A message from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Geneva, which monitors all nuclear risk, came through reporting on the prevailing wind, the blast-danger area and the concentration of population. Joan Holden saw that thinly populated civilian areas were affected, and the blast and wind direction was such that the threat would have diminished by the time the dust cloud reached any significant town. Consular officials reported that no American citizens were known to be in the area.
Holden’s executive secretary had already mobilized two thirty-seat aircraft to fly to Islamabad and Delhi in what was known as a non-combative environment operation. Each was medically equipped to evacuate seriously ill or injured American citizens, be they Embassy staff or civilians. There was strict procedure, known as the ‘no double standard rule’, which meant that all Americans would be treated equally.
Plans were put in place for an ‘authorized departure’ from both embassies which would allow dependants and non-essential staff to leave. If the crisis escalated, an ‘ordered departure’ would take place and finally a special aircraft would be on stand-by to evacuate a core of staff who had to stay behind until the last minutes before closing the Embassy.
Given that neither India nor Pakistan were considered hostile governments, Holden hoped she could keep events on track so that didn’t happen.
She picked up the phone and talked directly to Tom Bloodworth at the National Security Council in the White House. ‘The IAEA say the fallout of the strike can be confined,’ she said, hoping he would take her lead to play it softly. Bloodworth’s job was to devise a plan according to presidential policy. Bloodworth could hand out hard truths. Holden had to be more measured.
She walked into the Crisis Management Center. ‘I’ve got five minutes for a brief from each of you, then I’m off to the White House,’ she said.
Pentagon City, Virginia, USA
A stream of military personnel moved back and forth along the Eisenhower Corridor on the third floor of the Pentagon building, where the Defense Secretary, Alvin Jebb, was preparing for the White House meeting. His personal staff handled the mass of queries coming into his office in room 3E880. Jebb had alerted the Military Command Center in the Pentagon that he would be going there straight after seeing the President. He asked that the Joint Chiefs of Staff meet him in a secure room known as the Tank, so called because going into it was compared to climbing into a tank.
Jebb had just finished a conversation with the Commander-in-Chief, Pacific (CINCPAC) in Hawaii, who controlled American forces in the Asia — Pacific, stretching from the American west coast to the Mediterranean. He had found the nub of what he needed to know. The brand new Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, with forty-three fixed-wing aircraft on board, had just entered the Indian Ocean where it was heading for a port visit to Trincomalee in Sri Lanka. It was travelling with an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer, USS Higgins, an Oliver Hazard Perry-class guided-missile frigate, USS Rodney M. Davis, and an Aegis-cruiser, USS Vela Gulf, which was carrying a sea-based theatre missile-defence system, together with support ships and the SSN attack submarines USS Greeneville and USS Toledo.
The carrier group could either continue its journey into the Indian Ocean or double back to the Arabian Sea. Its aircraft gave it a power-projection radius of more than 1,100 kilometres. Its cruise missiles could hit either India or Pakistan from where it was now. It was this carrier group which would provide the core of any American military intervention.
Jebb had already spoken to David Guinness, his counterpart in London, who had informed him about the British-led naval force in the Bay of Bengal. The last thing Jebb wanted was for his forces to get sucked into a nuclear war between two developing nations. He agreed with John Hastings that the United States had become overstretched as the world’s policeman and if two governments wanted to fight, they should be allowed to.
The plan he was drawing up now was for a short, sharp hit at the nuclear facilities of both countries, like taking air-pistols away from kids in the school playground.
The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC
‘I’m sorry, Mr President,’ said Tom Bloodworth, ‘we have no idea how the Indians will respond. Prime Minister Dixit is not taking calls, nor is any member of his cabinet. I have even failed to get through to Chandra Reddy, whom I consider to be a personal friend. They seemed to have shut down the Operational Directorate in South Block. We have picked up a new burst of highly encrypted SIGINT from near the village of Karwana about a hundred miles north of Delhi.’
‘Meaning what?’ said John Hastings.
‘If it means anything it is that the Indians have a war bunker out there, probably dug underneath a farmhouse or something. The signals have never been used before, so we would have no way of knowing before now. There is heavy cloud cover over much of India so it is impossible to check on any preparations for a nuclear or conventional response. As yet, we have not deciphered the code being used from Karwana, but we expect to have something within a few hours.’
‘By which time Pakistan could be one big nuclear wasteland.’
The Situation Room where the Principals’ Committee had gathered was in the basement of the West Wing of the White House, a small wood-panelled room able to accommodate only about two dozen people. The key conference area was protected by bullet-proof glass. The Committee, led by the President of the United States, met in times of crisis and usually comprised the secretaries of Defense, Commerce, State and Treasury, together with the heads of the CIA, FBI and any other Federal agency involved. For this session, the FBI and the Treasury had not been brought in. But Ennio Barber, the President’s personal adviser, was there.
‘Joan, tell us about American citizens,’ said Hastings.
‘None killed or injured that we know of,’ said Holden. ‘A task force has been set up and we’re getting a lot of calls. We are advising all American citizens to leave both India and Pakistan.’
‘Isn’t that a bit panicky?’ said Barber.
‘The launch to impact time between Delhi and Islamabad is eleven minutes. It would be irresponsible not to get them out. In fact, we’re asking the airlines to lay on airlifts from major cities so that any American citizen who wants to leave, can. The Ambassadors in Islamabad and Delhi have made personal appeals to both Hamid Khan and Hari Dixit to have a nuclear ceasefire until this has happened. Dixit, as we know, has gone to ground. The message has been passed through the Indian Ambassador to the United Nations and here in Washington. Khan has responded. He has pledged not to strike again. But he’s asked us to get India to pull back and stop threatening the existence of Pakistan.’
‘He thinks he can nuclear strike his way to an international negotiating table,’ said Hastings. ‘Alvin, I don’t want you involved in this, but tell me what you’ve got.’
‘A carrier group is off the southern coast of Sri Lanka,’ said Jebb. ‘I suggest we send it right up into the Indian Ocean. We have a smaller group from the Fifth Fleet led by the USS John C. Stennis in the Gulf of Oman which we can get into the Arabian Sea and up towards the Pakistani coast. Power projection from both groups is well over seven hundred miles, so there would be little risk of radiation if there is a full nuclear exchange.’