The correspondent 'Probus' evidently had connections to someone in Whitehall because on 27 July The Times published another letter from him in which he wrote, 'It is said, this monster is to be sent to St Helena, and there to be guarded by an English regiment.' This was, of course, an accurate forecast but for several weeks the politicians had been undecided on the best course to take. The key players in deciding Napoleon's fate were Lord Liverpool, the Prime Minister; Lord Castlereagh, the Foreign Secretary; Lord Bathurst, the Secretary of State for War and the Colonies; Lord Melville, the First Lord of the Admiralty; and John Barrow, the civil servant who was the Permanent Secretary of the Board of Admiralty. The Duke of Wellington, who was in Paris during the course of the discussions, played no part in the final decision. He had strongly resisted the demands of the Prussians who wanted to execute Napoleon, and, according to Lady Shelley who met him at a party in Paris, he thought that 'Bonaparte ought to be shut up at Fort St George, as, by the laws, his life cannot be forfeited.'
Lord Liverpool had originally been of the opinion that the best course would be to deliver Napoleon up to King Louis XVII of France but by 15 July he had decided that it was more appropriate that the British should take responsibility for him. In a letter to Castlereagh, who was in Paris, he wrote:
we should be at liberty to fix the place of his confinement, either in Great Britain, or at Gibraltar, Malta, St Helena, the Cape of Good Hope, or any other colony we might think most secure. We incline at present strongly to the opinion that the best place of custody would be at a distance from Europe, and that the Cape of Good Hope or St Helena would be the most proper stations for the purpose.
Other possible places mentioned in the newspapers were Dumbarton Castle in Scotland and the Tower of London. By 21 July, when news of Napoleon's surrender to Captain Maitland had reached London, Lord Liverpool had decided that it would be a mistake to confine Napoleon in Britain: embarrassing legal questions might arise; he would become an object of curiosity or even of compassion; and his presence might stir up ferment in France. He sent another letter to Castlereagh setting out the latest thinking:
Since I wrote to you last, Lord Melville and myself have conversed with Mr Barrow on the subject, and he decidedly recommends St Helena as the place in the world the best calculated for the confinement of such a person . . . The situation is particularly healthy. There is only one place in the circuit of the island where ships can anchor, and we have the power of excluding neutral vessels altogether, if we should think it necessary. At such a distance and in such a place, all intrigue would be impossible; and, being withdrawn so far from the European world, he would very soon be forgotten.
On 27 July, the day after the Bellerophon's arrival in Plymouth, the weather was hot and sunny with the lightest of breezes. It was a perfect day for hiring a boat and by midday the waters of the Sound were a colourful and jostling mass of yachts, local fishing vessels and every rowing boat available. Lieutenant Bowerbank estimated there were ten thousand people gathered around the ship, a number confirmed by Maitland who reckoned there were at least a thousand vessels, each carrying more than eight people. Most noticeable were the large numbers of pretty young women and fashionable ladies dressed in their Sunday best, but there were also many naval officers, red-coated army officers, and smartly attired gentlemen who took off their hats respectfully when Napoleon showed himself - as he did before and after having his dinner at 6 pm. He seemed astonished by the crowds and, as in Torbay, was impressed by the beauty of the women. Among the sightseers was Captain Maitland's wife who came alongside the Bellerophon in a boat with Sir Richard and Lady Strachan. Napoleon went to the gangway, removed his hat, and asked her if she would come up and visit him but she shook her head. Maitland told him that his orders were so strict that he could not allow even her on board.
'That is very hard,' Napoleon said. 'Milord Keith is a little too severe, is he not, Madame?' and, turning to Maitland, he told him that she was much prettier than the portrait he had seen of her. When Maitland told him that Strachan was second in command of the Channel fleet he remarked that he seemed a very young man to hold so high a rank.
At 11 o'clock the next day Admiral Keith paid a visit to Napoleon but it was an unsatisfactory meeting. Keith had recently been informed that Napoleon must be treated as a general and not as a former head of state. He had also learnt that the politicians had finally decided on St Helena, but he was not yet at liberty to reveal this. Napoleon hoped for much from a meeting with such a high-ranking officer, especially as he had received a friendly letter from Keith thanking him for saving the life of his nephew who had been gravely wounded and taken prisoner in the skirmishes before the Battle of Waterloo. Napoleon had arranged for a surgeon to treat his wounds. Keith later reported that they talked on many subjects - Toulon, Egypt and the East Indies - but he could give no satisfactory answers to Napoleon's questions. He could not allow him to walk on shore, even with officers attending him. He could not tell him what was to become of him or when his fate was to be determined.
That afternoon several transport ships entered Plymouth Sound and passed close to the Bellerophon. They were carrying French prisoners who had been taken at Waterloo, many of them wounded and bandaged. It was a depressing sight for the members of Napoleon's party who were on deck at the time and must have seemed a bad omen for what was soon to come.
On 31 July Admiral Keith returned to the Bellerophon bearing the news that they were dreading. He was accompanied by Major-General Sir Henry Bunbury who had arrived from London the previous day. Bunbury was Under-Secretary of State for War and he had with him a letter which set out the decision of the British Government. In the after-cabin of the ship Bunbury translated and read out the letter to Napoleon:
It would be inconsistent with our duty to this country, and to His Majesty's Allies, if we were to leave to General Bonaparte the means or opportunity of again disturbing the peace of Europe, and renewing the calamities of war: it is therefore unavoidable that he should be restrained in his personal liberty to whatever extent may be necessary to secure our first and paramount object.
The island of St Helena has been selected for his future residence. The climate is healthy, and its local situation will admit of his being treated with more indulgence than would be compatible with adequate security elsewhere.
The letter went on to say that Napoleon would be allowed to take with him three officers, his surgeon, and twelve domestics or servants. Rear-Admiral Sir George Cockburn would be conveying them to St Helena and would be ready to embark within a few days. 'It is therefore desirable that General Bonaparte should make without delay the selection of the persons who are to accompany him.'
Napoleon listened carefully without interrupting and did not appear surprised by the contents of the letter. When asked whether he wished to have a written translation made he said there was no need because he had understood perfectly what had been said. He was handed the letter and laid it on the table. After a pause he launched into a passionate and eloquent protest. The British Government had no right to dispose of him in this manner, he said, and he now appealed to the British people and the laws of the country against its decision.