‘Then what is your suggestion?’
Again Leung lapsed into silence. ‘Population centres,’ he finally said. ‘That would force America’s hand and bring Taiwan to its knees.’
The Situation Room, The White House, Washington, DC
‘The Taiwanese and Japanese are giving us full access to their intelligence. Coupled with our own it provides a graphic picture. We have imagery of rail missile movements in Fujian province,’ said Tom Bloodworth. ‘Fighter aircraft are being flown into bases along the eastern coastline — Shantou, Xiamen, Quanzhou and Fuzhou. There is evidence of ground troops massing for a seaborne landing on the island chain of Pei-kan, Nan-kan and Pai-chuan, which are controlled by Taiwan.’
‘The Japanese Defence Minister has telephoned saying they are deploying their forces towards the Taiwan Straits, including the helicopter carrier Osumi.’
‘Surely they’re not going to get involved?’
‘He gave me the impression that they didn’t mind if they did, providing we were on side,’ said Jebb. ‘Their intelligence analysts anticipate a Chinese missile strike within the hour.’
‘What targets?’ said Bloodworth.
‘That’s uncertain.’
‘Lin is refusing to call off the celebrations,’ said Holden. ‘I talked to him directly.’
‘John Chiu in Singapore corroborates with the Japanese,’ said Hastings. ‘He is convinced China will take military action.’
‘Sir, we have to announce what we are going to do,’ said Ennio Barber. ‘The sending of a carrier group just isn’t washing on Capitol Hill. They know it won’t be there in time.’
‘Sorry to interrupt, John,’ said Bloodworth. ‘We are getting reports in about an Indian missile strike on Burma.’
‘The Chinese military there?’
‘It seems to be wider spread, including airstrikes.’ Bloodworth continued reading from the computer screen. ‘Sorry. The report is that the Agni medium-range ballistic missile is being prepared for launch at a site just north of Calcutta. No indication of its target. The range is 1,600 miles, so it could hit Tibet or Burma. A lighter warhead could take it deep inside China itself, 2,000 to 2,500 miles range.’
‘Get Hari Dixit on the line,’ snapped Hastings.
‘We’ve also got pictures of a Prithvi missile on a semi-erect mobile launch pad north of Dimapur on India’s eastern tip. There’s bad cloud cover there, so there could be a lot more of them, say around Tezpur or Imphal. Our ELINT and SIGINT people are picking up a big increase in military air traffic in eastern India. Just about every known airfield under the north-east military command is on a high alert. A massive influx of fighter and ground-attack aircraft are coming in from the west.’
‘The Indian Prime Minister on the line, Mr President.’
John Hastings took the call on a mobile receiver, standing up, and put the conversation on open speaker. ‘Hari, what are you up to in the east?’
‘We’re going to take back our territory and neutralize the threat posed by Myanmar’s alliance with China.’
‘I’m asking you to hold off. Wait until this Taiwan crisis has died down.’
‘If we don’t act during it, we will be defeated.’
‘All right, Hari. I don’t know if you’ve heard this from your own people, but we believe there’s a Chinese nuclear-armed Xia submarine in the Indian Ocean. It can reach anywhere in India. We’ve got the Ronald Reagan carrier group looking for it. Four attack submarines are after it, but it is nowhere near the Kilo sub which sank the Bombay. No one wants China to launch from that sub. The country’s vulnerable, confused and nervous right now. Do nothing, Hari. Be like Israel in the Gulf War. Take the punches, but don’t hit back. Help me wind down the crisis and you have my word we’ll work out a comprehensive Asian defence policy which will safeguard all our interests.’
Just before Dixit was able to reply, Bloodworth said: ‘Chinese missile launch on Taiwan. Three, four — no, five launches from the Huangshan 52 base. They would be the DF-15s.’
Military Headquarters, Western Hills, China
‘Three minutes to impact,’ said Leung. ‘The enemy’s Patriot missiles have been activated. Four enemy air-defence missiles launched.’ He turned to President Tao. ‘We have fired sufficient missiles to ensure that we have at least two hits.’
Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square, Taipei, Taiwan
The air-raid sirens began as columns of school-children filed through into Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square. The palace at the head of the square, with its white walls and blue Chinese-style roof, housed a bronze statue of Chiang Kai-Shek. Although defeated by Mao Zedong, he had created this defiant island state which was now admired by Western democracies and Asian economic tigers alike. Soldiers stood solemnly on guard unaffected by the commotion going on around them. Even when the siren sounded, they did not look up. On either side of the square were the National Theatre and National Concert Hall and the square itself was used by thousands on special occasions. They gathered in 1992 for the first direct elections to the legislature, in 1996 for the first presidential elections and now, as Taiwan was about to declare independence, it was only fitting that the occasion be marked in Chiang Kai-Shek Memorial Square. School-children, unprepared and unrehearsed, some clutching lunch boxes, stood in pairs, holding hands nervously, while their teachers worried about how to arrange them. Officials handed out the red and blue Taiwanese flag for them to wave and a band started up with a ceremonial regiment from the army. To hold everyone’s attention were huge screens strung up so they could see one from wherever they were, showing proceedings in the nearby Parliament buildings, where the Legislative Yuan was debating the vote on independence.
A decade earlier, the National Assembly voted by an overwhelming majority of 261 to 8 to eliminate Taiwan’s status as a province of China. By doing so, the Assembly was taking another tentative step towards complete independence. As a province, Taiwan accepted that it was part of mainland China. It appointed a governor and had its own provincial assembly, and the decision to end the facade meant severing yet another link of its bothersome relationship with the mainland.
The sirens did not create great consternation in the square. They were a regular element of city life in Taipei, as were the anti-aircraft batteries on the roofs of tall buildings. It was only when the children saw the streak of a missile flaming skywards and pointed excitedly that the teachers recognized something was wrong. Police from the cordon ran in and began the fruitless task of herding the children towards an air-raid shelter, and by the time the third Patriot missile had been fired, they were running in terror, but still with discipline, in pairs, holding hands, as they had been taught to since they were in kindergarten. Then Taiwanese fighter planes screamed overhead, so loud that people put their hands to their ears, and stopped dead in their tracks to watch, hoping that they alone would save them from the danger in the skies.