“There, I said it,” McMillan thought. “No one wanted to say that, but everyone knows it is heading that way.”
The President was not happy with the options being presented, but he did not see a lot of other possibilities either. He had been so focused on domestic and economic issues that he had left much of the foreign policy to his senior advisors. Clearly, that had been a mistake, but how should he correct it? “If we back down, what will be the consequences across the globe?” Gates asked. “How will this be perceived internationally?”
The NSA answered this question first. “In some circles, it would be viewed as weak, but in others, it would be viewed as prudent. If I had to hazard an estimate, I would guess that the Europeans will be evenly split. Some of them will be happy that we have not drawn NATO into a war — mostly the French, Italians and Spanish. The Nordic countries, the UK, Germany, and the Baltic states will side with us, as will Poland, Hungary and Romania. They all view the Russian moves as them trying to reclaim their old empire.”
McMillan continued, “China, Iran, and India are the bigger concerns here. They will view this as weakness on our part. Essentially, they will see that if we are threatened with actual military force, we will back down rather than use our military. Remember — the Russians have already shot down four of our aircraft and we have not responded to that yet. Now they will have essentially invaded a country that we have a military base in, and they would see us do nothing to stop it.” He wanted to make sure everyone understood the global repercussions of not responding.
He went on, “If China and Iran believe they can take military action against us or anyone else and face no consequences, then chances are, they will act out. The only thing keeping them in check is the knowledge that we will use our military force to stop them. If they feel that that is an empty threat, they will proceed, and then we’ll be faced with a set of new challenges to deal with.”
Everyone in the room stayed silent for a few minutes, ruminating on that heavy scenario. Most of them had not really considered how this was being perceived by China and Iran. Essentially, if they did nothing, then they were opening the US up to more hostile military actions by these other countries. Whereas, if America stood fast in Ukraine, they would send a message to the rest of the world that the United States will not back down, even if it means going to war to enforce America’s position and values.
The President responded, “I do not believe America should be the global policeman or the sole enforcer of UN or NATO resolutions. The American people are tired of fighting foreign wars where our country is not being directly threatened. On the other hand, I also know that if we give our word, then we need to honor it. In business, if you issue a threat to a contractor that you will fire them if they do not perform, then you need to follow through and terminate them if they fail to hold up their end of the bargain. America has given our word that we will honor our NATO pledge of mutual defense.” The President wanted to reinforce privately what he had said on numerous occasions publicly.
Gates then turned to look at Joe Hillman, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He asked, “General, how prepared are our forces to defend Ukraine right now? Is this even a viable option?”
The General took a deep breath and then exhaled. “Mr. President, right now we are not in a good position. Our Patriot battery at the Pryluky airbase can shoot down any Russian aircraft that attempt to enter Ukrainian airspace, barring they do not launch hundreds of aircraft or missiles at it. We can further support our air defense system by sending additional aircraft to our forward bases in Poland and Pryluky. As for ground forces, we have roughly 450 soldiers to defend the airbase, and another 780 military advisors. Most of them are Special Forces, but they are not line units that can stand up to a Russian tank division.”
“The Ukrainians have some armored and mechanized forces that can be used; however, they are not up to strength for stopping a Russian armored division. My military recommendation is this… we should not engage the Russians immediately. If we do, we will be defeated. We should wait until we can get sufficient forces in Ukraine and then we give them our ultimatum or be forcibly removed. I recommend we immediately deploy the 173rd Airborne Brigade out of Italy to our airbase at Pryluky. We should also get the 2nd Cavalry Regiment stationed at Vilseck, Germany, on the road ASAP. They can be at the airbase in roughly 30 hours. I recommend we begin the deployment of the 3rd infantry division and the 1st armored division as well. It will take time to get them deployed to Europe, so we should act quickly,” General Hillman explained.
President Gates turned to Secretary of Defense, James Castle. “Jim, I value your advice and opinion on military matters. What do you believe I should do? How would you approach this situation?”
Castle sat forward in his chair. “During the Cold War, the US ran a deployment exercise called Reforger. We essentially role-played a scenario of the Russians invading West Germany and the beginning of a hypothetical World War III, running up a massive mobilization and deployment of our forces from the US to Europe. I recommend that we initiate Reforger now, in real life. If we are able to negotiate a peaceful solution, then great. This will have simply been a tremendous training exercise (one that I might add we have not conducted since 1993). If things do turn into a shooting war, then we will be well on our way to having the forces and equipment either on the way to Europe or already in place.”
The President added, “My concern is that all of the preparations of Reforger might lead the Russians to believe that we are planning to attack them first, so they would preemptively initiate the conflict. At the end of the day gentlemen, our goal is not to go to war. We want to find a way to solve this problem without killing each other.”
The Secretary of Defense nodded, not in agreement, but to acknowledge that he had heard. “Mr. President, while I understand your apprehension, these mobilizations take a significant amount of time and resources to accomplish. We can make sure that we effectively handle the PR strategy to cover this as a training exercise, but if we do not do this, then we will likely be caught with our pants down when a conflict does inevitably begin.”
“Hmm… I see what you are saying,” conceded the President. “Ok, Castle, you’ve convinced me. Let’s get Reforger up and running… I still have concerns though, gentlemen. What happens if the other NATO members decide that they are not going to hold up their end of the agreement and send troops to support us if a war does start?”
Secretary Johnson responded, “Mr. President, you bring up a good point. If we are going to go to war with Russia, there are a lot of things we need to take into consideration, like the fact that not all NATO members will want to participate. Some members may even openly challenge our effort to get NATO involved. Also, we have to keep in mind that the Iranians and Chinese may see this as an opportunity to go rogue on us, believing that we are too occupied to challenge them. The Chinese have already annexed Mongolia, and are even now talking about this ‘Greater China’ strategy.” Johnson went on for another fifteen minutes, discussing the political fallout and ramifications of a potential military confrontation with Russia. The other men in the room were polite, but you could tell that most of them were resigned to a world in which conflict was most likely inevitable.
Gates finally butted in. “This is a test for NATO as well. If we do move to a conflict with Russia, and a member of NATO opts to not honor their obligation to the organization, then I want them removed from NATO with a five-year ban on reentry. If NATO is going to stay a relevant organization, then members will either be 100 % on board, or they will be out.”