“Signals intel analysis indicates a spike in Russian Pacific Fleet Command traffic 33 minutes before the incident and then for two hours following the incident, after which traffic returned to near normal levels except for comms to and from vessels in the area of the incident,” HOLMES replied. “Do you wish to deep dive or continue?”
Carl had been trained to follow his instincts. With AIs like HOLMES to do the actual analysis, instinct was the only competitive edge humans had over neural systems now. AIs were the masters of cold hard logic, but they sucked at Wild Assed Guessing.
“Continue. Related air or land-based military traffic analysis,” Carl replied.
“Satellite and signals intel indicate two Russian Federation Okhotnik Hunter drones were sent to the scene of the incident, arriving over the wreck at 0225 and returning to their base in Vladivostok at 0245. Their flight track is indicative of a dedicated reconnaissance mission rather than a standing combat air patrol.”
OK, this shit was starting to get interesting. Not a lot interesting, but a little. Ten minutes after the Russian freighter sinks, and two Russian drones are already on station right over the top of it, transmitting images? Pretty convenient they just happened to be available. Carl didn’t believe in coincidences like that.
“Wait, you said there was an uptick in Far East HQ comms traffic 33 minutes before the incident?”
“Yes.”
“Origin and target?”
“The origin of the transmission was Russian Pacific Fleet Command. The target is unknown.”
Carl sighed, “Deep dive. Other non-routine Russian military traffic in the area of Bering Strait between the uptick in comms traffic at incident minus 33 minutes and incident time zero.”
“There was a non-routine code burst on a Russian Federation military channel six minutes and twenty-eight seconds before the incident. The origin of the code burst was 100 miles north of Saint Lawrence Island. No other non-routine traffic reported.”
Damn, damn, damn. He got up from his desk, leaned up against one of the walls in his broom cupboard sized office and began bouncing on his heels. A ship explodes. Six minutes earlier, a burst of Russian military traffic from the middle of the Bering Strait. 33 minutes before that, an uptick in Russian Eastern Military District traffic. Wait.
“HOLMES, assume the transmission six minutes before the sinking was from a Russian Federation Naval vessel. Do we have any data on Russian naval vessels within missile range of the freighter at that time?” It was a long shot, but maybe a Russian missile test had gone haywire.
“Checking Satellite, Signals, Human Intelligence… no Russian naval vessel within range within the communications window,” HOLMES said. “Do you wish me to expand the search to vessels of other navies?”
“What? Repeat, contextualize.”
“I have a 98.4 % match on both a possible launch vessel and missile type,” HOLMES said. Carl could swear it sounded pleased with itself. “The time to target projected from the location of the comms burst at six minutes to the time of first mayday call from the Ozempic Tsar matches the profile of a US PIKE long-range stealth anti-ship missile launched from the Finnish Scorpene class submarine FNS Vesikko.”
Carl snapped forward in his chair, “Say again? Expand!”
“Signals intel indicates the FNS Vesikko sent a message to Finnish Fleet Command at Heikkila, Finland, one hour before the incident, reporting its position, bearing and speed. The FNS Vesikko is a refurbished French Scorpene class submarine equipped with the US PIKE long-range stealth anti-ship missile. My analysis shows that if the Vesikko had maintained its stated bearing and speed, its estimated position would correlate with the location of the anomalous comms transmission 100 miles north of Saint Lawrence Island. A PIKE missile fired by the FNS Vesikko at this position would have taken six minutes and eighteen seconds to reach the Ozempic Tsar, which correlates with the timing of the anomalous radio transmission. The triangulation of these three data points gives a 98.4 percent certainty that if the Ozempic Tsar was destroyed by a naval vessel, it was a PIKE missile fired by the FNS Vesikko.”
He was starting to sweat. He wasn’t a small man — in fact he was carrying about fifty pounds more than he probably should be, but it would usually take a lot more than just sitting in his chair in the cold corridor under the Embassy compound to make him break out in a sweat. This sweat wasn’t exertion, it was fear.
“Would a what-you-call-it missile…”
“AGM-158C PIKE.”
“Yeah. Would one of them be enough to sink a 400,000-ton freighter inside ten minutes?”
“If it successfully struck the ship’s hydrogen storage or fuel cells, one such missile would be sufficient. Standard military doctrine would dictate two are fired to secure catastrophic target destruction.”
Carl whistled, “A double tap. Just to be sure.”
“Please repeat. Was that a question or comment?”
“Neither. Please tell me there were no US naval vessels, capable of firing a PIKE missile, inside that kill zone at the time of the incident.”
There was a slight pause, then HOLMES responded, “The nearest long-range cruise missile capable US vessel was the subsea drone USS Venice Beach, which was on station 290 miles south-southeast at the time.”
“Inside missile range?”
“300 nautical miles,” HOLMES said. “The USS Venice Beach could also have engaged the Ozempic Tsar with its missiles at that range but it would have had to fire thirty minutes earlier. I am unable to locate any US Pacific Fleet Command traffic to or from the USS Venice Beach at that time.”
“But that is around the time of the Russian Pacific Fleet comms burst. They might have been reporting on a suspected US missile launch. Dammit, this is ugly. HOLMES, deep dive Navy command and control logs and check whether the Venice Beach fired a PIKE missile in the last 24 hours. Check whether any US Navy vessel in the Northern Pacific has fired any sort of weapon at all. Check for any intel indicating that Russia has the capability to hack a US naval vessel and order it to fire one of its missiles. I want you to run three scenarios: one, the Finnish submarine sank the Russian Freighter. Two, the USS Venice Beach sank the freighter. Three, an unknown Russian vessel, aircraft or land-based missile battery sank it. Summarize potential supporting data and assign probabilities then send the report to my laptop with a copy to the Senior Defense Attaché and NSA Russia Desk.”
“Will do Carl. What should I title the report?”
Carl thought about it, “Heading: Battle of Bering Strait. Subhead: Who killed the Ozempic Tsar?”
“Yes Carl. Compiling.”
Carl drew a dot on a page and wrote OzTsar next to it, then a ring and FNS Vesikko at six minutes eighteen seconds. Further out at thirty minutes, USS Venice Beach. It was the time correlation between the position of the Finnish sub, the flight time of a PIKE missile, and the timing of that comms burst from the middle of the Bering Strait that bugged him the most.
“HOLMES, do you believe in coincidence?”