As much as the Prime Minister wanted to end the separatist movement and evict the Russians once and for all, he didn’t realize that the Freedom Square Massacre had ignited new passion in the separatist movement in Eastern Ukraine. Russian propaganda and fake news began to pour across social media throughout Ukraine, hyping up the government’s use of soldiers against peaceful civilians. Footage of the head shot that killed Oleksandr Prasolov had been caught on someone’s smartphone, and was instantly turned into a powerful propaganda image against the central government in Kiev.
Though Ambassador Rice had no proof, he suspected that Oleksandr Prasolov had been killed by the SAD team, or that they had at least influenced the Ukrainian soldiers at Freedom Square. Regardless, after the massacre, the new head of the Russian separatist movement, Alexander Zakharchenko, organized a series of violent protests against the central government in a number of major cities across eastern Ukraine.
The situation continued to become more volatile. The US had been providing training to the Ukrainian military leaders for around six months, and those leaders began to become more and more confident in recommending a military solution to the separatist problem. General Luka worked with his partners at US Special Operations Command in Europe, and they were on board with providing additional US military advisors if needed.
After everything that had happened, Ambassador Rice sat at his desk, staring at two different paths. One option would lead them to further the diplomatic route, and the other would steer them into a swift military conflict to crush the separatist movement without mercy. Ambassador Rice was not sure what Prime Minister Groysman would choose.
The morning of Saturday, August 5th was a beautiful day. The sun was out, the birds were chirping, and most people were enjoying a lazy Saturday morning at the numerous outdoor cafes and restaurants around the Prime Minister’s office. Like many of the buildings constructed during the Soviet Union days, the PM’s office was a grand and majestic edifice, created to impose a feeling of power on all those who entered it.
General Luka opened up the enormous iron front door and held it open for Duncan and Colonel Avery to enter. Every time the three of them walked into that building, they could not help but feel small as they looked up at the high ceilings and large paintings of government officials.
As Ambassador Rice entered the PM’s office, he saw the head of the Ukrainian military and the Defense Minister seated on the couch in the parlor section of the room, casually talking with each other and smiling. He shook the Prime Minister’s hand and greeted him warmly in his native tongue.
Once the pleasantries had been completed, he walked over to the couch, where the other men were currently sitting. Duncan sat down and warmly accepted the cup of coffee being offered to him by the Prime Minister. As the Ambassador surveyed the leader’s face, he could tell that the job had aged him. He had substantially more grey hairs than the average young man in his late 30s, and the creases around his eyes seemed deeper than the last time they had met in person.
Many of the leaders who had come to power in the decades following the fall of communism had a history of going out of their way to enrich themselves rather than focusing on lifting up the people of their countries. Prime Minister Groysman was an exception to this rule. Ambassador Duncan saw in the man an intelligent visionary who truly wanted what was best for his people; he hoped he would stay in power for several more years.
As Duncan lifted his mug to his mouth, he took a deep breath through his nose to inhale the aromatic steam before taking a sip. He was a bit of a coffee connoisseur (his friends occasionally joked that he was a java snob), and for some reason the Prime Minister seemed to have a lock on the best coffee he had ever tasted. He had tried on numerous occasions to find out who his supplier was, but Groysman held onto that information like a closely guarded state secret.
“Mr. Ambassador, thank you for meeting with us this Saturday. As you know, it has been a trying time in Ukraine these past several weeks.” His face was solemn. “I assume you have reviewed the military plans to end the conflict in the east?” he asked.
“I have, Mr. Prime Minister. As a diplomat, I still recommend caution. Although the window may be closing, I do believe a peaceful solution to this conflict is possible. A military operation could result in hundreds of thousands of people being displaced as refugees, not to mention the civilian casualties that would surely be suffered,” Ambassador Rice warned. Duncan wanted to make sure the PM fully understand the consequences of moving forward with a military operation.
Groysman stiffened. He nodded in acceptance of what Ambassador Rice had said. “We are in a tough situation, Ambassador Rice. This conflict has been going on for several years. It has ruined our economy and divided our country. The separatist regions are governed by a small group of leaders, and they are controlled by a group of militias that number roughly ten to twelve thousand members. Unfortunately, the Russians continue to arm and train them. There are even unofficial Russian combat units operating in the East. If we do not act soon, they will become too strong and the divide in our nation will become permanent.”
The PM continued, “We have spent the last four months getting ready to conduct this operation. With the Russians putting forth a renewed effort to go after ISIS in Syria, they are currently sufficiently distracted from intervening here any further. Your own CIA does not believe the Russians will intervene militarily. Therefore, with the military advisors and training your country has provided, and the substantial number of weapons, food, fuel and vehicles your country has given us these past months, we now feel we are ready to move forward with the operation.” Groysman paused to take a sip of his coffee, as if the group was discussing their weekend plans and not a war.
He placed his coffee cup down and looked Ambassador Rice in the eyes, “In forty-eight hours, we will begin the operation. Our forces will begin to move into the Kharkiv Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Donetsk regional state administrations.”
This made it official. Duncan sat there for a moment, not sure what to say. “This is a dangerous move,” he thought. “It will certainly result in a military confrontation between separatist fighters and the Ukrainian military, but it could also result in a direct confrontation between the ‘unofficial’ Russian forces that are not ‘officially’ in the Ukraine. This is the exact situation I desperately wanted to avoid.”
Duncan put his own coffee down. He leaned forward, returning Groysman’s unrelenting eye contact. “Mr. Prime Minister, I implore upon you one last time to reconsider this action. We are starting to make headway with the Russians. Through the sanctions, we can get them to end their support for the separatist movement on their own. Then the movement will die and lose support.” He could see by the expression on his face that the PM did not want to wait any longer. “I ask for you to give diplomacy more time,” he pleaded, placing his hand over his heart. Duncan hoped that he might somehow be able to sway the man before him from making this potentially disastrous decision.