“Bean, we’ve just been shot at by those Russian SAMs,” Frenchy told his friend. “Engage them with your missiles, and then let’s try to get out of dodge as fast as possible.”
Frenchy said as he began to toggle the safety off of his weapon system. In a matter of seconds, he had turned his missiles targeting system on, ensured he had a good lock on the radar system that was tracking him, and fired. In seconds, both of his HARM missiles were on their way to their targets.
Frenchy and his wingman began to take evasive maneuvers, weaving and bobbing, climbing and then plummeting. He had a sickening feeling that his missiles would not hit the enemy radar site before those SAMs reached him. As he turned on his electronic counter measures, he sent a radio message back to ground command letting them know that he had just been shot at, and that he had two SAM’s heading towards him.
The German and American aircraft immediately began to take evasive maneuvers, turning on their electronic counter-measures. The aircrafts’ automated self-defense systems began to drop chaff canisters as the missiles began to close in on their targets. Next, the F-16 and Eurofighters began to shoot out flares and additional chaff canisters in an effort to throw off the enemy missiles.
Unbeknownst to the US Air Force and NATO, the Russians had upgraded the tracking software on their missiles, which allowed them to better distinguish between chaff clouds, flare heat signatures, and an actual aircraft. The SA-21s could also see through the electronic trickery of the American electronic warfare pods and countermeasures being employed. Within minutes, the SAMs closed the distance on the American and NATO aircraft and collided with all four aircraft. As the flaming wreckages began to fall to the earth below, two parachutes could be seen drifting down to the ground. There was one German, and one American — the other two pilots were not so lucky.
As the four NATO aircraft were destroyed, the drone pilots watched helplessly as their drones were systematically destroyed by the SA-10s. At first, they had no idea they were being tracked; then they received a flash message that enemy SAMs had been fired at them and they should take evasive maneuvers. The best a drone could do was try to drop as low to the ground as possible and hope they could lose the enemy missiles in the ground clutter. Unfortunately, that did not happen.
The Russians had one A-50 Mainstay airborne early warning system (AWACs) aircraft providing exceptional targeting data for the SA-10s and SA-21 missiles. While the American HARM anti-radar missiles began to head towards the Russian radar systems, one of the other S-400 systems that had not engaged the American aircraft fired off a string of missile interceptors. Rather than turning off their radar systems, the Russians wanted to demonstrate the ability of their system to shoot down the American missiles. All four American HARM missiles were destroyed without further incident. The Germans never even got a shot off.
In the blink of an eye, the Russians had enforced the no-fly zone; they had successfully reasserted themselves as a World Power, not to be trifled with. They had effectively demonstrated to the US and NATO that they now controlled the skies over eastern Ukraine, and their show of force implied that if they wanted, Russian control could extend to all of Ukraine and the majority of Poland as well.
The Box
Duncan was eating a bagel and cream cheese at his desk as he read the most recent State Department cables from the night before. He was perusing through a message between the Secretary General of NATO and the US Secretary of State discussing the Russian no-fly zone.
“Mr. Secretary, I do not believe the Russians will try to enforce the no-fly zone,” wrote the NATO Secretary. “They will bluster and threaten, but in the end, they will blink.”
“For all our sakes, I hope they are right,” thought Duncan. “This has the potential to spiral out of control quickly.”
Just as he finished reading the cable, he was shoving the last bite of his breakfast into his mouth. Then General Luka barged into his office.
“Ambassador Rice, we have a serious problem,” he announced. His face was all red as he towered over Duncan’s desk.
The Ambassador almost choked as he tried to hurry up and swallow his food so he could speak without his mouth full. “Please,” he said as he grabbed a sip of coffee, “have a seat, General. Tell me what’s going on.” He had a sickening feeling in his stomach.
The general sat down and took a breath before continuing, “They did it. The Russians really did it.”
“Did what, exactly?” asked Ambassador Rice, confused.
“I just got confirmation from our people at the airfield. The Russians just shot down two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters that entered the no-fly zone. They also eliminated all seven of our drones that we had operating over eastern Ukraine,” General Luka explained. He was still almost out of breath and seething with anger.
“This can’t be happening,” Duncan bemoaned to himself. “I told them we needed to tread carefully with the Russians. We boxed them into a corner, and that left them with no option but to fight.”
“Take a breath, General, please,” urged the ambassador. “Let’s start from the beginning. You said the Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft and our drones. Have we recovered the pilots yet? What is their status?”
The general took a deep breath and held it for a second to try and slow his breathing down and regain his composure. “Yes, the search and rescue (SAR) unit recovered two of the pilots — one German, and one American. The other two pilots died when their aircraft blew up,” he said in a more controlled voice.
The wheels started twirling around inside of Ambassador Rice’s head. “I need to talk to the Secretary of State… and the US European Commander. Ugh. I’m going to have to be the one to tell Prime Minister Groysman about this incident too. I told them this could go south!”
Between all the competing thoughts, he realized that he needed all the facts before he talked to anyone. “General Luka, what is being done about this right now? What are the next steps?” He wanted to know if a retaliatory strike was already being planned.
The general, now more composed, responded, “I’ve alerted the Ukrainian desk at the Pentagon. The commander at the airfield has sent a flash message to NATO headquarters and US European Command headquarters as well—”
Just then, the Regional Security Officer (RSO) walked into the Ambassador’s office. Without so much as apologizing for interrupting, the RSO blurted out, “ — Sir, we have received an urgent communique from Washington. They are requesting that you speak with them down in the Box.” He indicated with his arm that they should both follow him down to the basement of the embassy.
Each embassy has a “Box,” which is a Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (SCIF). It’s typically a small room, big enough to seat maybe eight people, and it is always filled with secret and top-secret communication equipment and computers. It’s the one room in the embassy that is truly secured from electronic spying, and typically only a handful of people at an embassy have access to it.
As the group made their way down to the basement, the Ambassador saw that the Marine guards had increased their security posture. They were now wearing body armor, and instead of their usual firearms, they were carrying their M4s. Once they all reached the location of the Box, they filed in through the narrow steel door and took their seats at the small conference table. One of the communications specialists from the National Reconnaissance Office had already gotten the video feed set up. There were several screens: one had been labeled “White House Situation Room,” another “Pentagon Operations Center,” a third read “SHAPE Headquarters,” and the final one was labeled “US European Command.”