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The Cabinet Office, London
Local time: 1300 Tuesday 20 February 2001

British policy on Operation Dragonstrike was being moulded by the brightest men in the Civil Service. The Cabinet Office Chairman of the Overseas Policy and Defence Committee prepared to open a meeting which would make recommendations to the ministerial committee within the next hour. He was also a member of the Joint Intelligence Committee, making him one of Britain's most influential civil servants. Eight of his colleagues put their papers on a large square table which dated back to the eighteenth century. The high-ceilinged rooms of the Cabinet Office on the corner of Whitehall and Downing Street had been used in crises for centuries to discuss British national interests in far-flung parts of the world. Today each of the salient departments was represented: the Foreign Office, the Ministry of Defence, the Department of Trade, the Treasury, and the three key branches of the intelligence services, the Security Service, better known to the public as MI5, which deals with any threat against the United Kingdom, the Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6, which unlike the Central Intelligence Agency deals only with intelligence which is gathered secretly, and the SIGINT GCHQ listening posts. A CIA representative was also present, in marked contrast to Britain's European partners, none of whom had been asked. Meetings like this were evidence that despite the public posturing of governments towards European integration and a common foreign policy, in a crisis America and Great Britain worked as one.

The Chairman opened the discussion by summarizing the situation as of 1230. The meeting's task was to set out the options and recommend a course of action for the Cabinet Committee on Defence and Overseas Policy, which would begin at 1400, chaired by the Prime Minister. The tone was sober and practical. But they had to imagine the unimaginable: with the USS Peleliu entering the South China Sea, in what way would Britain give practical and moral military support if called upon?

The Ministry of Defence said that a significant British naval presence, together with Australian and New Zealand warships, happened to be in the South China Sea on deployment through Asia to Australia. The task force had been taking part in exercises of the Five-Power Defence Agreement off the Malaysian coast. The ships were anchored off Bandar Seri Begawan, the capital of Brunei. The 20,600 ton Invincible class aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal, with 9 Sea Harrier fighters and 12 Westland Sea King and Merlin helicopters, led the most complex mixed group in the Asian region since the British withdrawal from Hong Kong four years earlier. Accompanying her were the Duke class frigates HMS Sutherland, which had only been commissioned in 1997 and HMS Montrose, and the nineteen-year-old Type 42 class destroyer HMS Liverpool. The state of the art 16,000 ton assault ship HMS Albion, commissioned only the previous year, had 300 Marines on board. They were being made ready for any evacuation of foreign nationals. HMS Ark Royal also had with her the Trafalgar class nuclear attack submarine HMS Triumph. The Australians had the Anzac class frigate HMAS Parramatta and the Adelaide class frigate HMAS Sydney, together with a diesel-powered Collins class submarine, HMAS Rankin, commissioned in 1997. New Zealand had the Leander class frigate HMNZS Canterbury. British, Australian, and New Zealand special forces, who had been training near Invercargill, on New Zealand's South Island, were being flown to Bandar Seri Begawan to join the ships.

The Ministry of Defence then said that the Sultan of Brunei had, however, asked that the warships remain anchored so as not to inflame the crisis. The CIA representative asked whether Britain would be prepared to go against the Sultan's wishes. The Chairman was equivocal, replying that because Brunei deposited much of its money in British banks, it would be better to leave his territory with his assent.

The Foreign Office said that more than 200 Britons were caught up in the conflict. Some 50 were oil workers. The rest were mostly in northern Vietnam, including a group of four English language teachers in the city of Lang Son, on the Chinese border. They had reported the city filling up with Vietnamese troops. Local residents were certain there would be an attack across the border. The CIA and GCHQ representatives confirmed that their own COMINT (communications) and ELINT (electronic) intelligence supported that account. The CIA representative affirmed that the National Security Agency also held that view. He added that satellite IMINT (imagery intelligence) had picked up Chinese Su-27s on the runway of the captured Terumbi Layang-layang island, which was claimed by Malaysia.

The CIA representative asked if any other European military forces would be involved. The Chairman replied that if the United States wished for symbolic support several other governments could be invited to join. If, however, they were actually going into action against China, it was best to keep it tight: America, France, and Britain. The conclusions of the meeting, which were, remarkably, unanimous for so many different departments, were printed out for the ministers within forty-five minutes. The Prime Minister's Committee on Defence and Overseas Policy decided to give full public support for the humanitarian mission of the USS Peleliu. It decided that the Ark Royal task force would sail from Brunei with or without the Sultan's blessing. British support would continue through to conflict if necessary. High Commissioners reported back from Canberra and Wellington that Australia's and New Zealand's warships would stay with the group under the operational control of the Ark Royal.

The Foreign Ministry, Beijing
Local time: 2100 Tuesday 20 February 2001
GMT: 1300 Tuesday 20 February 2001

Foreign correspondents were called to the Foreign Ministry briefing room at thirty minutes' notice for a news conference by Jamie Song. Unlike the previous venue at the tatty International Club in the Jiangguomenwei diplomatic compound, the media room at the new Foreign Ministry building was a gleaming example of Asian high-tech communications. A huge screen behind the stage carried a coloured map of South-East Asia. Technicians flashed lights on and off to test the equipment before Jamie Song arrived. The CCTV cameras were allowed to the front. Several international networks were taking live feeds. The Foreign Minister arrived twenty minutes late, walked straight onto the stage, and spoke in English without interpreters for the benefit of the live transmissions.

`I'm sorry to have called you all here at such short notice,' he began. `And to have interrupted your evening. Unfortunately, it is turning into a busy few days. I have just come from Zhongnanhai. I won't keep you long. About an hour ago, the Ambassadors of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar, and the Philippines, under instructions from their governments, signed a Memorandum of Understanding which reaffirmed previous policy on the South China Sea. In a nutshell, it means they recognize Chinese sovereignty. All exploitation of oil, gas, and mineral reserves will be done in agreement with each other. No foreign forces will be allowed in the area. China is responsible for security. Commercial trade routes will not be affected. Outside the MOU, all the governments have agreed to help bring Vietnam back into our regional community. My government believes that after a decent interval, China and Vietnam can live in peace with mutual cooperation. I have time to take a couple of questions. But keep them specific on the MOU. I'm not taking anything on the South China Sea in general.'