“Was it wise to go public with that information?” Myers asked.
“The apology and rejection were issued through back channels. Somehow, the information was leaked,” Ito said.
Only an act of iron will kept a grin from stealing across Tanaka’s scowling face. His people had leaked the story to one of the right-wing papers, along with one of the largest left-leaning blogs. Tanaka knew that both sides would be furious, albeit for different reasons. The more pressure he could bring to bear on Ito, the better. He thought Ito was weak, too willing to negotiate and compromise. Properly applied pressure would force him to act in the national interest.
“Our Ministry of Defense has put the JSDF on high alert,” Tanaka said.
“That will only add fuel to the fire, don’t you think?” Ambassador Davis asked. “The Chinese might see that as a preparation for hostilities.”
“The JSDF has orders to engage in no provocative actions,” Ito said. “My government is under extreme pressure to respond. My own party is ready to revolt if I don’t act swiftly and decisively.”
“I understand your situation, but I urge you to refrain from anything rash,” Lane said.
“Rash? Our satellites indicate that the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning is preparing to set sail within twenty-four hours from its port in Ningbo,” Tanaka said. “Our intelligence service reports that a PLA marine assault battalion has just arrived in Ningbo as well.”
“The CIA confirms both of those reports,” Lane said. “I understand your concerns. But these could all be preparations for a military exercise, not an invasion of the Senkakus.”
“Would it be easier to block the Chinese from invading the islands or driving them out after they’ve landed?” Tanaka asked.
“Let’s hope that neither situation will occur,” Lane said.
“And if it does?” Tanaka asked.
That’s the question, isn’t it? Lane thought. And my answer may plunge us all into war. “The best course of action is for us to do everything we can to prevent either from happening.”
“If we restrain ourselves, we give the Chinese the opportunity to deescalate,” Ambassador Davis said.
“For the sake of argument, let’s assume we restrain ourselves. Let’s further assume the Chinese take our restraint as cowardice and decide to send the Liaoning and its support ships to the Senkakus, along with that battalion of marines. What will you do then, Mr. President?” Tanaka jabbed a finger at the desk, driving home his question.
“Katsu!” Ito said. In nearly whispered Japanese, the prime minister urged his friend to restrain himself. But Tanaka wouldn’t relent. He glowered at the video screen.
Lane took a sip of water, considering his reply. “I know President Myers briefed you on her visit to Ningbo. She was able to confirm the existence of the Wu-14, a hypersonic glide vehicle capable of disabling or destroying an aircraft carrier. This is classified information, gentlemen, but the United States currently has no known defense against this weapon. We would throw every available antimissile defense weapon at it, but all of our computer models show that the Chinese would likely score a killing strike.”
“You have other weapons in your arsenal,” Tanaka insisted. “You could take out their aircraft carrier with a sub-launched cruise missile.”
“A preemptive strike?” Myers asked, incredulous. “Like Pearl Harbor?”
“I was thinking about Israel’s Six-Day War. Do you disagree with the wisdom of their strategy?”
Myers didn’t, of course. Israel’s preemptive assault on the Egyptian air force allowed it to prevail in its war against Egypt, Syria, and Jordan.
“Or perhaps we’re speaking of deterrence,” Ito offered. “If the Chinese sink the George Washington, we sink the Liaoning. That act alone would set back their carrier program by a decade. That threat might be enough to dissuade the Chinese from any rash decisions.”
Myers shared a glance with Davis. A career diplomat, Davis had studied and lived in Japan for a decade before joining the State Department. His raised eyebrow confirmed her intuition. Ito’s use of the word “we” was significant.
“My generals and admirals are urging me to avoid conflict at all costs. Once hostilities begin, there’s no way to predict how far or how fast they would escalate. Even the threat of retaliation would prove dangerous in the current climate,” Lane said.
Myers hated to hear Lane talk like this. It almost sounded weak and cowardly. But she knew Lane and knew his distinguished combat record. She also understood the incredible pressure he must have been under from the Pentagon. When all of your senior military advisors tell you not to do something that might start a war, you tend to listen, even if you are the commander in chief. Caution was in order. The stakes were high — the highest. If a war actually did break out, there was no guarantee it would end favorably for the U.S. Wars were notoriously unpredictable. Pearce was fond of quoting the heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
“I’m sure the Chinese know as well as we do about your unwillingness to do anything to provoke them. Don’t you see that such passivity will goad them into action?” Tanaka insisted. “If you’re not willing to show your sword, then your enemies will assume you can’t use it.”
“The George Washington and other American combat forces have been ‘showing the sword’ on Japan’s behalf for seven decades,” Myers said.
“Mr. President, let’s be frank,” Ito said. “If the Chinese do start hostilities, what will the United States do? If you’re not even willing to threaten them now before hostilities begin, why would you be more willing to issue threats against them afterward?”
“The Chinese would know that we would have to respond,” Lane said.
“What if they sink your carrier?” Tanaka asked. “Won’t your response to the sinking only escalate the violence? Put even more American lives at risk?”
“The State Department doesn’t believe that China would be so foolish as to provoke either Japan or the United States into a war it couldn’t possibly win,” Davis said. “America and Japan are two of China’s largest trading partners. They have far more to lose and little to gain by starting a war over the Senkakus.”
Tanaka turned toward the American ambassador. “Then why have they created this fiction about Mao Island? Why have they started drilling operations? Don’t you understand? The Chinese have sent a very clear signal. They’re willing to start a war. And I believe they’re willing to start a war because they know you won’t do anything to oppose them.”
“Our intelligence sources disagree,” Davis said.
“With all due respect, American intelligence has fallen short on many occasions in recent years, beginning with the notable lack of WMDs in Iraq,” Ito said. “That failure of intelligence led to an unnecessary war against Saddam Hussein and a decadelong war against the Iraqi insurgency afterward. As the prime minister of Japan, I reaffirm my nation’s unwavering commitment to the United States, but I don’t affirm our confidence in your intelligence services.”
Tanaka grunted his approval. “Hai.”
Can’t say that I blame you, Myers thought. “Let’s not forget the Chinese threat about the red line that they conveniently placed just beyond the Senkakus. They said they would consider it an act of war if American naval vessels crossed it and promised to launch the Wu-14 at any carrier that did.”
Tanaka threw out several other tactical possibilities that kept the George Washington out of harm’s way, but every scenario he proposed had already been hashed out at the Pentagon. In each case, the likely outcome was war, and the only way to carry out operations against Chinese forces was with force projection and that meant deploying the George Washington and its battle group. The United States didn’t want to risk losing either. Tanaka finally threw up his hands in disgust.