“It is the opinion of the Department of State that, despite Secretary McNorman’s assertions, we lack the capability to intervene in this situation. What we’re seeing from Egypt, Mister President, is a done deal. It’s the culmination of a long process. Most devastating of all from our point of view, the existing Egyptian Government had lost its assumption of authority. Sir, when you go out, your driver stays on the right hand side of the road and stops when the lights are red. He never thinks about it. That’s a government’s assumption of authority. People obey because it is the Government. The Egyptian Government has lost that. So if we send troops to restore the situation, we’re supporting a lame duck, a lost cause.
“At the same time Mister President, we can’t just leave this. We’ve made that mistake once already and its haunting us to this day. Back in 1951, a guy called Mohammed Mossadegh seized power from the then-ruler, some glorified warlord who called himself The Shah, and got himself elected as Prime Minister. By 1953, he virtually controlled the country, he was quite popular by the way, and was taking the country off down his own path. Now, back then there was a CIA plan to remove him from power but President Patton had a virulent dislike of covert operations of that type and he vetoed the whole thing. Mossadegh stayed in power, the Shah left for exile and that was that.
“The problem was anticipatable to anybody who’s studied history. Mossadegh had started a revolution but he wasn’t radical enough for the radicals, wasn’t religious enough for the religious, wasn’t corrupt enough for the corrupt and wasn’t conservative enough for the conservatives. He ended up just like the Shah before him, representative of a small clique who told him what he wanted to hear. The problem was that he didn’t actually represent any major strand in Iranian opinion. He was an average, you know, he appealed to just enough people to just the extent necessary to gain superficial popularity.
“In Iran back then, there were two threads of belief that people subscribed to. One was the glory of Persian history and tradition, that was represented by the Shah, and the other was religion, represented by Khomeini and his cohorts. When Mossadegh deposed the Shah and forced him into exile, he sacrificed the respect and reverence that conservative parts of society had accorded to the Shah. That eliminated any chance of him getting any real support from anybody in that faction no matter what he did. Mossadegh lacked support from the traditionalists, thus the religious elements could gain power almost unopposed. That was how the Caliphate came into the world.
“I think the Mossadegh lesson is quite clear Mister President. This situation cannot be allowed to stand but, also, we have to be extremely careful what we commit ourselves to. Mister President, in a sense we rule the world, we can destroy any enemy we wish and those enemies can do nothing to save themselves. Our power, lies on that perception and we cannot do anything to endanger it. In a very real sense, our power relies on an aura of invincibility which is credible because it has never been discredited. And, it’s never been discredited because we’ve been careful never to get into a position where it can be discredited. When we do something, we do it via proxies. Usually, the Russians or the Triple Alliance. At the moment, we’re not involved in the problems of Egypt and there is no immediately obvious reason why we should get involved. Sending our own troops into Egypt would be a disaster, I thank God we haven’t got the forces needed to do that so the option isn’t open to us.
“Also, Sir, Egypt isn’t the problem. It’s a symptom of a much larger problem, the Caliphate is growing fast but its growing because its picking off the low-hanging fruit. If we look at what they’ve actually achieved, they’ve simply consolidated what was more or less in their power anyway. Every time they’ve tried to move outside that area, they’ve been hammered. Turkey, the Southern Russian provinces, attempts to extend Caliphate influence there were total failures.
“By the way Mister President, it’s interesting to note the Caliphate calls its current expansion “The Third Great Jihad”. Jihad means Holy War. The First Great Jihad was the original Arab expansion after Islam was founded, the Second was the Turkish outthrust. This is the Third. The question arises, what is going to happen when there is no more low-hanging fruit?”
“Dean. You’ve told me what we can’t do. Now tell me what we can.”
“Mister President. We have to learn. We have to watch the Caliphate and understand how it works. The Russians described the Caliphate as an organization that hangs together because its individual members hate the rest of the world a little more than they hate each other. A very good description that implies there are more internal divisions in the Caliphate than are apparent at this time. The obvious one is the religious divide between the Sunni and Shi’ite sects but there are others as well. Those divisions are something we can play upon in the future.
“So, the Caliphate has weaknesses that we can exploit, it has limitations we can pursue. Soon, it’ll be hitting the natural boundaries of its growth and we have to make sure that it is contained when it reaches those boundaries. Some, we don’t have to worry about, others we do. We helped the Triple Alliance a little when it suited us, now we must help countries that are in the front line against the Caliphate. That means mostly southern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa. For example, with Somalia dropping into the Caliphate’s orbit, that means Kenya is in the front line.
“The North African littoral is a write-off. The Italian and French hold there is tenuous at best and a good sneeze will boot them out. The French won’t listen, but the Italians will. Tell Mussolini to cut their losses and arrange to get out with as much dignity and as little fuss as possible. We’ll make good any losses they suffer. Since Libya and the rest will fall into Caliphate hands anyway, its better it happens quietly and causes as little damage as possible.
“That’s another good reason why we shouldn’t have troops in Egypt by the way. There’ll come a time to do something about Egypt but it isn’t yet. We should be concentrating on getting ahead of the curve and anticipating what the Caliphate will do. If we charge into Egypt now, we’ll be getting behind the curve, seen as reacting to others, not dictating to them. That’ll be more damaging to our worldwide position than anything else I can imagine.
“One other thing, Mister President. The Caliphate has an eastern edge as well as a western one. Its expanding, or attempting to expand, into territory held by the Triple Alliance as well as the Middle East. That’s another situation we’re going to have to watch, but there, we have a much better hand to play. The odds are the Triple Alliance can hurt the Caliphate a lot worse out there than we can at this time.
“We’re facing a worldwide war Mister President, the first since The Big One ended World War Two. The one thing we must avoid is becoming so focused on one particular part of that war that we neglect the others. May I counsel you Sir, as emphatically as I can, to meet with the Triple Alliance as soon as possible. Especially the Ambassador-Plenipotentiary from Thailand, I am advised that her understanding of insurgency problems and irregular warfare is unmatched.”
LBJ nodded thoughtfully. “The Attorney General has described the Ambassador as an international assassin who should be brought to trial before an international court. He’s even swallowed the old Chipanese conspiracy theory that she assassinated Gandhi. The problem with Ramsey is that he has a little mind, the only way he can cope with people who’s achievements exceed his own is to denigrate them at every opportunity. I want to meet with the Ambassador but not here in Washington. A Presidential visit to the Triple Alliance perhaps? A summit conference on world affairs would do nicely. Dean, find an auspicious event in Thai history for late this year or early next, preferably the hundredth anniversary of something or other, and set up a Summit Conference, held in Bangkok to honor that event.”