“Part of the problem is Greater Manchuria,” Donchez said, not directly answering, “but I’ll get to that in a minute.”
Greater Manchuria, Pacino knew, was a republic recently formed out of a chunk of land from Russia and another from China. Its ultranationalistic dictator was a problem for continental Asia, but a problem, so far as Pacino knew, with no connection with Japan.
Donchez went on. “If we look at today’s global situation, it is very tense, Mikey. Scenario Orange is, I think, just over the horizon. We’re going to have to fight them, and sooner than later. Here’s why. Start with the lousy relations between us. Japan made the first mistake— their move for world economic conquest led them to try and buy too damn much. The final straw was their play to take over AT&T, IBM, Intel, Microsoft and General Motors. Jesus. And people once complained about hotels and movie studios and Rockefeller Center.”
Pacino nodded. The news had broken one Wednesday morning just two years before, when overnight the Japanese government, through MITI, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, had engineered a whirlwind takeover of the five most strategic corporations in America — and how they did it was a stunning lesson in secrecy and deception, the Japanese buying stock through third and fourth parties over months until the day they announced that their interest in the big five was controlling.
“The Fair Trade Bill that shut that takeover down cold was a slap in the face to Japan. You know how big they are on face. They apparently thought things would be business as usual. Suddenly anything with more than 10 percent Japanese content was illegal to import into the United States. Japanese goods might as well have been illegal drugs. We thought we were sending Japan a strong signal. They misinterpreted it, or at least they took strong exception to it.”
“They landed on their feet, they went deeper into Asian and African markets and Russia is a prime market for them. The Russians would do anything to trade with Japan,” Pacino said.
“They did not land on their feet, Mikey. They were hurt bad. They are mad as hell, and their anger is directed at the US. Even though what they did with the covert takeover attempts of our industries was unethical — not to mention damned hostile — the Japanese didn’t and don’t want to see it that way. To them our response was the economic equivalent of a nuclear bomb dropped by America — a total trade ban on Japanese goods in the US. It was a big hit in the pocket too. The US was a sort of cash cow for them. It went away overnight and no other markets can replace that, including Russia, which is still too poor to do important business with Japan.”
“So far you’re talking economics, Dick.”
“All that historic national aggression we’ve seen before from Japan has been channeled once again into a military buildup. The manufacturing capability that once built cars for sale to America has been converted to defense. The so-called Self Defense Force — they don’t call it an army, since an army is outlawed by their constitution — has increased in manpower by a factor of a dozen. The force’s air wing has ten squadrons of the most advanced fighter in the air, the Firestar. And you know about their navy, the Maritime Self Defense Force. They were building a nuclear submarine for export sale five years ago, the Destiny class. Then they began building an improved version for themselves, the Destiny II class. They’ve built over a dozen of them. They’re the most capable supersub since our Seawolf class. But from the little I hear from Leach at CIA, the Destiny II boats are head and shoulders better than Seawolf. And your aging Los Angeles-class subs are no match for it.”
“I know. Admiral. But we could only get funding for two more Seawolf-class ships, the Barracuda and the Piranha. Until the new class comes off the drawing boards that’s all we’ll get.”
“You’d better listen up, then, Mikey. There’s worse news. Apparently there is now a Destiny III-class submarine. The Destiny III is unmanned, run by a computer.”
“I had a quick briefing on that. From what I understand, it’ll never work. The problems are endless. My people tell me it’ll never go to sea.”
“I hope you’re right, but if anyone can make a robotic submarine work, it’s the Japanese.”
Pacino was restless. The briefing, troubling as it was, didn’t seem to justify Scenario Orange. “So, Dick, we had a trade war. The Japanese lost and have turned to other markets, including Russia. They’ve built up their military while ours has dwindled. That’s not enough—”
“Listen to me and listen good.” Donchez clicked his remote angrily, and the map returned to an overhead view of the Far East. The new nation of Greater Manchuria, shown in blue, faced Japan across the Sea of Japan, the blue giant extending from North Korea north to the Sea of Okhotsk far north of Japan’s Hokkaido Island. The northern island in Japan’s chain, the disputed island of Sakhalin that had been Russian territory, was now part of Greater Manchuria. Greater Manchuria also included what had once been called Manchuria, a part of northeast China and far east Russia, but was now known as Greater Manchuria since it also comprised the Russian territory fronting the Sea of Japan, the slice of land once called Sikhote Alin, as far south as Vladivostok, now renamed Artom.
Greater Manchuria was a state the size of Mexico hovering off Japan’s west coast. Immediately south of Greater Manchuria the state of East China, color-coded white, extended from North Korea south along the coastline to Vietnam, the strip of land 1000 miles wide, the larger country of West China in red still three-quarters the size of the former communist China had been before East China and Greater Manchuria had split off. The screen zoomed in on Greater Manchuria, to the capital city of Changashan, then came down in satellite’s-eye-view of the city center to the Presidential Palace. The image froze and bled into the face of President Len Pei Poom, who looked startlingly young to be the dictator of the new nation. He wore an officer’s cap and a dark military uniform, but otherwise looked ordinary, someone who wouldn’t be looked at twice on the street.
“Len Pei Poom, Greater Manchuria’s president, and his new republic are getting on a lot of nerves lately. I don’t know if you knew this,” Donchez said, reaching into his humidor and offering Pacino a Havana cigar, “since somehow we’ve been able to keep it from the press, but we’ve been bankrolling Greater Manchuria through Israel for the last five months.”
“Why?” Pacino asked, taking the flame from Donchez’s lighter.
“I thought we were tight with East China since they broke off from the reds, and the East Chinese aren’t too friendly with Len now.”
Donchez lit his own cigar.
“We want to maintain ties to East China, and Russia, and the Greater Manchurians. The balance of power is crucial to our interests in Asia. We don’t want one big power there bullying everyone else and turning eastward toward us. Japan was weakened by the trade war, but now we see them building up their military, and now that Greater Manchuria is established, the Japanese see Greater Manchuria as a threat. Let me put it to you like this — Japan’s aggressiveness and military hardware are the gasoline. Greater Manchuria, as a perceived threat to Japan, is the firewood. If we get a spark, we are in trouble.”
“Wait a minute, why would Japan see Greater Manchuria as a threat?”
“Same reason they hated Korea. It’s based on geography, politics, national psychology. Japan is highly xenophobic — they’ve always been distrustful of outsiders. And now this Len character surfaces, unites this nation right across the pond from Japan, and the Japanese are worried.”
“That he’ll invade Japan? Greater Manchuria’s a land power, not a sea power. Len doesn’t even own a canoe, that I know about. And he has his hands full with East and West China and Russia. What would he care about Japan?”