There was silence as all eyes shifted from the Leader of the Revolution to Nafissi. All waited to see if Nafissi would pounce and attack, defending his decision directly and giving the Leader a retort, or ignore the comment about the "failure" and bide his time. Nafissi thought about his options, carefully guarding against any show of emotion. Deciding that now was not the time or place, he did not push. Instead, he simply reported the status of his military forces and what actions he had taken to safeguard the state and the council against retaliation by the Egyptians. "We continue to maintain our vigilance in the Western Desert. Air defense forces are fully alert and interceptors on standby. A flotilla of missile boats has been dispatched from Tobruk to find and shadow Egyptian naval forces that were reported headed west toward our territorial waters. If the Egyptians begin a buildup of forces in their Western Military District, we will implement our mobilization plans."
As if watching a tennis match, all eyes shifted back to the Leader of the Revolution to see what he would say next. The two antagonists, their eyes locked, considered their next move. The Leader spoke first.
"And if the Egyptians do strike, how far do we let them go? You know as well as I that we cannot do any more than delay the Egyptians if they wish to attack in force."
Nafissi leaned back and smiled. "Yes — alone, we cannot stop them. But we are not alone."
"The Soviets have no desire to commit their forces. Their ambassador has already informed me that their ground forces are being withdrawn into assembly areas where they will wait for redeployment."
Nafissi continued. "The Russians cannot be allowed to leave. They have on many occasions pledged their support. While none of us can, in our hearts, forgive them for what they did to our brothers in Iran, we must overlook that in our time of crisis. Instead, we must do as the Egyptians themselves did: use them. When it fits our need, we will invite them in, take their equipment, and accept their advisors and troops. When it no longer suits our needs, we will send them home. Right now, we need them. So long as they are here, the United States will restrain the Egyptians. Even if Soviet ground and air units do not actively participate in combat, the Egyptians dare not confront them. We must keep the Soviets here, regardless of whether they help us or not."
"How do you propose we do that, my friend?"
Pointing to the television in the corner, Nafissi smiled. "The American and European media is already doing that for us. We must play upon the Soviets' fear of losing influence and face in this region and world. So long as the American forces are in Egypt, the Soviets must stay. So long as the Soviets stay, the Americans must stay. With their forces near at hand, any confrontation will be limited in size of forces used and area of operation. With American forces west of Alexandria and the Soviets west of Tobruk, their mere presence will ensure that the conflict remains limited and controllable.
"The Europeans will also assist us in limiting the war. Fearful that any type of confrontation involving the U.S. and the Soviets will end their cherished glasnost, they will exert pressure on the U.S. to defuse the confrontation. With luck, if the Egyptians are foolish enough to attack, we can avenge the defeats we suffered in 1977 by meeting whatever limited force they use to retaliate head-to-head, on equal terms. A defeat in open battle for the Egyptian forces, regardless of how small the force, would open the doors for a campaign to discredit their government. In the ensuing chaos, opportunities would abound."
The Leader of the Revolution thought about Nafissi's proposal. "Why would the Russians continue to support our efforts? While we may be able to fool some that what happened in Egypt today was not our doing, the Russians know. Besides, there is the chance that the Americans will come to the aid of the Egyptians. The American President, after all, was nearly assassinated. They have attacked us in the past for less. It would be all too easy for the American fleet in the Mediterranean to lock out further Russian support. Their Air Force will throw a shield over us that no one will penetrate. Under that shield, we, along with the few combat troops the Russians care to sacrifice, will wither away like leaves before the winter wind. How do you propose we neutralize the Americans?"
"We attack the Americans in their own homes through television. There are many antiwar factions in the United States. Properly manipulated, the Americans will be far too divided to take effective action."
"What you propose, Nafissi, is playing with the devil. If we misjudge, as your people did today, we will be finished."
Again ignoring the remark about failing, Nafissi continued to smile. "It is only through great challenges that great things are achieved. Mohammed was only one when he came out of the desert. But he conquered much because he had a pure heart and the fire of the True Faith in him. Egypt is a house of sand. We can scatter it before us and establish ourselves as the rightful leaders of the Arab and Islamic world. Let the Egyptians strike the first blow. Let them pound their chests in feigned righteous indignation. In the end, we will prevail because we are bold and we believe."
Nafissi leaned back and waited. The members of the council who sat between him and the committee looked at one, then the other, waiting to see who spoke first. Finally, the Leader of the Revolution stood. "There is much to do. We must go forth into danger with courage and a pure heart. With Allah as our guide, we cannot fail in our noble task."
As the members of the council left the room, those who were followers of Nafissi looked into his eyes and saw the smile concealed from the rest. They, like him, were prepared to seize victory from the flames of disaster.
Outside, one of his supporters, a frown on his face, approached Nafissi, leaned over to him, and whispered into his ear. "What do we do, my friend, if the Egyptians do not oblige us and strike?"
In the half-moon, a huge smile shone on Nafissi's face. "Have no fear of that, brother. They shall strike. And if they hesitate, we shall encourage them."
Still not convinced, the supporter continued to badger Nafissi. "Encourage them? How?"
"In the night, who is to say which man cast the first stone? Even if foreign intelligence detects our little ploy, it will be our word against theirs. Most Westerners, especially Americans and Europeans, will choose to believe that which they want. If by believing their government, they place themselves in a position where they must do something that is dangerous or expensive, they will ignore it."
"How can you be so sure?"
Tiring of the stream of questions, Nafissi stopped. "My friend, during the 1970s, Americans spent millions trying to save whales and little white furry seals but didn't lift a finger to stop the slaughter of three million Cambodians. Do you really believe that the American public and its Congress will care what happens between two Arab countries?"
Finally convinced, the supporter also began to smile. "Yes, I see. You are right."
Nafissi, glad that the conversation was over, turned and continued to walk. He didn't care whether his man understood what was happening. Only he needed to.
Chapter 8
When the situation is obscure, attack.
Banking slightly to the left, the pilot of the E-2 Hawkeye AWACS began the northbound leg of his orbit. Cruising at a speed of three hundred miles per hour and at an altitude of twenty-five thousand feet, the E-2 was monitoring air and naval activity off the Egyptian and Libyan coast. The aircraft commander was under strict orders to maintain a position at least two hundred miles from the coast in an effort to keep U.S. personnel and aircraft from becoming involved in a sudden flare-up. Even at that range, however, the APS-125 radar, linked to an advanced radar processing system, was able to monitor everything that flew or floated within a range of three hundred miles. That included a Soviet Ilyushin 76 Mainstay airborne warning and control aircraft operating to the west near Benghazi. Like the Hawkeye, it was watching and reporting.