At the height of the airstrikes the Shaoguan exploded in a wall of fire. The three surviving divers had cleared the area, surfaced and commandeered an ageing Carpentaria-class river patrol craft, shooting the lone Burmese guard from the water before boarding. The New Zealand diver took over the 20mm heavy machine gun while the other two started the engine. They were spotted as they were gathering speed heading south out of the harbour. The New Zealander opened fire and was killed in the return fire. After that the boat reached its maximum speed of just over 25 knots and had a clear run to Indian territorial waters.
Attempts to intercept the commandos with a Chinese fast patrol boat from Little Cocos Island was cut short by an Indian MiG-27 pilot who blew it out of the water.
Of the three snipers, holding back the Chinese ground troops, one Malay was killed, an Australian escaped and another New Zealander was shot and captured. It was his anonymous face which would later appear on television screens throughout the world as China used him to try and change the course of the war.
Western Hills, Military Headquarters, China
President Tao chaired the meeting in the conference room which looked out onto the main operations centre of the Chinese military’s war headquarters. General Leung Liyin, Defence Minister and General Secretary of the Central Military Commission, was giving a gloomy summary of China’s incursion into India. Also present were Tang Siju, the General Staff strategic planner, who was mainly tied up with Tibet, and the Foreign Minister, Jamie Song.
‘We are cut off in Arunachal Pradesh,’ said General Leung Liyin. ‘The Indians have moved their airpower from the western front with Pakistan to the east against us. Our satellites show Indian aircraft at Kalaikunda, Barrakpore, Hashimara and Bagdogra in West Bengal and Tezpur and Chabua in Assam. Airports in Sikkim, in Gauhati and Jorhat in Assam and Itanagar in Arunachal Pradesh are supporting fighter and transport detachments. The main air-defence squadron is operating out of Hashimara, using MiG-23s and MiG-27s with maximum weapons loads because of the short range of the strikes. Indian airstrikes have cut the road north and destroyed the bridges, and are wearing down our positions. Artillery barrages are continuous. They have airdropped thousands of troops behind our lines. Some are Tibetans from the Special Frontier Force, which India said it had disbanded. None has been taken alive. They commit suicide with cyanide capsules rather than face capture.’
‘Will we hold the territory?’ said President Tao.
‘At the present level we can hold for two or three days. We need to bring aircraft in from the north and the east to use against the paratroopers. Until we do that we cannot begin to repair the bridges.’
‘It would mean weakening our defences along the Taiwan Straits?’
‘Yes. If we were to bring an effective force to rout the Indians.’
‘The Prime Minister of Singapore kindly telephoned me warning that President Lin might exploit our difficulties. He didn’t say what, but Singaporean intelligence is second to none in East Asia. He also warned that our South-East Asian neighbours were uneasy about Myanmar’s role in our dispute with India.’
‘It’s none of their business,’ said Tang.
‘Comrade Song, could you let me have your assessment.’
‘It sounds as if Singapore is speaking with a forked tongue. Naturally, Taiwan will be planning the most effective measures to humiliate us. You don’t need to be a spy to know that. I would also expect the Association of South-East Asian Nations to be worried about our relationship with Myanmar now that conflict has broken out. What I’m unsure of is whether Prime Minister John Chiu is acting as a messenger for the United States or on his own initiative. His warning, however, points up dangers in continuing our campaign.’
‘We must also remember that as soon as we appear weak, internal forces of dissent might appear,’ said Tang. ‘I would forfeit Arunachal Pradesh and concentrate on Tibet and Taiwan.’
‘Are we in danger of losing Myanmar’s support?’ asked Tao.
‘It depends on Japan and ASEAN,’ said Jamie Song. ‘If ASEAN withdraws its tacit support for the regime and if Japan withdraws its aid programme, the regime may look at its options.’
‘I disagree,’ said General Leung. ‘Myanmar is run by a military government which relies on us for its international defence and its weapons. If Myanmar abandons us at this time, the government will fall within weeks.’
‘How can you be sure of it?’ said Song.
‘I will make sure it happens, and they know it.’ General Leung broke off abruptly as an aide walked into the room with a message on a computer printout. The meeting was silent as he read it, then passed it onto President Tao. ‘This is a signals report from Little Cocos Island. The naval base at Great Cocos Island is under attack.’
‘By India?’ said Song
‘That is unclear. It says that one of the enemy has been captured and he has a white face.’
President Tao slammed his hand on the table and shouted at Jamie Song: ‘Call Ambassador Overhalt and tell him that while I have tolerated direct American participation in the action against Pakistan, I will not tolerate it attacking our military bases. I want a full explanation within thirty minutes, or we’ll send a missile into Guam.’
Song retreated to a quieter spot to call Reece Overhalt. When he returned to the meeting, he said: ‘The Americans know nothing about the raid. They were not involved.’
The Kremlin, Moscow, Russia
Instead of angrily picking up the telephone, President Gorbunov of Russia paced his office, hands behind his back, with music from Tchaikovsky’s ‘1812 Overture’ playing loudly around him. He had just received news of the American non-lethal airstrike on Pakistan and was watching BBC and CNN commentators announcing that Pakistan no longer existed as a functioning nation. The UN, backed by the European Union and the United States, had revealed that it was drawing up plans for running an interim government with a peace-keeping force of thirty thousand to ensure basic facilities such as power and water were functioning. Gorbunov had just absorbed that when another message came through about the Indian airstrikes against Chinese positions in Arunachal Pradesh, andthat was followed up by news of the raid on Great Cocos Island.
Gorbunov’s bipolar world of the United States and Western Europe balanced by a strategic alliance of Russia, China and India was collapsing salami-style, slice by slice, with no defining event. This was why Gorbunov was deep in thought, because if no single event was great enough to force him to act, he would have to decide where the point of no return lay. If he waited beyond that, Russia would lose any power it had, switching within hours from the role of statesman in an unstable world to that of a pariah blocking peace.