“They may not have to even go that far,” General Schiller remarked. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs had already briefed the president on the status of the American exercise, Operation Fortify. “I’m very concerned about the Polish defense minster’s remarks this morning. If they aren’t prepared to—”
Secretary of State Lloyd cut in. “He only said that full mobilization depended on NATO showing a united front. And he’s right. Germany and France are the big players. The smaller countries have said quite clearly that they’re waiting to see how Berlin and Paris respond. And those two countries are looking to us. The U.S. has always been the de facto leader of NATO. The sooner we announce Fortify, the better.”
“I agree it will encourage our allies, but I’m concerned that it will also increase international tensions.” Bill Hyland looked genuinely worried. “I’ve looked at our post — World War II history, and this situation is every bit as unstable as the Berlin Blockade or the Cuban Missile Crisis.”
“You’re afraid we’ll end up unintentionally in a shooting war,” Hardy concluded.
“Of course,” Hyland responded. “Fedorin doesn’t want war any more than we do. But he’s seeing how close to the edge he can go. In fact, he’ll hang out over the edge and wave at us. He’s willing to take risks because he believes that’s where the big payoffs are. We can’t know how far he’s willing to go, and he obviously doesn’t know everything we’re doing.”
Hardy was listening, but frowning. “Come to the point,” he demanded.
“The world had come through East-West confrontations before, but later scholarship has shown us that we were always closer to disaster than was known by either side at the time. The danger is not from our or Fedorin’s intentions, but rather unforeseen interactions or mishaps. And the more pieces both sides have in play, the greater the chance of an accident or incident. At best, it will cost lives. At worst, it literally means the end of the world.” The national security advisor sat back, looking a little drained.
Hardy looked over at Joanna, sitting a little to one side. Bill Hyland had been on Joanna’s staff while she was national security advisor under President Myles. His specialty was nuclear strategy. He’d written several books on international relations and military force that were brilliant, and when she’d recommended the relatively junior staffer as her replacement, Hardy and his people had thought him an excellent choice. Youth was not necessarily a down check on the list of qualifications. It was an extremely demanding job and younger bodies usually could handle the stress and lack of sleep better. Hyland had been working twenty-hour days.
The president sighed. “Bill, that risk is going to be there, no matter what we do. We all know that we’re using live ammunition, but so are they, and at the moment, Fedorin seems almost eager to shoot.” He paused, then added, “I think the job of every president is to understand the risks each crisis presents as best he can, and do whatever he can to reduce those risks.”
“Mr. President, I believe that sending those troops to Europe will escalate the current crisis. It may be enough to demonstrate that we’re able to send them, or even just announce the conditions…”
“That’s enough, Bill.” Hardy’s tone was firm. “Our allies need to see concrete actions even more than the Russians do.”
Secretary Lloyd agreed. “The situation in Europe right now is extremely unbalanced. Our presence will give the Russians pause. Their chance of success goes down when a determined U.S. presence is factored into their planning.”
White House Chief of Staff Sellers opened the door without knocking. “Mr. President, gentlemen and lady, Admiral Hughes has new information…”
“Please, send him in,” Hardy urged.
Hughes entered, looking rushed. As he sat, he announced quietly, “We’ve received word from Jimmy Carter.”
Everyone sat up and leaned forward, and Hughes passed a copy of the message to each person. It had been sent two hours earlier.
Hardy took the time to read it twice, then announced, “There’s our timeline for announcing Fortify. At the same time that I report the success of Overcharge, we’ll announce the plan for reinforcing Europe.”
“That should settle Senator Emmers’s hash,” muttered Lloyd.
Hardy nodded. “What I want it to do is set President Fedorin back a few steps. Give him pause for second, maybe even third thoughts.”
Hyland looked alarmed, almost panicked. “Mr. President, Overcharge is exactly the kind of incident that could trigger a nuclear catastrophe. That launch site has to be his personal cause. A deliberate attack by us gives him precisely the excuse he needs. But to be honest, I can’t predict how he will react, because a successful attack will come as a shock to the Russian leadership. Even if it fails, it will enrage him.”
“God forbid,” General Schiller added, scowling.
Hyland was insistent. “The more unusual the circumstance, the harder it is to predict how your adversary will respond. Fedorin could easily see it as a personal challenge, and feel compelled to respond or suffer a monumental loss of face.”
“The Russian population doesn’t even know about the facility,” Schiller retorted.
“They will after President Hardy announces it!” Hyland’s voice wasn’t shouting, but it was a level of intensity rarely heard in the Oval Office, and it was clear from his tone that he thought the announcement was a mistake. “And regardless of whether the attack succeeds or not, we will have committed an act of war.”
The chief of naval operations countered, “Placing those mines so they could attack and sink one of our subs in international waters is also an act of war.”
“Fool! You can’t see the difference between Toledo’s loss, which was completely hidden from view, and the public humiliation of the Russian president.” At this point, Hyland was shouting, hands balled into fists.
“Bill, that’s enough,” Hardy ordered sharply in a raised voice. Hyland turned to look at him, and seemed to be composing a response, but the president cut him off. “Mister, you are relieved.”
Chief of Staff Sellers had opened the door to the Oval Office a crack at the sound of raised voices, and Hardy motioned him into the room. “Dwight, Mr. Hyland is no longer the national security advisor. Please have the Secret Service collect all his badges and personal electronics, then escort him to someplace where he can rest under observation. He is to remain incommunicado until I say otherwise.”
Hardy had been speaking to Sellers, but had kept his gaze fixed on the now former national security advisor. Hyland stood up a little straighter, but in the process also seemed to shrink. He nodded his understanding and turned to leave, then dithered for a moment about whether to take his notepad and tablet. He finally left them behind and walked slowly toward the door.
He stopped halfway and turned to face Hardy. “I will pray that I am wrong, Mr. President, and that your plan succeeds. Thank you for allowing me to serve in your administration, if only for a short time.” A moment later, he was gone, and Sellers closed the door.
“Incommunicado?” Lloyd asked.
“He knows about Overcharge,” Hardy answered. “Bill said it himself. We can’t predict someone’s actions when under severe stress. What if he went to the press?”
Lloyd’s eyebrow rose, and he nodded his understanding. Hardy continued, “It won’t be for long. The Secret Service will park him in a safe house where he can catch up on his sleep. If Carter’s message is accurate, Overcharge will be very public very soon.”
Hardy also looked over to the first lady. Her expression was completely neutral, a mask. The others in the room all knew that she had recommended Hyland for the NSA post. But if they assumed it was a silent apology to his wife, they were wrong.