He got up, signaling that the meeting was over.
The senators left the Oval Office feeling that they had made their case to the President and signaled their support, should a conflict with Russia ultimately happen. They knew the President had also met with congressional leaders prior to their meeting so they would circle back with their colleagues from Congress to see how their meeting went.
It was nearly 9 pm and everyone was tired; it had been a very busy day in Washington. Everyone was reeling from the effects of the Russian Foreign Minister’s statement. He certainly caught the world’s eye when he announced that Russia was proposing a resolution to the UN security council, calling for the removal of all Ukrainian military forces from eastern Ukraine. Even Senator Leibowitz was shocked when he heard Kozlov call for a secession vote to take place in seven days. Sure, they “welcomed UN election observers” to ensure the election results would be credible, but who could really believe that? The phrase that made all the talking heads in DC the most uncomfortable, however, was when Kozlov stated, “At the invitation of the regional governors, Russia will move forces into eastern Ukraine to end the bloodshed and killing of innocent civilians.”
President Petrov went on TV shortly after Kozlov’s announcement. “The civil war in Ukraine has gone on long enough,” he announced. “Russia is not going to idly sit by and watch as one of its neighbors slaughters civilians and the fascist central government becomes a puppet of the EU and the Americans.”
Speaking as a school teacher giving a history lesson, Petrov continued, “At the end of the Cold War, NATO agreed not to encroach its border on Russia. For the past thirty years, America and NATO have broken their word, time and time again. Well — no more. This evening, Russian armed forces will cross into eastern Ukraine at the request of the regional governors to remove the NATO backed government forces and create a ‘free zone’ where people can once again leave their homes and bunkers and go about their daily lives. One week from today, they will be able to vote and determine, once and for all, if they want to stay a fascist puppet of the EU, or separate from Ukraine and form their own country.”
President Gates had just finished a late dinner with his senior advisor, Stephen Saunders, and his Chief of Staff, Ishaan Patel, to go over their meetings with the members of the House and Senate. Although he had spent several hours meeting members of Congress about what to do in Ukraine, nothing was really going to happen until the meeting he was about to have in the Situation Room. The President had given his national security team several hours to gather whatever information and intelligence they could before formulating a series of potential responses he could take. After the past couple weeks’ worth of intelligence miscues, the President was growing tired of incompetence. However, he realized that he still needed the national security team that he had, at least until he could find better replacements.
As the President walked into the Situation Room and sat down at the head of the table, Tom McMillan almost immediately started the brief. “Mr. President, the Russians sent us the lines of demarcation: they include the Kharkiv Region, down to the Dnieper River in the Dnipropetrovsk Region, to the Zaporiz'ka Region which includes the port city of Berdiansk, then to the Donetsk Region, which also includes the critical port city of Mariupol, and the Luhans'ka Region, which hugs Russia’s border.” He paused for a moment as the image of the demarcation was brought up on a map. Everyone could see that this was a large chunk of Ukraine that would essentially be ripped away from the central government. It also gave the Russians something they have been after for years — a major road and railway to Crimea.
President Gates surveyed the faces of everyone in the room. He could see that several of them wanted to fight; others were hoping they were not witnessing the opening hours of a new world war. “All right,” said Gates, “they’ve given us their terms. What are our options, and what are your suggestions?”
General Joe Hillman, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, spoke up first. “Mr. President, there are several options on the table. Some are military, some are political. I will go through the military options first, and then defer to the Secretary of State to discuss the political options,” he said, ever the professional.
The President gestured with his hand for Hillman to continue, and the general elaborated. “We can take a stand against the Russians, and let them know that if they cross the Ukrainian border, we will defend Ukraine with all of the forces we have in country (we would obviously need to rush additional forces to their aid). That is the most direct military option. Alternatively, we can abide by the terms the Russians have laid out while we work to move sufficient military forces into Ukraine to remove them if they do not leave willingly. Third, we could stand down. In that scenario, we would not get involved militarily, and we would let the Russians divide up the Ukraine.” As the general spoke, he scanned the room, looking to see if he could determine where most people appeared to be leaning.
Travis Johnson cleared his throat, indicating he was ready to go over the diplomatic options. The President looked at him and simply nodded. “Mr. President, we vetoed the Russian resolution a couple of hours ago when it was brought up for a vote in the Security Council. That was our first step. Our next step is to not recognize the results of the election next week. We can use several methods to make it clear that we do not legitimize these sham results. We can say that the election was rigged, that it was not properly monitored — there’s more, but you get the idea.”
He then brought up a slide that denoted economic options. “Next, we can impose significantly more harsh sanctions on Russia. We can leverage the Treasury Department and tell countries and businesses that if they do business with Russia then they cannot do business with the United States. This would essentially freeze them out of the global economy. Even if they tried to work through other banks, those banks would not be allowed to do business with any bank that works with the US. Very few banks or businesses would be willing to work with the Russians if this happened.” Johnson then ran through a number of other economic sanction options, from mild to extreme, and explained their varying effects on the Russian economy and people.
When Johnson had concluded his presentation, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) spoke up. “Mr. President, we have to be cautious with both the economic and military options. President Petrov is posturing right now. He is taking the position that we will not respond either militarily or economically to his provocative actions. While there are consequences to not standing up to him, there is also the potential of severe consequences if he decides to challenge us.”
NSA McMillan was the next to speak. “Mr. President, while the diplomatic option may sound like the best course, these types of harsh sanctions will ultimately result in a military confrontation. If we freeze the Russian economy out of the global banking system, that would be like dropping a nuclear weapon on Moscow. It would be foolish to not expect them to respond in kind.”
McMillan observed several members of the President’s senior circle; they all appeared to be nervous. “Look, we are stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. The DNI is right, we essentially have two options. We can either let the Russians divide up the Ukraine like they have wanted to do since the start of this civil war, or we can stand our ground and accept the fact that it is going to lead to a military confrontation.”