“Flash blindness and a missile?” the President asked, watching the general nod in response. “Terrorist, in other words?”
The DCI spoke up again from Langley. “We don’t think it likely, Mr. President. We think the most credible possibility is a midair collision and explosion. If this was a terrorist act, it would require a missile, a place to launch it from, and the uncertain assumption that flash-blinding the pilots would bring down the aircraft.”
“Okay.”
“Then, too, Sir,” the DCI went on, “there’s the matter of the type of missile required. It couldn’t be a heat seeker because an infrared tracker would go for the engines. You’d have to have a pretty sophisticated missile to fly close to a cockpit and explode without physically damaging the aircraft, and we think that unlikely.”
The President’s eyes snapped to the Air Force chief of staff, who was shaking his head. “General? You disagree?”
“Absolutely. A sophisticated missile is likely. In fact, this is the signature of a laser-guided missile. That so-called missing aircraft could easily have been the target designator, holding what is essentially an invisible infrared laser dot on the seven-forty-seven while a confederate below fires the missile. All they’d have to do is program the missile to detonate by internal radar a hundred yards out.”
“That’s your guess?” the President asked.
“No, Sir. That’s our assessment. It fits.”
“A missile with a phosphorous warhead?” the President asked.
“Precisely.”
“For the record, Mr. President,” the DCI cut in, “CIA believes the more credible possibility is a midair collision. I mean, after all, that other aircraft is missing. If he was just the target designator aircraft, where is he?”
“Ah, Mr. President, Jake Rhoades here.”
“Go ahead, Jake,” the President prompted.
“We’re told the missing business jet cut in front of the Meridian flight just before the explosion. We have that information directly from Hong Kong Approach. Whether they collided or helped fire a missile, that jet is likely to be involved.”
The President was nodding slowly. “There is a similarity here to SeaAir. Both aircraft were over water. If a missile was fired from a boat in both cases, that fits.”
“Sir,” the DCI replied, “remember that we don’t have any idea what brought down the SeaAir MD-eleven.”
“True.” The President nodded, glancing at the general. “Wait a minute. General, could a target designator damage a pilot’s eyes?”
The general shook his head. “Not like this. Maybe over time, but it’s an invisible infrared beam, Sir. It just puts an invisible hot spot of coded light on the side of whatever we want to hit, and the missile recognizes the dot and flies to it. The designator is not designed to do any damage itself.”
“Okay.”
“But a small phosphorous warhead or, to be fair, the flash of exploding fuel in a collision, as Director Herd postulates, could easily flash-blind.”
Stella Mendenhall spoke up from NTSB headquarters. “Mr. President, two points of difference on SeaAir. First, the SeaAir accident occurred during bright daylight, and even a phosphorous explosion at close range would probably not be enough to temporarily blind a pilot. Could it hurt his eyes and make it difficult to see around the huge spot in the middle of his vision? Certainly. But in bright daylight the pupils will be contracted, and I doubt anything but a nuclear fireball could do the job. Therefore, I see no possible connection between these two incidents.”
“Okay, but—” the President began.
“And,” she continued, “one other point, please. I can’t imagine how a seven-forty-seven could physically collide with a large business jet the size of a Global Express, create an explosion of fuel bright enough to blind both pilots, and not destroy the nose section and probably the cockpit of the airliner in the process. From what we’re hearing, the copilot never reported any physical damage to the jet until they struck an ILS tower by the runway trying to land.”
“But, Stella,” the President said, “in theory, could Director Herd’s assessment be right?”
“Could a midair, you mean, cause a big enough explosion to blind?”
“Yes,” the President responded, knowing the NTSB official would choose her words carefully and try to refrain from crossing swords with the DCI.
“Sir, I can’t say it isn’t possible. I just don’t know how.”
The President sighed. “Fair enough. Okay. We may have a sophisticated attack, or we may have a midair collision, but what we don’t have is a clear indication of which one and who, if anyone, attacked. That sum it up?”
“Yes, Sir, I believe it does,” the DCI said.
“Jake,” the President said suddenly, “what’s the status of the Bureau’s thinking on sabotage or terrorism in the SeaAir crash?”
Jake cleared his throat before answering. “Mr. President, all we have right now are deep suspicions. There are several minutes missing from the SeaAir cockpit voice recorder that probably could have given us substantial clues, but without that, or at least some physical evidence of sabotage, neither we at the Bureau, nor Stella and her folks at NTSB, can say what caused the SeaAir pilots to lose control, let alone answer the question of whether a criminal act is involved. We know the MD-eleven didn’t explode. We have no evidence or reason to suspect a missile. It’s as if the pilots just suddenly clicked off their autopilot and keeled over for no apparent reason. Naturally, all of us at the Bureau are haunted by the incorrect initial terrorist conclusion we jumped to in the TWA 800 disaster a few years back, and I know we’re being super careful on this one, but the bottom line is, we just don’t have any evidence as yet in either direction.”
The President nodded. “As I said an hour ago, if anyone can prove to me that Cuba is responsible for downing that SeaAir MD-eleven, we’ll hit Fidel immediately. But let’s say that SeaAir is not Cuba’s fault. Let’s say you fellows and gals at the Bureau determine later that it is a terrorist act. And let’s say, further, that the Hong Kong thing is a terrorist act, and let me go even further into fantasy and speculate that we decide the same organization is probably responsible. Then we’re facing a real specter: Who the hell is attacking airliners, how are they doing it, and what do they want? This is the second one inside six weeks. It seems to me those questions would become a matter of great national urgency, because we have no group taking credit, we have no demands, and that means we have a terrorist organization that will undoubtedly keep on doing whatever they’re doing until they’re ready to reveal themselves and tell us what they want.”
“Mr. President,” the DCI replied, “with all respect, is there a question in there somewhere that we can answer?”
The President shook his head. “I guess not, Richard. I’m just worried.”
“Sir, as you know, other than the possibility of Cuban involvement, we simply do not see any substantive reason to believe that the SeaAir accident was terrorist, let alone a new terrorist group. Perhaps the best reason is the one you cited yourself, the utter lack of anyone taking credit. Any organization that wants to kill a jumbo jet and all aboard wouldn’t hesitate to crow about it early on. And why be subtle about it? If you’re going to mount an operation to bring down a civilian airliner and commit mass murder to make a point, why run the risk it will be labeled an accident?”
“Okay, Richard, the Company’s caution is noted and appreciated. Stella? Is there any aspect of SeaAir that resembles what we know so far of Hong Kong?”