Dowling, now a little on guard, said, “Oh?”
“Yes sir. I mean, I’ve only been at the CIA four years and you have me playing the premier of China in a simulation? I hope it’s not the only game in town — so to speak.”
“I see. Well, as I’m sure you can appreciate, these simulations take quite a bit of time and money to prepare and run, not to mention the personnel diverted from their day-to-day tasks,” Dowling was just the slightest bit stiff. Donna was momentarily regretful of her comment — just momentarily though — when she ran the show, things would be different. “In any event, you should take it as a career enhancing opportunity that you were chosen for this exercise. Now, if you’ll excuse me.” Dowling turned to go down the hall before his break time expired.
Donna looked for Colonel Lake. She found him talking with a captain from the Navy and another colonel. “… so this time I want to kick some serious ass, let’s get imaginative, bend the rules till they break. I want to grab those bastards in the blue and green cells by the balls and…” the naval officer cleared his throat and looked over Colonel Lake’s shoulder at Donna with a slight grin and a hint of embarrassment. Colonel Lake tried to recover, “… and show them how the game is played.”
Donna smiled and addressed the Colonel, “You really shouldn’t mix your metaphors in front of the Premier. It could get you demoted to the position of outpost commander in the Gobi Desert.”
“Oh, hello. Ms. Klein, is it?” Colonel Lake thought his oldest daughter wasn’t much younger than this CIA analyst. Still, she’s got something to contribute or she wouldn’t be here, he thought. He decided to try to make an ally of her. “I was just discussing with my comrades here how we are going to bring the capitalist pigs to their knees.” Lake emphasized his southern accent on the word “comrade” so that it stood out like a relic from the Cold War. Clearly, this was an officer who took no prisoners.
“So, you’ve done this before?” Donna asked, feeling somewhat more secure in knowing there were some veteran simulation players around. At least the Pentagon appeared to be trying to stay one step ahead of the latest crisis — which was more than could be said for the CIA lately.
“Yes, twice now, but only with Pentagon personnel. Got my… fanny kicked twice by the U.S. Navy both times just as my invasion of Taiwan got underway. This will be my first interagency war game. It should be interesting to get another perspective in here instead of just us professional warriors fighting it out.”
Donna was beginning to like this officer. He enjoyed his work too. She winked, “You’ll have to tell me about your failed efforts at bringing that renegade capitalist province back into line.”
Colonel Lake grinned, “Why, Ms. Klein, I’d be happy to tell you about my glorious failures upon the field of battle.”
Cliff Dowling strode back into the simulation room and buttonholed Mr. Ye. The others began searching for their seats.
Dowling set his face and sized up his audience, “Well, let’s get going,” he paused, eyes resting on Dr. Wendell for a moment, “I know some of you don’t believe the People’s Republic of China would ever try to conquer the Republic of China on Taiwan. If that’s your opinion, that’s fine. Keep it to yourself during this simulation. Our goal is to try our level best to achieve our aim, knowing what we know about the capabilities and weaknesses of the PRC. Ms. Klein, I want you to explore the possibilities of a federal reunification with Taiwan where they would maintain their local government and armed forces, but speak with one voice with the PRC on foreign affairs. Dr. Wendell, I want you to recommend ways to prevent U.S. or Japanese interference should we decide to use the military option. I also want you to explore how we might more reliably integrate North Korea’s capabilities into our plans. Mr. Ye, I want you to examine how our economy might be impacted by an economic embargo led by America. Also develop some timelines — tell me how long could we hold out, what would be our alternate sources of supply, etc. I also need a read on the unemployment picture, should our goods be boycotted by the West. Colonel Lake, I want you to draw up three options: first, using the PLA to intimidate Taiwan into agreeing to a federal union and not declaring their full independence; second, launching an all-out invasion to conquer Taiwan; and third, launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan as a prelude to a sustained campaign to conquer Asia.” Dowling’s voice grew more authoritative with every sentence until, by the time he was giving instructions to his military chief, one could imagine him as the leader of a nation of 1.3 billion people.
“I want your recommendations briefed to me per the following schedule: Ms. Klein, from 3:30 to 3:35. Dr. Wendell, from 3:35 to 3:45. Mr. Ye, from 3:45 to 3:55. Colonel Lake, from 3:55 to 4:10, give me five minutes on each option. I expect that each briefing will stick to schedule. At the end of the briefings I will take a vote from my four key players on which option to take, then I will make my decision and set the proper preparations in motion for our blue and green team colleagues to react to tomorrow. If you have any questions, please see me.”
Donna looked across the table to Colonel Lake. It was obvious that the Colonel wasn’t much interested in option one. He wanted to flex his muscles.
Dr. Wendell spoke softly, leaning to his left so that his shoulder brushed up against Donna’s “It looks like you’ve got the only realistic assignment. I can’t believe the Chinese would throw away all the economic progress they’ve made in the last 20 years just to conquer a tiny island with no resources.”
Donna didn’t like the man from State’s attitude. She replied tersely, “No one believed that Argentina would invade the Falkland Islands in 1982 either. Sometimes nations do things for reasons beyond their checkbook.” Dr. Wendell snorted softly.
Donna went to work. She found a lieutenant colonel who was playing the role of a PRC Taiwan expert. He was recently back from a tour in Taipei as a defense attaché to what was in fact, if not in name, the American embassy in Taiwan. (It was called the American Institute in Taiwan to avoid offending Beijing.) Donna took the opportunity to gain some first-hand knowledge of the Taiwanese political scene from someone other than a CIA employee. What she found made her realize that her assigned task was virtually hopeless. The Taiwanese simply enjoyed their freedom too much to risk any sort of a political union with the Mainland that could take their freedom away. Further, the indigenous Taiwanese were becoming increasingly powerful; representing about 84 % of the population, they had more pro-independence leanings than the Mainland Chinese and their descendants who came over with General Chiang Kai-shek in 1949. (Ironically, the Communists funded pro-independence movements in Taiwan through the 1960s and 70s when the Nationalist government in Taiwan still held designs of one day leading all of China.)
With the lieutenant colonel’s assistance, Donna crafted a five minute briefing that concluded any political reunification with Taiwan could only come if the Communist Party loosened its grip on power, allowed dissent, and, completely unthinkable, allowed a multi-party republic with a strong, independent rule of law. In other words, reunification would only be possible through the death of the Communist Party as it now existed. Donna could only wonder at the fate of a Chinese Premier who made that recommendation to the President and Communist Party Chairman.
She read the briefing twice in her head, timing it to four minutes and forty-five seconds. Perfect. She looked up and noticed there was no clock on the wall. She glanced at her wristwatch, her one anomaly in her otherwise conservative dress, it was a old stainless steel and plastic Swatch watch with glow-in-the-dark hands and numbers, a collectable she paid over $150 for. Noon. Lunch time. Just as she thought it, two carts were wheeled in, one with chilled sodas and a few milks in a large iced bowl and one with sandwiches and fruit. Not the Ritz, but timely and, by the looks of it, wholesome. She grabbed a tuna fish sandwich and a Pepsi (she had a caffeine deficit to make-up, that was the room’s one shortcoming — no coffeepot — she’d have to have a talk with the simulation coordinator).