The Private Secretary to the Philippine President, Miguel Luzong, opened the high teak double doors to the conference room without knocking. As he walked across the room the President's concentration was distracted towards the news he was about to receive. The conversation around the table faded, then quietened while the man who used to command the Philippine Armed Forces was told about Mischief Reef.
`This has just happened, sir,' said the Private Secretary.
Luzong addressed the meeting of ministers and businessmen. `Gentlemen, our troops have met resistance in their attempt to recover Mischief Reef and we have lost contact. We are sending reinforcements.'
The powerful Mayor of Manila, Hernesto Lim, a Chinese-Filipino, replied quickly. `Don't, Mr President. Speaking for the overseas Chinese community, we ask you to back off. If we send reinforcements, they'll send reinforcements. We cannot hold that territory, nor for any reason except national pride do we want to.'
`National pride is not an unimportant sentiment, Hernesto,' Luzong countered.
`It is a disease which is afflicting the Chinese government at the moment and might well destroy it. This country suffered from the disease of dictatorship for twenty years. It made us the sick man of Asia. While Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand became rich, the Philippines became a joke. Mr President, this South China Sea conflict is not one for us. It is for America, China, and Japan. If we take sides, like we did during the Cold War, our national morale will be destroyed again. We will be accused of being an American puppet. Let us take a lead from Malaysia. They have abandoned the Mariveles, Ardasier, and Swallow Reefs, even their airbase at Terumbi Layang-layang. Forget about Mischief Reef. We rid ourselves of the Americans in 1992. We restored democracy. We are building the foundations of a Philippine heritage of which we can be proud. Our economy, much of which is interlinked to the Chinese communities throughout the world, is growing strong. We fought the Cold War while our ASEAN neighbours kept a low profile and became rich. If another global conflict is approaching, let us not get involved. Let us concentrate on building hospitals, roads, airports, ports, power stations, schools, and houses for our people. That, sir, is where our duty as leaders of the country lies.'
`And we let China take over the South China Sea?' prompted Luzong.
`What does it matter? They will allow trade.'
`My generals are restless.'
`Then they should pick a battle that they can win. If they can't defeat the Muslim terrorists in the south, they shouldn't pick a fight with the People's Liberation Army.' Without calling for a vote, the President looked at each man around the room, then nodded to his Private Secretary to call off the recovery of Mischief Reef.
Twenty-four hours after their first meeting, James Bradlay, the American President, was alone with Martin Weinstein, his National Security Adviser. The first pictures of the bombing of Ho Chi Minh City were being broadcast on CNN. The correspondent speculated that it had been targeted because it was a favourite winter retreat for the Vietnamese cabinet.
`It's to prove their long-range attack capability,' Weinstein said quietly. `Saigon is 500 kilometres from Yulin, their southernmost airbase. It's evidence of their in-flight refuelling capabilities, which gives them at least thirty minutes to attack, turn, and go back. We call it loiter time.'
The appeal by Nguyen Van Tai, dubbed and translated, was run over the scenes of devastation on the roof of the Rex Hotel. An American woman, with blood streaming down her side, carried a child wrapped in a tablecloth away from the debris.
`So what have you got for me, Marty?'
The NSA outlined America's immediate military capability.
The 100,000 tonne nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman had been redirected from the Sea of Japan towards the Chinese blockade. No public announcement would be made yet. She could be on the edge of the South China Sea within twenty-four hours. She was carrying 20 F-14 Tomcat fighters, 36 F/A-18 Hornet fighter-bombers, 4 EA-6B Prowler electronics countermeasures aircraft, 4 E-2C Hawkeye early warning aircraft, 6 S-3A Viking submarine hunters, and 8 SH-3 Seahawk rescue helicopters.
She led a formidable battle group which once within the South China Sea could project power throughout. It comprised the brand-new 9,217 ton Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyer USS Oscar Austin, commissioned only a year earlier, carrying Harpoon anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine missile torpedoes (ASROC), and Mk50 torpedoes; the 4,100 ton Oliver Hazard Perry class guided-missile frigate USS Ford, with similar weaponry; the 8,040 ton Spruance class destroyer USS Hayler, whose armaments included Tomahawk long-range land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles and Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles; the Kilauea class ammunition ship USS Shasta; the Jumboized Cimarron class oiler USS Willamette; and the 9,466 ton Ticonderoga class guided-missile Aegis cruisers USS Port Royal and USS Vella Gulf. They carried Tomahawks, Harpoons, standard surface-to-air missiles, ASROC, and Mk32, Mk46, and Mk50 torpedoes. Three submarines accompanied the group, the Los Angeles class USS Cheyenne, Columbia, and Boise.
Another American battle group was led by the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz, which because of her age was confined to the East Asia region. Joining her was the Tarawa class amphibious assault ship USS Peleliu. With 1,600 Marines on board, she had been on joint training exercise for international disaster relief with Philippine Marines, and was heading back to Hawaii when ordered to stay with the Nimitz. The battle group was holding its position in the Sulu Sea near the Cagayan Islands between Negros and Palawan. It was only eight hours' sailing time from the South China Sea.
`Are you telling me, Marty, we could just go in there and take back the South China Sea and the islands?' asked Bradlay.
`Yes and no, Mr President,' Weinstein replied. `The Chinese might have a lousy army, navy, and air force. But when it comes to missiles you could say they are getting close to us. You only need one missile to get through the net to reap destruction. The Bunker Hill is there to help our own IMINT operations. She can watch any missile from its launch up through the atmosphere and down again to target. So the Chinese could up the stakes and threaten to send a missile into Vietnam or something if we move against them.'
`And we couldn't shoot it down?'
`There would be no guarantee. And there's one other thing.'
`Go on.'
`We have the same problem as China. We could take the South China Sea, but we couldn't hold it. The best damn navy in the world is simply not powerful enough. Our armed forces are suffering from the Base Plan implemented in 1992 by the then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Colin Powell. Our navy ships have been cut from 443 to 340; our carrier battle groups from 14 to 12; our air force fighter wings from 16 to 13. The armed forces have been cut and cut, yet our commitments are increasing.'