People continued to fill into the rooms at the various outstations, until someone came on from the White House Situation Room, indicating the meeting would start shortly. Then, the President of the United States walked into the Situation Room, and took his seat at the head of the table.
Gates wasted no time with formalities. “All right,” he said, “someone fill me in. What the devil is going on in Ukraine?”
General Wheeler, the Supreme Allied Command, Europe (SACEUR) who commanded NATO and US European Command spoke up first. “Mr. President, SACEUR here. Approximately 33 minutes ago, two American F-16s and two German Eurofighters flying under NATO control were shot down by Russian surface-to-air missile systems. They also shot down all seven of our surveillance drones, Mr. President.”
Gates turned to his National Security Advisor (NSA), retired general Tom McMillan, and barked, “What the blazes happened, general?! I thought the consensus from everyone was that the Russians would not do this. What went wrong?”
The NSA looked at the others in the room briefly, then back to the President. “Sir, it was our assessment that the Russians would not engage our aircraft to enforce their no-fly zone. Clearly, we were wrong, and there is no excuse Mr. President.” McMillan’s tone was as apologetic as the retired general could muster — he was never wrong. This was a new concept for him.
Travis Johnson, the Secretary of State, spoke up quickly, “Mr. President, I clearly underestimated the Russians’ resolve to enforce this no-fly zone. When I spoke with Foreign Minister Kozlov yesterday, he said that they would enforce it and encouraged us to not test them, but frankly, we believed them to be grandstanding. We thought that they might lock our aircraft up with ground radars, maybe attack one of our drones, but we did not believe they would attack our fighters,” he said in his thick Texas draw.
Tyrone Wilson, the youngest Director of the CIA (and a rising star, by all accounts) added, “We knew the Russians were moving SA-10s and their more-advanced SA-21s into the area, but our analysts believed that this was being done to enforce the idea of the no-fly zone. Our Russia desk has also reported a substantial increase in Russian troop movements towards the border region as well. In light of this recent act of aggression, we have to assume they may be positioning those forces on the border for a potential incursion into eastern Ukraine.”
The last statement only muddied the waters for the President. Gates was clearly getting mad, one could see that his cheeks were flushed red. However, he did not break into a tirade or outburst, at least not yet. He simply looked at his senior advisors, and asked the obvious next question, “So, what do we do now? How do we recover from this obvious miscalculation in intelligence?”
Tom McMillan spoke up first. “Sir, we need to move our forces in Ukraine and Europe to Threat Condition Delta. They need to be prepared in case the Russians are planning any further military action. Following that, we need to reach out to them diplomatically and get an explanation from them on why they openly attacked four NATO aircraft. Third, I recommend that we place additional military units in the US on alert in case they need to be rapidly deployed to Europe.”
James Castle, the Secretary of Defense, agreed. “I have to concur with the NSA. We should work to solve this diplomatically, but we also need to be ready to respond militarily, if necessary. The Russians just shot down four Allied aircraft. We need to make it clear to them that this kind of aggression will not be tolerated and that their actions will lead to swift repercussions. We should send more military aid to the Ukrainians along with additional military advisors, and then impose additional sanctions on Russia. This way we are not getting American or NATO troops involved in a direct military confrontation with Russia, but we would also send a strong message that this type of aggression will not be tolerated.”
Ambassador Rice could not believe what he was hearing. “Is everyone really so woefully unaware of how all these moves would be viewed by the Kremlin? I know I should just stay silent and let the others do the talking, but I’ve got to say something before things spiral out of control even further,” he thought.
Clearing his throat rather loudly, he got the attention of everyone on the screens. “Mr. President, this is Ambassador Duncan Rice, the Ambassador here in Kiev. If I may, I would like to say something,” he interjected, hoping the President would give him a chance to talk.
The President looked directly at him. “Ambassador Rice, I am glad you spoke up. You are the man on the ground there — I would like to know what your opinion is and what you think we should do,” Gates said encouragingly.
Duncan couldn’t believe it. “The President is not only going to let me speak — he wants my advice,” he thought in wonder. “Oh, look at Travis Johnson’s face — that’s priceless. He has no idea what I’m about to say, and that clearly makes him nervous.”
Assuming control of the meeting for a brief moment, Ambassador Rice began, “Mr. President, prior to becoming the Ambassador to Ukraine, I worked as the Deputy Chief of Mission to Belarus for four years. Before that, I was the senior political officer at our Moscow embassy. I have a lot of experience dealing with the Russian government and their allies.”
The President nodded and appeared impressed with his background so far.
Duncan continued, “The Russians view our involvement in the Ukraine as encroaching on their territory and interests, especially when we signed that ten-year lease on the Pryluky Airbase outside of Kiev four months ago. It would be like Russia signing a military lease with Tampico, Mexico, less than fifty-miles from the US border.”
Duncan knew he needed to get to his main point, but he also needed to set the context. “Mr. President, at the end of the Cold War, America and NATO agreed that we would not expand the NATO borders closer to Russia. Throughout the late 1990s, and then through the 2000s and 2010s, the US and NATO broke that deal time and time again. We accepted the Baltic States into NATO, then Poland, Hungary, and Romania. We even tried to get the Republic of Georgia to join.”
“With the Ukraine interested in joining the European Union, if their application were accepted, then joining NATO would be a forgone conclusion. Mr. President, America broke our deal with Russia, and Petrov sees the continued advance of American bases ever closer to their border as a direct threat. I believe that President Petrov has placed a line of no-return over Ukraine. He chose to implement and enforce this no-fly zone after our raid on their Special Forces compound. If we push Moscow further, I am confident the Russians will escalate this conflict, which is something none of us want to see,” Duncan said, hoping that he had not pushed things too far. He knew he was essentially speaking against what most of the President’s advisors were telling him, but he felt he had an obligation to give the President the best advice possible, even if Gates did not like or agree with him.
Tom McMillan jumped right in after Duncan had finished speaking, angrily asserting, “With respect, Mr. Ambassador, whose side are you on?! It sounds like you believe we have brought this upon ourselves and we should just back down and give Petrov what he wants.” His voice was dripping with disdain.
Before anyone else could add more to the discussion, the President interrupted to say, “Ambassador Rice, thank you for your candid and frank opinion. I am still a bit new to the history of Russia and NATO’s past dealings, but I can see how the Russians may perceive our new base as a direct threat to them.”