Jerry understood immediately. The president was asking “Big Picture” questions, things possibly more important long term than solving the mystery of a lost submarine.
“Mr. President, Jimmy Carter is conducting weapons experiments right now and has all the equipment onboard to do a detailed search — she doesn’t have to return to base. We’ll have a Coast Guard icebreaker with a special navy detachment bring her the supplies she’ll need, and she can head straight to Toledo’s last known location. Carter is used to getting in and out of sensitive areas. She can do it quickly, quietly, and by having her cross over the Arctic Circle, we deny the Russians any intel that she is even being sent to poke around their backyard. She can figure out what the hell happened without the Russians ever knowing she was there.”
“That last part is more important than you know,” Hardy remarked. “The borscht is bubbling quite enough as it is. We don’t need to add any more heat to the fire.”
The president paused briefly. “That’s it, then. Get her there as fast as you can, Jerry. We’ll transfer operational control to SUBRON Twelve for the duration of the mission. You’ll get orders through the chain very soon. Tell Captain Weiss I said Godspeed.”
“I will, Skipper. And good luck to you as well.”
“Thanks, Jerry.” Hardy broke the connection and Jerry glanced at the clock. He had some phone calls to make. It was 1815, but his staff’s working day was not going to be over any time soon.
2
STORM CLOUDS
The correspondent stood with the floodlit columns of the Palace of the Republic in the background. The foreground was filled with citizens milling about, some singing, others holding signs in Cyrillic. “This is Chad Gallagher for CNN. Kastryčnickaja Square is filled with peaceful demonstrators now, although that may be the wrong word to describe them.”
The image shifted to a daylight scene, with the plaza much emptier. Wisps of vapor, either tear gas or smoke, partially obscured groups of men, mostly civilians but some police. The latter were in riot gear, and struggled with the civilians. “This was the scene early this afternoon as government forces fought to take control of the square from protestors.
“These images were taken as we arrived, before police told us to stop filming. Throughout the afternoon we interviewed citizens who said that earlier today, the square had been crowded with people protesting the government’s decision to rejoin the Russian Federation.
“Throughout the afternoon, police cleared the square of all civilians, then pro-government ‘demonstrators’ began arriving by bus. A heavy police presence arrested any newly arriving antigovernment protesters. They also directed the bus traffic, and gave instructions to the new arrivals.
“A police official spotted us late in the afternoon. When we asked if we could use the camera, he said, ‘Is okay.’
“Now Kastryčnickaja Square is filled with cheers and people singing Russian patriotic songs. It’s been nearly forty years since Belarus declared its independence from the then-collapsing Soviet Union, but today, the government’s message to the world appears to be, ‘We’re glad to be back.’”
The scene shifted to CNN studios. A map of Russia filled the background, with the different administrative divisions marking the various oblasts, republics, and krais. Belarus, highlighted, formed a bulge on Russia’s western border, projecting farther west, in between Ukraine and the Baltic States.
“This is Christine Laird on CNN’s International Affairs. We’re following the incredible story of Belarus’s joining, or more properly, rejoining with the Russian Federation thirty years after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. As an autonomous republic, Belarus will retain its government and constitution, but she will now be represented by Moscow on international matters, and her economy and military will be integrated with the rest of the Russian Federation.”
The camera zoomed out suddenly to show a man seated to Laird’s right. “With me is Professor Samuel Kyvalyow, from Georgetown University’s School of International Affairs.” Kyvalyow was young for a professor, still in his thirties, with a narrow face and thick blond hair, hinting at Slavic ancestry. “I understand you have family in Belarus, Dr. Kyvalyow.”
“Yes, not far from Minsk,” he replied, his English completely unaccented. “We have been in communication, although I will not say how.” He was nodding agreement, but his expression revealed how worried he was. “They are safe, although my uncle now regrets not leaving when my parents came here to America, shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union.”
“Please explain to us how this happened so quickly.” Laird sounded puzzled. “Only a few months ago, Belarus was meeting with the European Union about regaining its membership.”
“And that is likely the main reason why Russian President Fedorin decided to move,” the professor answered. “Belarus has a strong economy, with a well-developed, modern industry. Closer ties with the West would move it even further away from Russia’s orbit. As we’ve seen elsewhere, Russia used what has become their standard hybrid warfare approach of fomenting unrest in the ethnic Russian population while threatening military action if the Belarusian government takes action to suppress them. Meanwhile, the Russians invest heavily in Belarus’s industry, often to where they hold a controlling interest, and give bribes to any government official who can be bought, which in this case included President Yatachenko.”
“And Russia’s economy becomes that much stronger.”
“Along with many other benefits,” Kyvalyow answered. “Belarus is now a captive customer for Russian products. Where before Minsk might have chosen to buy from the West, that avenue will now be more restricted. Russian industry will have a source for cheaper manufactured goods.
“And it’s a huge triumph for Fedorin domestically, validating his long-stated plans for ‘restoring Russia’s greatness.’ He was a young teen when the Soviet Union collapsed, and has publicly said that he has dedicated his life to restoring ‘his father’s Russia.’ He accepts that military overspending caused the collapse, and that a proper understanding of economics is vital to rebuilding Russian power. That’s why he studied economics, and he’s written several books on the topic, which are now finally being translated and read in the West.
“Militarily, regaining Belarus restores part of the barrier that used to exist between Russia proper and NATO. During the Cold War, the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia to the north, along with Belarus in the center and Ukraine to the south formed a geographic buffer against any NATO attack. Having been invaded so many times, Russia wants satellite countries to keep an invader out of Russian territory.”
“But that still doesn’t explain how Fedorin was able to turn the tables on the West so quickly,” challenged the CNN anchor.
“The advantage of hybrid warfare, Ms. Laird, is that it combines traditional military aspects with irregular warfare, criminal activity, and even terrorist attacks. All are applied against the target at the same time to achieve the desired political objectives. If the target is unprepared for this kind of coordinated political assault, the effects can be devastatingly rapid. Belarus was, frankly, unprepared for this onslaught, and by the time they tried to react, it was too late.” Kyvalyow looked like he was going to continue, but decided he was coming dangerously close to ranting and fell silent.