The number of carriers our nation requires is ultimately determined by its commitments in the post-Cold War world. In a world without superpower confrontation, our "enemies" become "rogue states," like North Korea and Iraq, while international terrorists, criminal cartels, and chaotic regional, ethnic, or tribal conflicts now are the key threats to day-to-day peace. In today's world order, America's major overseas commitments and interests lie mainly outside the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, our victory in the Cold War has burdened the U.S. with responsibility for peacekeeping and stability in areas that, frankly, most Americans would prefer to ignore. Consider the following list of global flashpoints:
• North Korea-On the verge of starvation and collapse, North Korea continues to threaten the South Koreans and other nations in the region. It has recently deployed the Tapo-Dong ballistic missile, and may have one or two nuclear warheads.
• People's Republic of China (PRC)/Republic of China (ROC/Taiwan)- Following their confrontation over democratic elections and ballistic-missile tests/exercises in 1996 (in which two American CVBGs intervened), these two estranged countries continue to face off in a slow simmer.
• India/Pakistan-As both countries celebrate their golden anniversaries, they confront each other over disputed borders and ethnic and religious differences. An accelerating nuclear arms race raises threats of regional nuclear war, and the proximity of China only exacerbates the problem.
• Persian Gulf-UN-sponsored sanctions and "no-fly" operations against Iraq continue, while Iran increases the size and capability of its military forces, causing concern among other countries in the region. Iran and Iraq once again are disputing border areas in the northern end of the Persian Gulf, and firing into each other's territory.
• Balkans-The crisis in the Balkans has continued, despite attempts to implement the 1995 Dayton Peace Accords. Bosnia continues to be a hot spot, requiring continuous monitoring by NATO forces, while old ethnic hostilities are erupting in Kosovo and other areas.
• Algeria-A chronic Islamic insurrection faces a repressive military regime, as fanatic groups commit brutal massacres in villages near the country's large cities, killing hundreds of innocent civilians.
• Central Africa-Hutu and Tutsi factions wage genocidal war, spilling across national borders and defying international relief efforts.
• West Africa-Destitute nations continue to be wracked by coups and civil wars that have been endemic since the end of colonial rule in the 1960's, requiring frequent evacuations of foreign civilians.
Current U.S. national military strategy calls for a force structure sufficient to deal with two "major regional contingencies" (small wars or big crises) plus one "complex humanitarian emergency" (natural disaster, epidemic, famine, refugee migration, etc.). You might think that a dozen CVBGs would be enough to handle all that. Unfortunately, the unforgiving demands of complex machinery and the natural limits of human endurance set boundaries that make a dozen carrier groups just barely sufficient to maintain two or three carriers on distant deployment at any one time. Let me explain.
When you build a warship like an aircraft carrier, it is not available for deployment overseas all the time. Warships require regular maintenance and upgrades. Thus, in the forty-five-year planned life of an aircraft carrier, it will spend as much as a fifth of its time in docks and yards being repaired and maintained. For example, for every year the ship is in service, two or three months are spent on minor upgrades and maintenance to keep the ship going between "deep" overhauls (when the warship is brought into dry dock for major work). These major overhauls are done every five years or so, take from eight to twelve months to complete, and include everything from repainting the hull to upgrading the living quarters and combat systems. Additionally, nuclear-powered carriers are periodically out of service for a three-year refueling, an intricate surgery (with meticulous attention to radiation safety) that requires cutting great holes through decks and bulkheads and then welding everything back together. All this means that a warship is only available to sail about three years out of every five.
The crew, also, requires its own "overhaul," for the multitude of combat skills embodied in the battle group's ten thousand sailors, marines, and aviators are "perishable." If skills are not taught, practiced, and tested regularly, the combat potential of a ship or air group rapidly deteriorates, even when deployed into a forward area. So a battle group must be assembled and "worked up" for almost six months before each six-month deployment.
Finally, and no less important, today's sailors and marines demand and deserve a personal life. People are not robots; they need rest, family relationships, and opportunities to advance personally and professionally. Warship crews need some portion of their service careers at or near their home ports. This human factor is the first casualty when politicians deny pay increases and hardship bonuses, or extend emergency deployments to extreme lengths. Because relatively few of today's national leaders have the personal experience of long military deployments, the sea services have especially suffered. To remedy this problem, Admiral Johnson has instituted a six-month "portal to portal" deployment policy. That is, the Navy has promised that sailors will spend 50 % of their time in home port.
Navy planners struggle constantly to build schedules that maximize the number of carrier groups available for deployment, while providing the best quality of life for embarked sailors and marines. Given a carrier force level of a dozen units, it works out something like this:
• Deep Overhaul/Nuclear Refueling-Two or three units at a time. Currently, there are three shipyards (Bremerton, Washington; Norfolk, Virginia; and Newport News Shipbuilding) capable of doing this intensive job, which essentially "zeros the mileage" on a ship.
• Yearly/Periodic Maintenance-Two or three additional carriers are usually conducting yearly/periodic maintenance, which is mainly done dockside at the ship's home port.
• Deployment/Workup Cycle-The remaining six or seven carriers are on an eighteen-month cycle, broken into the following phases:
— Leave/Unit Training Period-The first six months of the cycle are devoted to resting crews coming off deployment, with leave and training time. Some individual ship or unit training is also conducted then.
— Workup Period-The second six months of the cycle are designed to refresh unit combat skills, conduct combine training, and validate the unit's ability to conduct joint operations prior to deployment.
• Deployment-Designed to be six months long, this is the period where the combined battle group is packaged and forward-deployed for actual operations.