As Groysman sat there listening to the American Ambassador, he couldn’t help but marvel at how determined Ambassador Rice was to see a diplomatic solution to what everyone could see was a military problem. He sighed before speaking. “Ambassador Rice. I greatly appreciate the efforts of yourself and others to help solve the problems in Ukraine via diplomacy, but you must see that this has now moved to a problem that must be solved militarily. There are limits.”
The Prime Minister then leaned forward. “General Luka, along with my senior military advisors, assure me that our military is now up-to-speed and ready to handle this. We have received hundreds of Javelin anti-tank missile systems, fuel, food and other needed equipment to sustain a military operation such as this.” Groysman could see the diplomat was saddened by this information. “The Russians are now involved in the Syrian conflict, they are finally too busy to get heavily involved in our conflict. This is not 2014, and America has a new President, one who will not back down to threats made by President Petrov.”
Duncan could see the PM was not going to change his mind, so he changed tactics, “If I cannot talk you out of this military operation, then how can we support you to ensure its success?” Duncan hated the idea of offering military aid, but the Secretary of State and the President had told him in no uncertain terms that if he could not persuade the Ukrainian Prime Minister to avoid a military operation, then he was to offer whatever support would be necessary to guarantee its success.
PM Groysman leaned back in his chair. “I hold all the cards now,” he realized. “After all, the new American President does not want to lose face with the Russians. With all of the allegations of him being a Russian puppet after their meddling in the American election, he needs to look strong. They are eating out of my hands now.”
“Ambassador Rice, thank you for your offer. I truly do wish we could have found a diplomatic solution, and I will rely on your help once the time comes to pursue a diplomatic end to the conflict. Right now, I must do what the people who elected me are demanding, uniting our country and putting down this separatist movement.”
Groysman paused for a moment, calculating what he could ask for. “What I will need American help with is intelligence. We need help with surveillance, supplies, and logistical support while my ground forces carry out the actual fighting.”
Sighing, Duncan replied, “Well, you know that I wanted to try and talk you out of this confrontation. However, seeing that I cannot, I want to make sure it succeeds. I will hand over the rest of this discussion to General Luka and Colonel Avery, the US Air Force Liaison Officer to the Embassy,” the Ambassador said, nodding towards his two military counterparts for them to speak up.
He had to give them both credit; they were true professionals. Not once did they try to interrupt or add anything more to the discussion. They sat there passively and waited for their turn to talk, knowing that it would come. They knew the Ukrainians were not interested in further peace talks, but they also knew every effort had to be made before they moved forward with the military option.
General Luka cleared his throat before speaking. “Mr. Prime Minister and General Popko, as you know, the US leased the former military airbase at Pryluky, roughly seventy miles from the Boryspil International Airport in Kiev. We have spent the last two and a half months rebuilding it, transforming it into a training facility and forward operating base for the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to support your operations. Now that military action is going to move forward, you should go ahead and assign those ten Liaison Officers (LNOs) we had previously talked about, along with additional interpreters.” General Popko had been expecting the request. He smiled and nodded in agreement.
The Pryluky airfield had been Ukraine's primary Tupolev Tu-160 “Blackjack” bomber base until it was decommissioned at the end of 2012 due to budget cuts. When the US and NATO wanted to lease the base and build it back up, it was seen as a huge economic boon to the cash-strapped central government. It brought thousands of high-paying jobs to the local area and imported thousands of NATO servicemen who would spend hard currency (Euros and US Dollars) in the surrounding area. It was estimated the base would bring in several hundred million Euros a year in economic activity alone.
The Air Force LNO spoke next. “We have eight Predator drones, two Reapers, and two Global Hawks that are ready to provide 24/7 ‘round the clock surveillance of the battlefield as your forces move forward. We also have several electronic surveillance tools that will be made available. As we spoke about previously, starting tomorrow, we are going to close off the airbase to all non-essential personnel. We want to minimize the chance of any separatist forces gaining access to the base,” he said as he showed some of the plans they had for securing the airbase.
The Ukrainian government had leased the facility (much to the angst of the Russians) to the US three and a half months ago. The base was in a bad state of repairs when the Americans took it over. Then, a fleet of contractors and military engineers showed up and the base began to transform overnight. They immediately began to modernize the base, rebuilding living quarters and offices and upgrading the runway and other aircraft facilities. The US and NATO collectively poured in roughly $80 million to the facility, transforming it into a modern military facility.
“When your forces head into the disputed territory on Monday, they will have constant drone surveillance and signals intelligence, we’ll help you root these separatists out in short order,” the Air Force Colonel said, confident that this military operation would be wrapped up before the end of the year.
While Ambassador Duncan sat there listening to the military members talk, he had a sick feeling in his stomach that things were not going to work out quite as well as everyone thought it would. “I hope I’m wrong,” he thought, “but military operations seldom turn out how they are supposed to. The enemy always gets a vote in the matter, too.”
The group continued to talk for a while longer, going over details about the logistical support that would be needed. There was some debate as to what would be provided by the Americans versus NATO, but at the end of the day, a complete plan had been formalized.
Donetsk
The air was musty and humid as a group of well-muscled men and women sat in an old Soviet Union underground bunker in Donetsk. During the Cold War, this hideaway had been used as an air defense command center to help coordinate the air defense of the Motherland. Now it served as a secretive meeting room for the various leaders and rebel commanders of the Russian separatist movement.
Alexander Zakharchenko, the self-appointed Prime Minister of Donetsk People's Republic, pulled his lighter out of his cargo pocket and proceeded to ignite another cigarette. He took a long pull, letting the smoke fill his lungs as his body absorbed the nicotine. As he slowly let the smoke out through his nostrils, he turned to Anton Antyufeyev and said, “If what Strelkov says is true, then we have a serious problem.”
Anton took a puff from his own cigarette and just nodded. “We need to mobilize our militias and get ready to meet the government forces when they start to move into the cities and surrounding villages.”
Alexander continued smoking as he replied, “We backed down in Kharkiv, and they killed Oleksandr Prasolov. They believe that they succeeded in crushing our movement in Kharkiv, but they did not. Now the government thinks they can replicate the success that we gave them there and throughout our area of control. What they fail to realize is that we allowed them a victory in Kharkiv — we chose to not to use our soldiers in retaliation for killing Prasolov. We will not make that same choice here.”