‘Don’t do it,’ said Wada with uncharacteristic bluntness. ‘For many years we have suggested that we strengthen ties, but your governments haven’t listened. Now that this has happened, we have no choice but to insist you do not retaliate. If you do, we will withdraw all aid, Japanese investment will naturally follow and your economy will collapse within months.’
‘Unfortunately, millions of Indians don’t see it like that. Territory and honour are more important than life and a full rice bowl. Besides, it is out of my control.’ The Ambassador was exhausted and didn’t mind showing it. ‘But I will say one thing. China has decided to use this conflict to become the undisputed regional power. If it succeeds, India’s influence will have to diminish, and that will not be in Japan’s strategic interest. We believe it is an apt time to examine the strategic ramifications.’
Wada nodded: ‘We don’t have the academic luxury of diplomatic evaluations. So I will tell you this in confidence, Ambassador, and use it how you wish. Our intelligence tells us that China is determined to win. They have just activated a military plan called Operation Dragon Fire.’
Briefing
Russia retains an impressive order of battle on paper, but its military power is far less than that once wielded by the Soviet Union. Cohesion, morale and operational effectiveness are all reduced. Throughout the Cold War the Soviet Union retained a strong relationship with India. In the 1990s Russia also began what was called a Strategic Relationship for the Twenty-first Century with China. Russia now supplies substantial amounts of weaponry to both countries. It continues to struggle with its own political and economic reforms. If events go badly in Russia, autocracy could be strengthened, reviving a new era of tension and confrontation with the West and other powers. In the first months of the twenty-first century, Russia made a series of announcements centred on increased military spending and modernizing its nuclear arsenal.
The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia
Russian President Vladimir Gorbunov did not need to be woken up. He was an insomniac who often made crucial decisions for his country in the early hours of the morning. In the past few months he had been working on strengthening the alliance between Russia, China and India. His aim was to create a military and political force which would curb the power of the United States and NATO.
A former commander of the Pacific Fleet, Gorbunov was acutely attuned to the undercurrents of the Asia — Pacific. Far more than his counterparts from Moscow and St Petersburg, Gorbunov looked east for his models of development. He admired China, in particular, for the determined way it was pulling itself into the modern age, viewing it more as a role model than a threat.
India was a long-standing ally, as at ease with its democratic institutions as China was with its authoritarianism. Only two months earlier, Gorbunov had been in Delhi to extend the military technology pact with India, which was giving it the weaponry needed to counter the superior forces of China. In 1999, India and Russia signed a Military Technology Co-operation Treaty lasting until 2010.
Gorbunov believed if power between India and China could be balanced, he could lead a population bloc of 2.5 billion people, with a formidable array of nuclear and conventional weapons to limit the United States’ influence in international affairs. Many thought of this strategic triangle as a seductive aspiration, but too far-fetched. Gorbunov believed that a military alliance between China, India and Russia was far less ambitious than the chaotic union pushed through within Europe. If he did not try, the second-power countries of the world would forever remain weak against the Western democracies.
It was Gorbunov’s initiative, long before he was President, to give away the 30,000 tonne aircraft carrier Gorshkov to India in exchange for the purchase of the equipment and aircraft for it, including the SU-27M. Gorbunov had personally authorized the transfer of technology for India’s Rajendra phased-array radar system and Akash long-range surface-to-air missile system, making up a limited integrated theatre-defence system against the threat of Pakistani M-11 ballistic missiles.
Although the Rajendra was mostly Indian-built, the Akash was made up of the formidable Russian mobile S-300V Anti-Tactical Ballistic Missile system, code-named the SA12 Giant by NATO and considered superior to the American Patriot system. It was effective against planes, including those equipped with Stealth technology, and various types of missiles, including tactical and cruise.
Each system could protect an area of more than 320 square kilometres, including major cities, from missile attacks.
Before becoming President, Gorbunov had hosted Indian delegations at the Kapustin Yar test grounds, 1,300 kilometres south-east of Moscow. He persuaded them to abandon their national pride and take technology for the Rajendra as well. It could detect ballistic missiles more than 1,200 kilometres away, track sixty-four missiles and aircraft simultaneously and give warnings of at least five minutes to activate the anti-ballistic missile defences. The Rajendra was just what India was looking for.
Gorbunov also strengthened the role of the Indo-Russian Joint Working Group (JWG), which was looking at rearming India’s aircraft carriers, upgrading both the T-72 and advanced missile-firing T-90 tanks, providing India with Msta-B guns and KA-30 attack helicopters and purchasing the new MiG-AT advanced jet-trainer aircraft.
But the Russian President’s main achievement had begun more than ten years earlier when he was co-chair of the JWG and later a deputy Defence Minister.
‘No navy can be considered a force to reckon with unless it has nuclear submarines to control oceans,’ he repeatedly told the Indians, while at the same time pushing for Russia to release more technology for India’s beleaguered attempts to build a nuclear-powered and nuclear-armed submarine.
He arranged for the Russian submarine-design bureau, Rubin, to cooperate with Indian scientists on the hull and the reactor. The result was a 6,000 tonne displacement hull of titanium steel to give extra diving depth.
Gorbunov’s final initiative was the technology for the submarine-launched Sagarika cruise missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and derived from the Prithvi, with a range of 320 kilometres. The Sagarika had put India’s navy in a different league. The nuclear-powered submarine had unlimited endurance and mobility. There was no place for a surface ship to hide from torpedoes, and the Sagarika could be fired from outside territorial waters with the capacity to destroy a city.
The obvious targets from the South China Sea would be the Chinese cities of Guangzhou, the southern commercial capital, the southern naval headquarters at Zhanjiang and the coastal bases at Shantou, Xiamen or Fuzhou.
As far as Gorbunov knew, the submarine was still called simply the Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) and it had not yet gone out for public trials for fear that other navies would pick up and copy its signature for future recognition.
Gorbunov was still authorizing limited help to the Surya intercontinental ballistic missile programme, aimed at creating a vehicle with a range of 12,800 kilometres, capable of reaching the United States. The programme was veiled in secrecy. Not even Gorbunov knew how far advanced it was. But if it ever worked, a missile launched from Delhi would be able to target an area bounded by Raleigh in North Carolina, Omaha in Nebraska and Eugene in Oregon. If it was launched 500 kilometres north of New Delhi, the range could go much further south.