise,” countered Hyland. “Combined arms training is the hallmark of Russian command and control exercises. This suggests the exercise is more of Fedorin’s ‘strategic messaging’ to us and the NATO Alliance.”
“Normally I’d agree with you, Bill, but in past spur-of-the-moment exercises there were far more scenario events that called for air, air defense, and naval involvement — even if the number of participating units was on the low side. Resolve-2021 appears to be unusually ground-force heavy, uniquely so.”
“Concur. And that’s why I believe this is just a stern message, to us in particular.”
As Sellers listened he nodded his head slightly, he knew where Joanna was going. “But Bill, moving well over a hundred thousand troops, and their equipment, is very costly. You said earlier today that the Russian economy is sliding deeper into recession, and the debt burden has skyrocketed in the past four years. From all that we’ve heard, this exercise wasn’t part of the annual training cycle; the Russian MOD hadn’t budgeted for it. Normally, supplies for this type of deployment are pre-stocked. This time they weren’t, and some unit commanders have requested permission to dip into wartime reserve stocks to support it. That’s a very expensive message, isn’t it?”
“Not to mention that the navy and air force are doing everything backwards,” added Joanna. “Many of the front-line units are down for maintenance, now, before the exercise. Normally the participating units go into a maintenance period after an exercise due to the higher wear and tear.”
“So you’re suggesting they’re intentionally limiting the use of their ships and aircraft to keep them in prime operating condition? And that this was preplanned?” asked Hardy.
Joanna nodded. “Yes, and there appears to be a higher than normal number of ships, especially the major units, and Backfire bombers undergoing some type of maintenance. But what’s just as important is that these assets aren’t the limiting factor if you’re planning an offensive, moving army units into position is.”
“But what’s the motivation? What does Fedorin hope to achieve by starting a war?” challenged Hyland.
“Take a close look at the map, Bill. If you fold the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova back into the Russian Federation, along with Belarus, you get…”
“The Soviet Union!” Sellers almost shouted in surprise. “Well, at least the western end of it.”
“That’s a pretty ugly picture you’re painting, my dear,” concluded Hardy. “What I don’t get is why you think Russia would even consider risking a war with NATO?”
Joanna smiled and motioned toward Hyland. “Dwight touched on this a moment ago. Bill’s group has been banging the rocks together on the Russian economy; it’s anemic and appears to be deteriorating more each year. What if the situation is worse than we think? Our information is limited; Fedorin’s isn’t. What if the Russian economy is in a nosedive and the government either can’t, or doesn’t know how to stop it before it plows into the dirt?”
Lowell’s eyes popped open. “It’s the collapse of the Soviet Union, all over again!”
“Precisely, but only this time it would be the collapse of the Russian Federation. Fedorin’s motivation is rooted in fear. If he seriously believes the existence of the Russian state is at risk, that NATO would be in a position to pick off fractured republics in a piecemeal fashion, then this would be sufficient justification for him to consider striking first. He said as much last year.”
“I can see Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, but even Fedorin has to know NATO wouldn’t allow him to invade the Baltics.” Hyland’s voice had a desperate edge to it, as if he was looking for something that would disprove her theory, but didn’t expect to find it.
“Agreed. But without us, NATO doesn’t have a chance.”
“I’m sorry, ma’am, but that’s absurd! Why would we not be involved?” protested Hyland.
“Oh, we would eventually get our act together and support our NATO allies, but by the time we did, it would be too late.”
“I’m sorry, Joanna, but I don’t understand why you think we wouldn’t stand with our allies,” replied Hardy. His demeanor reflected both confusion and annoyance.
“Because all of us here in this room would likely be dead, or struggling desperately to find some path out from under Russia’s nuclear blackmail.” The stunned look on their faces and complete silence told Joanna they hadn’t made the linkage yet.
“Lowell, this is what the Dragon torpedo is all about. Fedorin knows that a war with NATO will very likely include the use of nuclear weapons, and therefore, he would want to find a way to strike first. The Dragon is a covert first-strike weapon. And, if the weapon itself could be kept completely secret, as was their plan, then the surviving national command authority would have to prove it was a Russian nuke. It would be extremely difficult to justify the damage a full-scale nuclear exchange would cause based solely on a hunch, even a good one.
“By then the Baltic States will have been overrun, and the rest of our NATO allies will be asking the question if Tallinn, Riga, or Vilnius is worth Paris, London, or Berlin. The ultimate goal of this new weapon being built at Bolshevik Island, Mr. President, is scaring us or knocking us out of NATO. Demonstrating that the Article V mutual security guarantee is meaningless dissolves the glue that holds NATO together. Without it, the alliance would fall apart.”
Hardy’s expression was a mix of astonishment and anger.
Sellers was tight-lipped and shaking his head. Hyland was dumbfounded; he just couldn’t believe what he had heard. “That’s insane, Dr. Patterson,” he howled. “No nation, regardless of their economic situation, could ever view war as a preferred path. The damage from a nuclear exchange would be catastrophic!”
“Wrong, Bill!” snapped Hardy. “Japan, 1941. Many of that country’s leaders believed it was preferable to go to war than lose face. As disturbing as my wife’s conclusion is, she’s put together a strong argument supporting it. And…” He paused as he looked toward Joanna and smiled. “She has an annoying habit of being right most of the time.”