“Will India press her attack?” Schellenberg asked. “Damn, they’re not suicidal!”
Marlowe studied his hands, folded before him. “Maybe not. But these two countries have been at each other since Partition in 1947. Islamic extremists have slaughtered Hindus living in Pakistan and waged a terrorist war in Kashmir, which is still officially Indian but predominantly Moslem. Slaughter has been answered with slaughter by Hindi extremists in India. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of interfering with Indian affairs, aiding rebels, spreading unrest, and preaching open revolution.
“We’re afraid that India might react to Pakistan’s warning in an … unexpected way. They have a population of nine hundred million to Pakistan’s ninety million … that’s ten to one, gentlemen. They have the eighth largest navy, the fifth largest air force, and the third largest army in the world. They might decide that they could end the Pakistan threat once and for all by replacing the government in Islamabad with one of their own choosing, just like they did with Bangladesh in 1971.”
“But, my God!” Hemminger said. “if they start tossing nukes at each other …”
“Pakistan’s only delivery system would be by air,” General Caldwell observed. “They bought thirty F-16 Falcons off of us a few years back.
They’d do the trick.”
“That’ll look good in the press,” Hall muttered aloud. “American-made planes nuke New Delhi!”
The DCI ignored the interruption. “Early indications are that the Indian air force is specifically hitting Pakistan’s offensive air capabilities,” Marlowe said. “Pakistan has suffered heavy losses already, possibly as high as forty percent. If India can knock out Pakistan’s air, Pakistan won’t have any way of delivering her bombs.
“Even if that doesn’t work out, the present Indian leadership might decide that the loss of a city or two would be worth it. There’s at least an even chance that the Indians will call the Pakistanis’ bluff.”
“God in heaven,” someone breathed softly.
Schellenberg nodded slowly. “When the antagonists are as unpredictable as Pakistan and India, anything is possible.”
“Nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent is unacceptable,” Buchalter said. He marveled at the calm way he said it, as though discussing weekend plans for golf. “I’ve already conferred with the President on this.” He shook his head slightly as he remembered the President’s anger.
Or was it fear?
“Damned right it’s unacceptable,” Caldwell said. “it would be opening the genie’s bottle. We’d never get the damned thing back in again.”
“Not to mention tens of millions of folks dying,” Hemminger said sarcastically.
Caldwell held up his hand. “Don’t get me wrong, sir. I’m not forgetting the casualties. But think of this. In all of history, there have been two, and only two, nuclear weapons dropped in wartime. We’ve managed to keep the lid on things ever since. Now some damned Third World country nukes a Third World neighbor. Suddenly people start thinking about using those nukes in their stockpiles. And those who don’t have them start looking for ways to join the club. Everything we’ve accomplished in holding back proliferation could be negated by a single attack.”
“It would be a nightmare,” Marlowe said. “A nightmare come to life.”
“How can the United States fit into this?” Hall asked. “I mean, like you said, Pakistan depends on us for aid. Maybe we could pull some strings.”
“Might work with Pakistan,” Buchalter said. “But not India. Especially now.”
“What do you mean, ‘especially now?’” Schellenberg asked.
Buchalter opened a folder and removed a sheet of paper. “This just came in from CBG-14,” he said. He glanced at Marlowe, who nodded. “Confirmed by NSA intercepts of Indian communications. Approximately four hours ago, one of our ships was fired on by an Indian sub, Our ship returned fire … and sank the submarine.”
“Oh, God, no,” the Secretary of Defense said. “Now India thinks we’ve already sided with Pakistan.”
“So much for our getting them to arrange an armistice,” Hall added.
“What about the Russians?” one of the Defense Secretary’s aides asked.
He held up two fingers, tightly crossed. “India and the former USSR have always been like that.”
Schellenberg shook his head. “It’s not that simple, son. India has pursued a policy of strict neutrality. What was the Soviet Union was India’s largest trading partner, and India has been one of Russia’s best sources of hard currency. India’s armed forces are mostly outfitted with Russian equipment, yeah, but with a few exceptions, India managed to steer clear of East-West politics. I doubt that the Russians exert that much influence over them, not if knocking out Pakistan is really important to New Delhi.”
“Then what can we do?” Hall asked. “What can the President do?”
“That, gentlemen, is why the President wanted us to meet here this morning,” Buchalter said. “We are to examine Our options, and I am to report to him with the consensus later this afternoon.” He opened the folder in front of him and leafed through it to a marked page.
“Gentlemen, if you would turn in Your briefs to the National Security Decision Memorandum, NSDM-242. I direct your attention to Point Two.”
He cleared his throat and began reading. “In conjunction with other U.S. and allied forces, to deter attacks — conventional and nuclear — by nuclear powers against U.S. allies and those other nations whose security is deemed important to U.S. interests.”
He looked up and faced the men around the table. “This memorandum was formulated by the Nixon-Ford Administrations and reaffirmed by NSDD-13 in 1981. In other words, if the President says that it is in the national interest to prevent a nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent-“
Schellenberg blinked. “Are you saying we should declare war on India?”
Buchalter smiled tightly. “I think, Mr. Secretary, that the President would appreciate an option less extreme than that. But he does want an option.” He turned to Caldwell. “General, I’d like to hear more about this carrier battle group we already have in the area. Anything we do out there is going to rely on them.”
“We could take this up with the United Nations,” Hemminger said. The Secretary of Defense rubbed his chin thoughtfully. “A nuclear war in South Asia could have repercussions on lots of countries. Afghanistan, Burma, Thailand …”
“Not to mention the former Soviet Union, what is now the Commonwealth of Independent States,” Marlowe said. “I imagine that they’re burning the midnight oil right this moment in the Kremlin, trying to decide what to do about this. I assure you, the Soviet Union will not be pleased at the prospect of a nuclear confrontation so near her southern frontiers.”
“The President has already informed our representative at the UN,” Buchalter added. “I imagine Pakistan’s nuke … and the incident with our frigate … will both be pretty high on the list of topics discussed on the East River today.”
The discussion went on for three hours. In the end, it all came down to one thing.
CBG 14 was already in the area. Any other military forces short of ICBMS or long-range SAC bombers would require days or weeks to deploy.
Every man there was remembering the long buildup in the Arabian desert during Operation Desert Shield. Any short-term answer to the crisis was riding on the flight deck of the U.S.S. Jefferson.
CHAPTER 5