“The American imperialists… in Bangladesh?” Fu fumbled for a moment but finished strong. “No, Minister Han, the American fleet will not be in Bangladesh… It will be in the Persian Gulf, in the Adriatic and off the coast of Indonesia.”
Fu’s comeback elicited a scowl from the Defense Minister, but from others in the room came a murmur of interest. Premier Wang even nodded approvingly. Fu decided to let their curiosity build for a few minutes more before unveiling his strategy. “I’ll get to the Indonesian diversion in a minute, but first let me give you a little more background. As you know, the American imperialists occupied Taiwan at the beginning of the Korean War. Eisenhower ordered the U.S. Seventh Fleet to patrol the Taiwan Straits, violating our territorial waters, preventing — as the minister of defense has pointed out — our troops from reaching Taiwan. Later, the U.S. opened an air base, for its Eighth Air Force, near the Taiwan city of Taichung, making an invasion that much more risky.”
“Beginning the late 1970s the balance of forces in the Straits began to shift in our favor. Vice Premier Deng Xiaoping insisted that the last of the American occupying troops be withdrawn in 1978 as a condition of diplomatic recognition. The Seventh Fleet stopped patrolling the Taiwan Straits. The Mutual Security Treaty was abrogated…”
“Yes, but there is still the Taiwan Relations Act,” interjected the Defense Minister. “It calls for the U.S. to guarantee the security of Taiwan against invasion or blockade.”
“Not exactly, Minister Han,” Fu responded. “All the Taiwan Relations Act says is that”—here he quoted—“‘…the U.S. would consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means… a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the U.S.’ It does not commit the U.S. to defend Taiwan. That would be up to the U.S. President.”
Mention of the U.S. leader, a weak man whose administration had been rocked by repeated scandals, many of them related to his out-of-control appetites, brought a round of ribald jokes.
“A bevy of our black-haired beauties could distract him while we take Taiwan,” the Minister of Economics offered to general laughter.
“Beauties carrying bundles of unmarked bills would be a double distraction,” riposted Premier Wang, “I understand he’s already raising money for the next elections.”
“And for his legal bills,” the Minister of the Interior, Ren Baisha, added dryly. “So many women are suing him…”
“Maybe we could support him for UN Secretary General,” the Minister of Economics, Su Zhongqiang, quipped. “As a foreign diplomat in the U.S., he would possess immunity from arrest.”
The scornful joking continued for several more moments, with even Chairman Han joining in. Like most Party officials, Fu thought little of the American President, but he was still surprised by the depth of his own leaders’ disdain. So much the better, he realized, it will predispose them to accept my plan.
As soon as things had quieted down, he began to hammer the point home. “We all agree that this American president is weak and indecisive,” he said to a round of appreciative nods. “This is an argument for striking Taiwan hard now, before their next presidential elections remove him from office.”
“The American military is weak now, too, particularly in Asia, weaker and more over extended than it has been at any time since the end of the Vietnam War. The Americans have been forced out of Vietnam, the Philippines and, of course, Taiwan. They have reduced their forces in Korea and Japan. What’s left? A Marine division in Okinawa, 37,000 men in South Korea, and naval and air force elements in Japan.”
“Is there some risk of U.S. intervention?” Fu said dramatically. “Of course there is. But I’ll tell you in a minute how we can minimize this risk. Let us first remember what is at stake here.
“Right now, Taiwan is a dagger pointed at the heart of China. You’ve all read the reports. Our people are impressed by Taiwan’s economic development; by per capita their incomes are ten times higher than ours. They are seduced by its so-called ‘democratic’ political system, the myth that the people themselves select their leaders. We in the Party know that moneybags democracy is a failure and a fraud. Only the Chinese Communist Party, the vanguard of the proletariat, can truly represent the interests of the Chinese people. Yet the people — some people — are taken in. By taking Taiwan we turn this dagger away from us and thrust it toward the United States.
“And think of the prize of Taiwan, with its first-world economy, its highly educated work force, and its cutting-edge technology. Gaining Hong Kong increased our GNP by about eight percent. Gaining Taiwan would increase our GNP by another ten percent overnight. Bringing Taiwan back into China will increase our military might, giving us ports from which our ships can steam farther, and airfields from which our planes can fly greater distances.
“But the prize here is larger than just Taiwan,” Fu continued. “Taiwan is the key to control of the entire first island chain, from Japan and Korea in the north, down to the Philippines and Indonesia in the south. Once Taiwan has been absorbed, Japan and Korea will fall into our orbit. The Philippines and Southeast Asia will follow. Within a short time the countries of the first island chain will be in the hands of governments friendly to China, and hostile to the United States. China, not the United States, will be the regional hegemon.”
The Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party spoke for the first time. “This is all very fine,” Chairman Han said quietly. “But will the U.S. stand idly by while we overrun their colony?”
“They will not be idle, Mr. Chairman,” Fu said with a daring touch of smugness. “That’s the beauty of my plan. The U.S. Army will be tied down in Korea by troop mobilizations north of the border. Our friend Kim Jong-il will see to that. The U.S. Navy will be responding to a crisis in the Middle East. Our friends in Iraq and Syria will see to that. And the U.S. Marines,” he paused here for effect, “will be fighting for their lives in East Timor and Indonesia. Before the U.S. can bring in forces from Hawaii or the American West Coast, Taiwan will be ours.”
As Fu expected, Defense Minister Han Fubai immediately spoke out against his plan.
“We all agree with the need to recapture Taiwan, by force if necessary,” the Defense Minister grumbled. “But I say that we are not strong enough yet. Let us bide our time for a few more years. Our star is rising. That of the U.S. is falling. In ten years we will have the world’s largest economy, and the most powerful military. We have only to wait and Taiwan will have no choice but to kowtow.
“In ten more years we will have not just a handful but thousands of the new nuclear weapons that General Li has told us about. We will have not just 20 nuclear weapons pointed at the U.S. but hundreds or maybe even thousands. These new compact weapons will be on hard-to-target mobile launchers, which we are only now developing, or clustered on our new ICBMs.”
“China’s economic health is very vulnerable,” Vice Premier Su nodded in support of the Defense Minister. Vice Premier Su Zhongqiang had overall responsibility for economics and trade. “We are heavily reliant upon imported oil, gas, minerals, metals, chemicals and food. Cross-straits trade and investment means that Taiwan’s manufacturing capability is already at our disposal, regardless of whose flag flies over the presidential palace.”
“But we do need command of the sea lanes,” the Admiral in charge of the PLA naval forces, Admiral Hai Zhanting, interjected. “Control over Taiwan and the South China Sea would put us in a much stronger position to guarantee the imports we need. We are very vulnerable to blockade. Does anyone here think that America will let us rise up to challenge their power? Were we in their position, would we let another nation grow more powerful than China? We must control our own destiny.”