“Madness! If the Americans get any more active in the world how long will it be before they demand we hold a referendum on independence for Tibet or some other such nonsense?” It was the general who had made the sarcastic comment moments before.
Fu finally remembered the man’s name while idly wondering if the lack of formal introductions was purposeful, “General Ching, the Americans have not yet intervened in a nation’s internal business when that nation was capable of defending itself, now have they? Did America do anything when the Russians invaded Chechnya and crushed the rebels? Of course not. Likewise, China has nothing to fear from the Americans.”
Fong spoke up, “Where first? Give us a concrete example of your idea so we may discuss its strengths and weaknesses.”
“Indonesia.”
“You mean East Timor?” Soo asked.
“No, Indonesia. All of it. It’s a powder keg ready to explode with religious and ethnic strife. Because of its oil and its size, I believe the Americans will be compelled to intervene and stabilize the situation…”
Soo narrowed his eyes and said slowly, “Do you really believe it would be to China’s advantage to have American troops stationed in another Asian country?” His question had a sharpness about it, even a hint of danger.
Fu was cautious. He decided the best course of action was to be firm, but careful. “Yes Comrade Soo, if the Americans come away from the deployment with a bad taste for Asian combat it would be good for us. Moreover, a larger American troop deployment will further reduce their strategic flexibility.”
“What do you propose?” General Ching asked.
“Comrade General Ching, I propose we use whatever clandestine methods we have at our disposal to increase American casualties and frustrate their designs. An American failure in Asia, coming on the heels of the protracted stalemates in the Balkans and against Iraq would enhance our prestige and hand the Americans a serious loss of face.” Fu swallowed, then continued, “Such a loss might make the Americans less likely to aid the province of Taiwan, should reunification be achieved with, ah, less than peaceful means in the near future.” The generals chuckled softly, “And, let us not forget, the Americans are growing increasingly weary of their international commitments. Remember, their Congress recently voted to end registration for conscription. No nation has ever maintained world power status without the ability to draft soldiers.”
Fong stroked his chin, then spoke, “What you propose is much easier said than done. Our infrastructure in Indonesia never recovered from the blow the fascist generals dealt it in the 1960s. If we aid the anti-independence militia in East Timor and get discovered, it could be unpleasant for us.”
“I agree. That is why I said Indonesia should be our target, not just East Timor. Indonesia has thousands of islands. Our cargo ships visit many of them. There is also a large ethnic Chinese presence throughout the archipelago. Our agents could move with relative impunity throughout the region. Of course, Indonesia could be just the beginning, if the Americans show enough appetite for intervention, we could always destabilize the Philippines…”
“More than we do already?” Ching said with a grin.
“Yes. Think of this plan as what the Americans called the ‘Reagan Doctrine’, only in reverse. President Reagan funded and equipped counterrevolutionaries to challenge Soviet hegemony. We could do the same to challenge and reverse Pax Americana.”
Fong furrowed his brow, “What if the Americans move to destabilize our government? We nearly lost control in 1989 and the Americans had nothing to do with it. The people have even less faith in the Party today than they did then, especially after the elections in Taiwan threw out the Nationalists. What makes you so sure we can drive the Americans from Asia with a few guerrilla wars? What is your end-state? So, we bloody America’s nose and they still end up deploying missile defenses; how are we better off?”
Fu was shocked at Fong’s candid admission of how close the Tiananmen Square uprising came to destroying the Communist Party’s grip on power. Fu gathered his courage, “We can solve all our problems with the successful reunification of China — in victory, everyone’s a patriot.”
Fu’s words hung like ripe fruit in the middle of the room. All the men could taste it, even while they knew it to be unreachable.
The general next to Ching spoke up, “Ha! Take Taiwan and everything will be fine! Easy for you to say! How many troops have you commanded in war?”
“None…”
“What do you expect us to do, swim across while we wait for the U.S. Navy to pay us a visit?”
“No general. I expect a proud nation of 1.3 billion people can, with ingenuity and industriousness, figure out how to seize a small, rebellious island. As for the U.S. fleet, I suspect there are ways to divert their attention until it is too late. If I may…”
“Please,” Soo said, extending another cigarette, “We find your ideas most interesting…”
9
Good Intent
On the morning of December 26, the Island of Timor came into view. It was a dark green against a backdrop of brilliant blue skies and billowing cumulus clouds hovering over the island’s mountainous spine. Even at sea it was beastly hot.
After almost a century of foreign interventions, most for the purpose of securing American lives and property, the 2nd Battalion, 4th Marines of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit prepared to go ashore on their latest mission. Colonel Flint gripped the railing on the deck of the USS Belleau Wood and looked at the tropical island that was his latest assignment.
The flare-up in East Timor combined with the decision to send in the Marines pulled Donna out of the Pentagon’s China war game. “Tier Zero crisis coverage.” Mr. Scott called it as he phoned Donna at home after the war game’s first day. While Donna was a China expert, she was also known as a creative and flexible analyst. The Indonesia section was understaffed for the crisis, so Donna was brought in to augment their efforts.
Donna had been working on the East Timor crisis for a month when she stopped to consider its “Tier Zero” status. Presidential Decision Directive-35 sought to better prioritize intelligence requirements. “Tier Zero” was for crisis coverage, “Tier One” for countries that were enemies or potential enemies, and “Tier Two” for other countries of high priority. “Tier Zero” situations were first in line for resources. The PRC was “Tier Two.” Donna had ceased struggling against this politically correct ranking — to even suggest China as a “Tier One” country was a sure route to being posted to Chad as Assistant to the Deputy CIA Station Chief.
Donna settled into her desk to review the morning traffic from China before getting caught up in her East Timor “day job.” She absentmindedly untied her walking shoes and slipped on her modest high-heeled work shoes. She scanned and stored a wide range of facts from 21 pages of information: China now had 110 million unemployed; China was violently cracking down on Islamic unrest in its western provinces; China had taken delivery of another 50 front-line Russian Su-30 fighters; China’s manned space program was slowing down due to a lack of resources; China’s leadership was growing increasingly worried about religious “cells” in its major cities.
Donna looked at her watch and shook her head—Time for the East Timor morning staff meeting. She locked her stack of traffic up in her desk and knew there was intelligence to be made from that small pile of paper—No time.