Among the PHA's that Kellermann was studying on this night was one bearing the designation Nereus 1991 HWC. It would be making a close pass to Earth shortly, coming to within.0032 AU's, or astronomical units. An AU is equal to the distance of the earth to the sun: 150 million kilometers, or 93 million miles. Since the distance between Earth and its moon is.0027 AU's, that means that Nereus 1991 HWC would, for a period of time, be right there in the neighborhood, so to say. During close encounters such as this, an asteroid is monitored with greater frequency. In the case of Nereus 1991 HWC, its angle of attack and the rotation of Earth itself put the Observatoire de la d'Azur in the best position to track it.
Measuring less than one hundred meters in diameter, Nereus 1991 HWC was definitely not a planet killer. But it was still a threat, one that Frederick Kellermann was charged that night with inspecting. From file data, the German astronomer knew that Nereus 1991 HWC was a small S-type asteroid that tumbled about the inner solar system, which meant that it was close enough to the sun to be stripped of most of its gases and liquids. Asteroids, sometimes referred to as comets, that spend most of their time in the far reaches of the solar system retain many of the gases and liquids that are part of their formation. It is only when they come close, relatively speaking, to the sun that these gases and liquids are heated and shed, creating the long tail that characterizes them. Lacking this cosmic signature, and due to its small size and dark profile, Nereus 1991 HWC was a bit more difficult, but not impossible, to track.
In combat, routine can kill. Soldiers who follow a pattern, who execute their duties in a predictable manner, often set themselves up for disaster. An enemy who is aware of his foe's habits can exploit those routines in many ways. The most obvious is to lay an ambush. But that is only one way of exploiting a pattern. An opponent can hide what he chooses from an enemy when the "scheduled" enemy patrol is due to arrive. This technique is used on a strategic level by nations that are concerned about satellite surveillance by a foreign power. Since the orbit of a spy satellite can be predicted, a foe can cease certain activity while it is overhead. This can be used at any level. An opposite approach can be equally effective. Called a ruse, one side deploys false emplacements, dummies, or stages mock maneuvers so that his foe's intelligence community will generate a false picture of their opponent's capability, activities, or intentions. This is what the Allies did in World War II before D day, when George S. Patton was placed in command of an army group consisting of plywood tanks and empty troop camps.
In the world of science, however, routine is cherished. This is especially true for astronomers, who often find themselves dealing with phenomena that are as predictable as the stars. The scientist must be most meticulous and precise when tracking and dealing with objects that appear, even when enhanced, as little more than pinpricks in the night sky. Entities as small as Nereus 1991 HWC can be tracked only with the use of computer programs that generate an image a human would not otherwise be able to view. Yet even the most sophisticated computers have their limits, especially when it comes to detecting things that are smaller than a fraction of a pixel.
On this night, Frederick Kellermann had a number of PHA's to look at. He took them in the order of the priority that his superior at the Institute of Planetary Exploration had established for him. Kellermann reviewed the latest images captured by the CCD at the Observatoire de la d'Azur. Next, he ran this information through a program that matched the new data with that which had been previously generated to see if there were any changes or variations in the projected trajectory of each PHA. Since asteroids are small, the gravitational pull of larger planets and moons, including Earth's can affect them. The same invisible force that holds the moon captive can, and on occasion does, draw other celestial objects toward Earth. This is where the great danger comes from in regard to PHA's. Like a steel ball-bearing rolling about in a maze of magnets, the path of an asteroid can be bent this way or that whenever it comes close to a planet. Since Nereus 1991 HWC's travels also took it close to Mars, there was concern that the pull of Martian gravity would alter the asteroid's trajectory. A quick comparison of the computer generated plot with the historical data satisfied Kellermann that this had not happened, not this time.
Next, the German ran the program that factored in the moon's potential impact on the incoming visitor. Since the moon would be hidden behind Earth when Nereus 1991 HWC swept in and made its pass, the moon would be unable to influence the asteroid. The final check was to do the same for Earth itself, for the very planet that the NEO teams were trying to protect had the potential to draw in a fatal asteroid with a blind determination not unlike that which a disgraced samurai warrior relies upon when he plunges his own sword through himself.
When all these checks had been made, using the same techniques and routines used to analyze each PHA, Frederick Kellermann leaned back in his seat, lifted his hands above his head, and stretched. As he did so, he stared at the image of Nereus 1991 HWC for a moment. Like all the other PHA's he had studied and would see before this night was out, Nereus 1991 HWC was behaving as it should. It afforded him no surprises and generated no concern. It was adhering to the routine that Kellermann had come to expect, in a manner not at all unlike the one Kellermann himself was following.
Glancing at his watch as he lowered his hands back to the computer's keyboard, the German astronomer saw that time was slipping away. He still had a dozen more targeted PHA's that he needed to look at before his shift was over. Without another thought, he reached out and automatically closed the file on his screen, never once suspecting that another object, a tiny, dark C-type asteroid was fast closing on Nereus 1991 HWC. Too small to be detected by the CCD at the Observatoire de la d'Azur, this unnamed chunk of space rock was on a collision course with Nereus 1991 HWC. Out of sight of the seven billion inhabitants of Earth, this rock, measuring less than five meters in diameter, slammed into the larger asteroid and set in motion a chain reaction that would create a crisis unlike anything seen on Earth since the KT Event.
Chapter 4
Having finished rereading the chapter that covered the Battle of Canne. General Chuck H. Smith closed the book on Hannibal, set it down in his lap. and looked around the room. As he did every evening before heading off to bed. he read from one of the hundreds of history books that lined the shelves of his small study. This was the only time of day that he was free to enjoy the quiet, to indulge his own thoughts, and to ponder personal issues that needed sorting out. As Chief of Staff of the Army and an integral part of the National Command Authority, opportunities such as this were quite rare.
On this night, the personal issues that Smith found himself mulling over were disquieting. As March gave way to April, the fact that he would be retiring within three months could no longer be ignored. After thirty-five years of service to his nation as a soldier, he would be forced to stack arms and walk away from the only profession he knew. On the last day in June, after an appropriately dignified ceremony, he would be tossed from the secure embrace of the United Slates Army and out into a world about which he knew very little.