‘A small task force, Prime Minister,’ said Guinness. ‘The Ocean is still off Cox’s Bazaar, after being diverted from exercises under the Five Power Defence Agreement with Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand.’
‘Remind me about the Five Power Defence Agreement. Is it significant for this scenario?’
‘It was drawn up in the 1960s when we were in conflict with Indonesia. We have treaty obligations to Singapore and Malaysia, should they ask for our support. If either government feels threatened, they can call us in.’
‘Are the Australian and New Zealand navies with the Ocean?’
‘After the cyclone, the exercises switched to become a real-life military humanitarian operation. HMS Ocean is the command vessel. She has five hundred marines, most of whom are now ashore in the cyclone area, six Sea King helicopters and six Sea Harrier ground-attack aircraft. The Special Boat Squadron is also on board with one of its new VSVs.’
‘What do they do?’ said Pincher.
‘VSV means Very Slender Vessel. They go at sixty knots in all weather and have a range of seven hundred miles, although I’m not sure that it would be relevant to this meeting.’
‘It may be,’ said Pincher. ‘Go on.’
‘Prime Minister,’ interrupted Eileen Glenny, pointing up to the clock, ‘we have ten minutes max before the top of the hour and we need it to be you, not anyone else.’
Pincher nodded, but looked back over to the Defence Secretary: ‘If Drake had time to finish his game of bowls in Plymouth, I certainly have the time to know what we have in the Bay of Bengal.’
‘The frigate Grafton and destroyer Liverpool are there with support ships,’ said David Guinness, ‘together with two nuclear-powered attack submarines, the Triumph and the Talent. The Australians have their diesel-powered Collins-class submarine, the Sheean. Singapore has a submarine in the exercise — I don’t have the name. After the trouble at the end of Prime Minister Mahatir’s rule, the one Malaysian submarine doesn’t work. They have sent up a frigate, the Jebat. Singapore did have a corvette, the Vigilance, which didn’t go on to Chittagong. New Zealand has the frigate Te Kaha and a support ship.’
‘Foreign Secretary,’ said Pincher, ‘have you been in touch with our European allies?’
‘The French and Germans are noncommittal. Neither has made a statement yet,’ said Baker.
‘The Americans?’
‘President Hastings is on his way back to Washington from Camp David. I understand he has called a meeting of the Principals’ Committee.’
Pincher turned to his Private Secretary. ‘Get Hastings on the phone.’
‘President Gorbunov is just coming through from Moscow, sir,’ said the private secretary. ‘He says it’s urgent and is prepared to speak in English.’
‘Prime Minister, we must put out this statement,’ pressed Eileen Glenny.
‘Is there anything about China in there?’
‘The border skirmish with India. No. I think it’s too tangential.’
‘Like hell it is!’ said Pincher. He drummed his fingers on the table, thinking. ‘All right. Say this. The Defence Cabinet Committee is monitoring developments. A British task force now helping cyclone victims in the Bay of Bengal was immediately put on full alert. We are liaising with our European allies. The Prime Minister is speaking personally to the Presidents of the United States and Russia.’ Pincher paused.
Glenny prompted: ‘Whose side are we on?’
‘At the moment we’re neutral, Eileen. Tell them that, but also remind them that India is a democracy and both China and Pakistan are not. Our support has a natural channel through which to run.’
‘Is it wise to bring China in at this stage?’ said Baker hesitantly. ‘We don’t want to upset them unnecessarily.’
‘If you think Hamid Khan would have ordered a nuclear strike without first consulting China, Christopher, you should spend less time in your mistress’s bed and more time reading your brief. Yes, we bring in China right now, and that is what I will be telling Hastings and Gorbunov.’
Eileen Glenny left the room, writing on her clipboard as she went. Pincher picked up the telephone call from Gorbunov.
‘President Gorbunov, thank you so much for calling. If any power centre is the key to defusing this crisis, it surely is the Kremlin.’
‘Thank you, Anthony,’ said Gorbunov in English so fluent that it was difficult to tell him from a Bostonian. ‘I am calling because I am worried about the Americans. I have just spoken to the Ambassador here, Milton Ashdown, who was boasting about the Americans being the only power with responsibility to intervene. It could be disastrous. This is not the nineties. I feel strongly that India and Pakistan, even China if it comes to that, must be allowed to sort out their own grievances.’
‘Not if nuclear fallout is concerned.’
‘Of course. But we can stop that. China holds the military tap to Pakistan. We hold it to both India and China. I can turn it on and off at will. But if the United States blunders in, Russians will regard you in the West as the common enemy.’
‘I am talking to John Hastings in the next few minutes,’ said Pincher.
‘Tell him that I will guarantee best efforts to stop an Indian nuclear retaliation, if he can guarantee keeping America out of this dispute.’
‘The conventional war will continue.’
‘And may the best man win.’
State Department, Washington, DC
The land line was open to the Embassy in Delhi. A satellite link had been set up with Pakistan and the secure encrypted connection was being used with Beijing. The State Department’s Management Crisis Center was manned round the clock by three staff, specializing in foreign policy, security and the military. They liaised constantly with counterparts in the White House situation room and in the Pentagon.
Ten minutes earlier, the Crisis Center had been elevated to Task Force level. Across the corridor, two rooms were being opened up. One was for consular staff to field calls about Americans living in Pakistan and China. It was linked by a sparsely furnished reception room with a few chairs and a photocopier to the small Task Force room with an oval desk in the middle and ten work stations, four on each side and one at each end. The single television on one wall was on split screens, taking in the rolling global channels together with Indian and Pakistani television.
Just down the corridor outside the Crisis Center area, Joan Holden put down the telephone from Jamie Song in Beijing. The conversation was cordial, wary and noncommittal on both sides. She had also spoken to Christopher Baker in London, and the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Russia. Records of her conversations were being printed out, together with the latest reports from the embassies.
With her informal manner, she had insisted the State Department meeting took place in the Crisis Center, so officers could keep an eye on their work. So far staff from the South Asia and East Asia Pacific Affairs Bureaux had arrived together with officers from the Department of Defense, Consular Affairs, USAID, the PolMil (political/ military) Division, and Medical and someone from Public Affairs to handle the press. Experts on nuclear, biological and chemical warfare were expected within minutes.
After the Pakistan coup, the attack on Dharamsala and the SFF operation in Lhasa, the Crisis Center did not stand up as a task force, because no American lives were at risk. Pakistan’s nuclear strike and China’s incursion into India did not involve the American military and, at this stage, the State Department remained the lead Federal agency to handle the crisis.