“Mr. Barton,” Anderson said. “Thank you for coming.”
“Thank you, Mr. President,” Andrew said.
He took a moment to study them both as an aide brought two cups of coffee and one of tea, placing them on the table. They made an odd pair. President Anderson looked more like a schoolteacher than a President, while Prime Minister Thatcher reminded him of one of the fearsome old biddies who’d dominated his hometown. The Reich’s propaganda machine had turned her into a monster, even to the point of insisting she was really a man in drag. They’d had some problems coming to terms with female politicians, Andrew recalled; they’d never really seen women as anything more than mothers, daughters and wives.
And now a young girl started a movement that sundered the Reich, Andrew thought, will they change their attitudes?
“This is not a formal debriefing,” Anderson said, once the aide had retreated. “We would merely like your impression of the current situation.”
Andrew took a breath. “At last report” – he wasn’t going to go into specifics, not when the recording wouldn’t be kept in the US – “the provisional government has a reasonably firm grip on Germany Prime, but very limited control outside it. Germany North and Germany South seem to be waiting to see who comes out on top, while Germany Arabia has effectively declared for Germany East. That gives the rump government in Germany East the ability to pressure the Turks into allowing shipments of troops and supplies through their territory. I don’t expect the Turks to refuse.”
“I imagine the prospect of being devastated from one end of the country to the other will concentrate a few minds,” Thatcher said, dryly.
Andrew nodded. The Reich’s allies knew, beyond any possibility of doubt, that resistance to the Reich would be utterly futile. Vichy France, Spain, Portugal, Turkey, Italy, Finland… the slightest hint of resistance, of disagreement, would be enough to start the Panzers rolling in their direction. They were utterly prostrate before the Reich. And yet, with the Reich itself torn in two, who knew which way the former allies would jump?
But they’d have to be sure of themselves first, he thought. Whoever comes out on top will certainly seek revenge, if they feel that they were betrayed.
“It is hard to be sure just where the military balance actually stands,” Andrew continued, after a moment. “The rump has a more deployable military force at its disposal, but the provisional government should be able to generate a larger force, given time. I believe they will certainly try to recall troops from South Africa, yet there’s no way to know which way those forces will jump. It might be better to keep them in the south until after the civil war is settled, one way or the other.”
President Anderson leaned forward. “What do you think is going to happen?”
“The rump will attack,” Andrew said. “I’m sure you’ve seen the orbital imagery of forces being moved westwards and positioned in place for a full-scale advance. Launching an offensive and pushing it forward with maximum force has been part of German military doctrine for well over a century. There’s no way they will allow a bunch of rebels – and that is how they will see the provisional government – to take and hold Berlin.”
He paused. “In the long-term, it’s quite likely the remainder of the Reich’s economy will collapse,” he added. “But I don’t know if that will happen in time to prevent the civil war from devastating the country. The Reich stockpiled vast qualities of military supplies over the past forty years.”
“Which leads to the obvious question,” Anderson said. “What about the nukes?”
Andrew took a long breath. “Officially, the Reich’s stockpile of nuclear weapons can only be launched with command codes held within the Berlin Bunker,” he said. His source within the provisional government had told him as much, although he wasn’t high enough to be absolutely sure that was true. “The missile silos in Siberia should be unable to launch without those codes, while the bombs assigned to the Luftwaffe cannot be detonated. In theory, the rump should be unable to deploy nuclear weapons.
“In practice, Mr. President, I believe they may well be able to detonate tactical nukes.”
The President scowled. “How?”
“I’m not a nuclear weapons expert, but I discussed the matter thoroughly with an officer at the embassy,” Andrew said, carefully. “The problem with any sort of security system is it needs to strike a balance between two competing imperatives; the need to keep the weapon from detonating at the wrong time and the need to ensure that the weapon actually detonates at the right time. It’s quite possible that a designer could accidentally ensure that the weapons cannot be detonated through making the security system too good.”
“Too good,” the President repeated.
“Yes, Mr. President,” Andrew said. “If the wrong code is inputted, the security system will fry the detonator and render the weapon useless.”
He paused. “We do not know the specifics of the Reich’s version of our Permissive Action Links,” he added. “However, my expert believes that someone with a good knowledge of tactical nuclear weapons might well be able to remove the PAL and replace it with a makeshift detonator. Indeed, given that a lucky strike on Berlin might destroy the command codes, it’s quite possible that the Reich was very careful not to make their PALs too good. In the absence of a working model to examine, there’s no way to know for sure.”
“So the rump may have access to tactical nukes,” Thatcher commented.
“Yes, Prime Minister,” Andrew said. “They may also be able to fire the ICBMs from Siberia, given time.”
“It sounds careless of them,” Thatcher observed.
“They need to strike a balance, Prime Minister,” Andrew said. “I don’t think they envisaged civil war when they were planning how best to secure their nuclear arsenal.”
“Probably not,” Anderson said. “Do you think the rump will deploy nukes?”
Andrew hesitated. “I think they would be reluctant to take the risk,” he said. “The provisional government could certainly retaliate in kind. However…”
He took a breath. “Germany East has always been the most fanatical part of the Reich,” he added, after a moment. “The SS isn’t just tolerated there, it’s actually popular. Neither their leadership nor their population are likely to view the provisional government as anything more than a bunch of filthy traitors. Indeed, they may even have a point. By overthrowing the former government, the rebels have actually weakened the Reich. I don’t expect them to be reluctant to deploy nukes if they think they need them.”
“Wonderful,” Anderson said, sourly.
Thatcher nodded in agreement. “Are they likely to try to pick a fight with us?”
“I don’t know, Prime Minister,” Andrew said. “They would have to be insane to try, in hopes of convincing the Reich to reunite, but I don’t believe Karl Holliston is quite sane.”
He didn’t blame Thatcher for worrying. America was protected, first by vast oceans and then by the FIELD GREEN ABM network, but Britain was bare moments from German-occupied France. There would be barely any warning before the first missile reached its target. A nuclear war would turn Britain into a radioactive slagheap and both sides knew it; hell, with thousands of German jet fighters sitting on airfields in France and Germany, even a conventional war would give the British a very hard time.