Dowling smiled, “Well, it’s a tie, and I get to cast the deciding vote. We’ll game option two. I want to take Taiwan within 12 months. Colonel Lake, set in motion a heightened training and mobilization posture. Keep the preparations as secret as possible. Mr. Ye and Dr. Wendell, see to it that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea gets all the fuel and food it requires. Colonel Lake, provide our ally with a ‘loan’ of 300 of our oldest tanks, in good working order, of course, and begin to upgrade their air defense network. Make no effort to disguise these preparations, but don’t telegraph them either. Ms. Klein, I want you to open up intense, government-to-government exchanges designed to engage the government on Taiwan at all levels. Make them feel that we truly want a political solution to reunification.”
As Dowling spoke, each role player wrote down his orders. As soon as he finished, facilitators showed up at the side of each role player to understand the intent of their more detailed instructions. These actions would then be communicated to the Green and Blue cells and their auxiliary Japan, South Korea and Taiwan cells so that they could formulate a response for the Red cell by the next day at noon. Tomorrow, Donna’s Red cell had to respond to two U.S. alternative actions, by generating two reactions. It was a lot of work to pack into a day.
Donna finished fleshing out her response to the facilitator and headed quickly for the hall. About half of the game participants had already left. Today had been interesting and productive, but she had other things on her mind now. She toyed with the idea of going in to the office, but the chance to catch up on laundry and sleep proved more compelling.
Just before she reached the hallway she noticed General Taylor in the corner talking with a young-looking Air Force lieutenant colonel. In spite of herself, she hesitated. General Taylor clapped the man on the shoulder and slipped by him to address Donna. “Ms. Klein, I wanted to say thank you for your contribution. Has it been interesting for you so far?”
Donna thought the man was too friendly—hasn’t he learned with all the sexual scandal in the Pentagon? “Thank you. Yes, I had an excellent time today. I hope all of our hard work will be put to good use.”
Taylor smiled gently, “We’re recording everything and we’ll distill it down to lessons learned within a week. The National Security Council staff will even get an executive summary of this one.”
Donna decided he reminded her of a younger, taller version of her father, Admiral Ben Klein, USN, retired. “Great. I hope the good guys win in the end.”
“Don’t we always?”
“We’ll see. I’m on the bad guy side this week.” Donna grinned slyly, turned on her heels, and walked out the door.
8
What to Do?
Fu Zemin, politico-military affairs advisor to the Chinese Communist Party, sat down at his PC and began to try to put to words his ambitious thoughts. After several false starts he lit up a cigarette. He sighed. He put the cigarette down and returned to the keyboard. His phone rang, making him flinch. Fu waited one more ring to calm himself before answering. Normally, his secretary screened his calls, direct calls only came from his wife or, rarely, higher ups who wanted something.
“Hello, Fu Zemin here.”
“Comrade Fu, this is the office of the Chairman’s Chief Central Military Commission Advisor. You are wanted for an informal meeting.” It was a male voice.
Fu felt a shudder of anticipation from the surprise call—the Central Military Commission, you can’t get much higher than that. “When?”
“Immediately, of course.” The voice sounded impatient, “The discussion is already underway. Come to the CMC Chief Advisor’s office.”
“I’m on my way.”
Fu rocked back in his leather bound chair, reached to the right top drawer, brought out his comb, and smoothed his hair — looking sloppy was a certain path to engendering a lack of confidence. Fortunately, the Chairman’s working offices were just across the street from the Party headquarters. Since it was cold and rainy outside (he had a rare window office) he decided to take the tunnel connecting the two structures together under the wide thoroughfare.
He made it to the Central Military Commission’s office in only seven minutes. Again a surprise, he was shown right in to Chief Advisor Soo’s office. In addition to Soo, a thin man of about 50 who’s sole vice was chain smoking, there were two PLA generals in the office, and a high-ranking man from the Foreign Ministry. Fu had socially met the other three men at various parties over the years. He remembered they all had wives, but he couldn’t remember their names. He bowed and waited to be addressed.
“Comrade Fu, you write interesting memos.” It was the man from the Foreign Ministry. He was in his 70s. He looked trim, fit, and alert, with a full head of closely cropped gray hair. The other men looked at him, waiting for a reaction. Soo sat behind his desk and a veil of cigarette smoke, the two generals seated to either side examining him as if he were a bug. Only the man from the Foreign Ministry had a look of kindness, almost grandfatherly, he was seated to Soo’s right, facing the generals. It was apparent the four had been having a conference before he arrived.
“Yes, Comrade Fong (he remembered the old man’s name!), I try to do what I can for China.” It was a safe answer, one couldn’t be too careful, even nowadays, when dealing with power.
Soo began to look impatient, “Let me cut to the chase. Zemin, we have been watching you for some time. You are smart and ambitious. You even show signs of wisdom — for a man of only 36. We want to include you as part of our discussion group. Everything said here is in the strictest confidence, understand?”
“Yes, comrade.”
“So, before you showed up for your first meeting late, Zemin,” Soo cast a sly look to Fu, “We were discussing the issue of America’s recent anti-missile tests. What is your opinion about the American missile defenses?” Four sets of eyes regarded the younger man.
Fu was beaming inwardly, outwardly, his face was impassive — he was advising men only one step removed from the Chairman himself! Fu began slowly, deliberately, “I believe this is a most unwelcome development for China…”
“We don’t need you to tell us that! Eh?” One of the generals cracked. The other general laughed.
Soo cut them off with a curt wave, “What I really want to know is, what should we do about it?”
Fu swallowed, “We have three years, five at the most, before America develops theater defenses capable of making our ballistic missile force obsolete in Asia. Within six years, America might think herself invulnerable from nuclear attack. Our only course of action is to begin a build-up of long-range ballistic missiles — of course, that’s what the Americans want us to do…”
“Eh?” It was the other general.
“The Americans want us to join them in an arms race. It weakened and eventually destroyed the Soviet Union and it could destroy us as well.”
“So, what do we do?” Fong asked.
“Cigarette?” Soo offered.
“Why yes, thank you comrade.” Fu gratefully accepted the proffered cigarette, a strong-tasting domestic. Fu began to reach for his lighter and Soo offered Fu his own — a heavy gold inlaid model. Fu felt the tension ease out of his muscles. The first puff brought him intensely into focus. “We must seize the initiative,” he said as one of the generals shifted forward in his chair, eyes intensely fixed on Fu. “No nation wins using only the defense. America today is a nation full of itself. America believes itself to be the world’s only superpower. That is its greatest weakness. So long as the Americans believe that there is no real threat to their national interest, they will crusade around the globe, putting their noses into other people’s business. I propose we use this to our advantage.”