"Why do we think that, Scott?" Horn asked.
Dixon paused to think about his answer before he continued. "Command and control, sir. Once it's been launched, the 1st Army would be hard pressed to control the airmobile brigade, which we believe has Al Jagbub as an initial objective and the oil line from Sarir to Marsa al Harigah, west of Tobruk, as its secondary objective. That operation, more of a raid and diversion, would do little to support the 1st Army's main operation directly. Commitment of the parachute brigade, Egypt's one and only, will be a decision made at national level, and then only if the target is worth the investment of that valuable asset."
INITIAL EGYPTIAN DEPLOYMENTS
Horn considered Dixon's response. It made sense. It was logical. And it was probably correct. The only thing that bothered him was the last comment about the parachute brigade. Horn hated it when professional soldiers used terms like "valuable asset" and "investment." Stockbrokers and bankers used those terms to discuss inanimate objects. A parachute brigade was a living and breathing organism. It was populated by real people, soldiers. Those soldiers would have to fight and win or lose, perhaps die, regardless of whether their superiors made a wise "investment." Horn believed in calling it as it was. He was surprised that Dixon, normally quite blunt when it came to such matters, resorted to using those terms. But he decided to let the issue pass. This was neither the time nor the place to have a discussion on semantics. No doubt, Horn thought, from his looks and actions, something was troubling Dixon.
With a wave of his hand he signaled Dixon to continue.
"We believe, given this posturing of forces, the Egyptians will strike west along two main axes of advance. The main effort will be by the 22nd Mech Division followed by the 5th Armored Division along the coastal road from Amsaad to Kambut and then Tobruk. A supporting attack by the 14th Armored in the south is meant to spread the Libyan defenses thin and, should the main effort along the coastal road be stopped, provide the Egyptians with a force postured to out-flank the Libyans and drive onto Tobruk from the south via Al Adam. Once the Egyptians have secured Tobruk, in particular thie oil terminal at Marsa al Harigah in the north, Al Jagbub in the south, and severed the oil line between Sarir and the coast, it is believed they will stop, declare the operation a success, and withdraw." Pausing, Dixon looked at Horn and awaited his response.
Once more Horn considered Dixon for a moment. Again Dixon was overlooking the obvious. The war would not be over until both sides decided it was over. Horn was about to ask Dixon if he really believed the Libyans would simply allow the Egyptians to roll in, occupy Tobruk, and then roll out again, but decided against that. No point in pounding Dixon into the ground. If he was having some type of personal problem, slapping him about in front of the staff wouldn't help. He made a mental note to get together with the chief of operations later and discuss Dixon in private. Perhaps there was something he could do.
Turning his thoughts back to the matter at hand, Horn studied the map while he sipped coffee. "Anyone have any idea when H hour is for the Egyptians?" he asked no one in particular.
When no one else provided the answer, Dixon responded. "We believe some time in the next twenty-four hours — forty-eight at the outside. All dispositions seem to be complete, including placement of combat service support units."
Turning to the chief of intelligence, he nodded. "Ed, tell me what the other people think about all this."
As Linsum stood up, two of his people placed an acetate overlay on the situation map. Walking up to the map, Linsum took the pointer from Dixon and looked at the overlay for a moment before turning around to Horn and starting. "You're not going to like this. You have before you, General, in the blue folder, the current intelligence summary. I'm not going to go over all the details and statistics. Nor am I going to beat you to death with a lot of double-talk. Fact of the matter is that we really don't know what is going on in Libya. The mobilization of Revolutionary Guard units, the People's Militia, and the reorganization of several regular army units has made the entire prewar organization a muddle. On top of this, the flow of additional Soviet and Cuban personnel and the staging and movement of units leaves us with no clear picture of what exactly is going on."
Putting his elbows on the table, Horn rested his head in his hands. "You're right, Ed. I don't like this. Just fucking great. I'm supposed to make recommendations back to the Joint Chiefs on possible use of U.S. forces in the area and you can't even give me a rough idea on what the other people have. What do we know for sure?"
Playing with the pointer, Linsum continued. "We know that a new Soviet headquarters became operational this morning in Benghazi. It's an army-level headquarters with the senior officer in Libya, Colonel General Uvarov, commanding. He had been in Libya overseeing the deployment and joint exercise. A veteran of the Iranian conflict, Uvarov is noted for being able to operate independently and is an aggressive fighter. The influx of Soviet and Cuban personnel continues to increase, giving him a credible force with which to fight. Current figures put the total number of Soviet and Cuban personnel in country at seven thousand and eighteen thousand, respectively. Most of these have come from other African countries, explaining why there has been little increase in movement across the Med or Atlantic. The one notable exception has been the movement of a parachute brigade and a fighter regiijient from Iran to Addis Ababa in Ethiopia."
Surprised, Horn sat up. "What are they up to?"
"Either they will reinforce the parachute battalion that is securing the airfield at Al Fasher or they will move into Libya and become an operational reserve for Uvarov."
"The airhead, Jim — will the Soviets continue to use their airhead in Sudan? The time limit agreed upon by both countries is about to run out. Any chance of the Sudanese throwing the Russians out?"
Turning to the map, Linsum looked at it for a moment as if it would give him the answer. "None, sir. If the Soviets demand they be allowed to use the airfield indefinitely, I believe the Sudanese will give in. They already have their hands full dealing with the Sudanese People's Liberation Army in the south and control very little of the southern region. They do not have the capability to throw the Russians out. Therefore, any attempt to resist the Soviet intervention would be, politically speaking, pointless. By giving the Soviets what they want, the government of Sudan at least keeps the hope alive that the Soviets will pull out when they are finished in Libya. If they resisted, the Soviets, using support of the SPLA movement as a pretext, would take whatever they want, permanently. In my opinion, given the remoteness of the region and the fact that it has practically no strategic value to the U.S., I believe the Soviets know they face no risks and will hold on to the airhead at Al Fasher as long as they need to keep their air corridors to Libya open."
Again Linsum paused while Horn looked at the map and thought. "Ed, see me after this. I need more info on the situation down there and some options." Turning to Dixon, the general pointed. "Colonel, you come too. I may want your Special Forces people watching that airfield ready to go in and stir things up. I don't believe in giving anyone a free ride. That air corridor from Iran to Ethiopia to Libya is the biggest Achilles' heel I've ever seen. The only question is how best to sever it." Turning back to Linsum, he signaled him to resume the briefing with a nod.