Benjamin Raibani was not the only one in the room to cringe in reaction to Cohen’s last point — it was simply too cold and calculating. But Raibani was the clear leader of the faction against this idea. He was now calm and ready to embrace this analytical challenge. “I can understand your point and I agree with the military issues. But when you suggest that a public relations campaign is all we need to overcome the fallout from this, then I tell you as my friend and my prime minister — with all due respect — that you are one hundred percent wrong. The moment the world hears that we have used a nuclear weapon for anything other than retaliation, we will be completely alone.
“I will make a prediction, the president will, if we give him time, come around to support us. Why? Not because he will become your friend. Not because of A-I-pac.” Raibani was referring to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the strongest pro-Israel lobby in America. “Not because he will become buddies with Lieberman or Dershowitz or any other Jew. But because the majority of Americans are on our side. But I tell you that the day we initiate the use of nuclear weapons, regardless of the reason, is the day the vast majority of Americans turn against us. And that is the day we lose the support of the U.S. And when we lose the U.S., Israel is doomed.”
Eli Cohen drank more water and let the wisdom of Raibani wash over him. His old friend was wise and he was persuasive. It was the reason Raibani was in the room. Cohen thought about the point Raibani could have made and didn’t. The America that will react to Israel’s first use of nuclear weapons will be led by the president he had been sitting with three days earlier.
Zvi Avner could see the tide turning in Cohen’s mind. He added his voice. “Okay, now I will review some facts. Persia’s program is massive. Once all of Natanz and Fordow is up and running, it is designed to create enough highly enriched uranium for up to ten warheads a year. They will soon have Arak online and producing plutonium. They are building ballistic missiles with greater range and greater accuracy. They are gearing up for a huge arsenal. And we all know that the Saudis will not stand by and watch this happen. They will start their own program. And we will re-start our warhead program. This is going to be a massive nuclear arms race in a part of the world that — let’s be honest here — only pauses to catch its breath between wars.
“And there will only be one sure loser in this equation. Ben, you say we are doomed when we lose American opinion. Well I say we are doomed when Persia has a nuclear arsenal and the missiles to deliver them. For me, this is easy. Under your version of being doomed, we have to suffer the slings and arrows of nasty editorials — my apologies to Shakespeare. Under my version of being doomed, we will be nuked. I, for one, would rather deal with being a world pariah for a year or two than be the defense minister of Israel when Tel Aviv and Haifa are nuked into oblivion.
“And don’t sit here and tell me about mutually assured destruction and deterrence. Yes, we can nuke all of Persia into fused silicate, but every man in this room understands who Ahmadinejad is. Everyone has read his profile. Mossad’s conclusions are clear — and I agree with them. When that man has nuclear weapons, he will push to use them. Okay, maybe today Khamenei would stop him. But what about tomorrow? Everyone in this room should read about the Twelfth Imam believers. This guy is nuts and to sit here and let him get nuclear weapons when we can stop him is criminal.” Avner stopped. The arguments had been well made by both sides.
Once again the prime minister filled the void. “Thank you, Zvi. I think there is a lot of passion on both sides of this argument and that is how it should be. Now I need to use the rest room. Let’s take five minutes.” Prime Minister Cohen stood and walked out of the room.
4 — Decisions
Exactly fourteen minutes later, Zvi Avner was the last man to return to the conference room. Cohen spoke up as he massaged a new cigar. “Are we all here now? Okay, we have more to cover today. Let me start by saying that this decision ultimately rests on my shoulders and I accept that. However, I want to have a consensus among this group. I don’t expect that to happen today or tomorrow, but I would like to continue to have this option available in our planning.”
Benjamin Raibani was thinking and close to speaking. Cohen read his mind and cut him off by continuing. “We need time. Time to plan. Time to obtain all the weapons we need. I think everyone here will agree that all covert efforts will be undertaken and accelerated to slow down their program.”
Heads nodded in agreement. Danny Stein spoke up for the first time. “How do we gain time, if I may ask?” Stein, the 60-year-old minister of industry, trade and labor, was respected in the group. He had spent more than a decade in the military before a successful career as an executive of Israeli Military Industries. He was the rare person who moved comfortably through the halls of politics, the military and the private sector. He had been decorated for his command of an infantry company during fighting in the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur War. His performance during that war had made his subsequent career, just as those men who faltered under combat were often ruined in Israel. He had been wounded by shrapnel from a mortar round, a wound that caused him to limp slightly the rest of life. The nation was in a perpetual state of war and relationships and respect were earned through blood on the battlefield.
“Ah, good question,” Cohen answered.“Not everything went wrong with the president. We discussed Olympic Games. He gave it the green light to continue. We…”
“Excuse me, Mister Prime Minister. What is Olympic Games?” asked Danny Stein.
“I’m sorry, Danny. Operation Olympic Games was begun about two years ago. I guess now is the time to talk about it. Only myself, Zvi, Ben and Yavi know about it. Yavi, you want to provide an overview?”
Yavi Aitan shifted forward in his seat. “Yes. Let me start by giving a little context. As was probably clear from our earlier discussion, there are a couple of key choke points in the Iranian program. The most important choke point is that they have to enrich uranium. There are a number of ways to do that, but Iran uses just one: gas centrifuges. These are not terribly complex devices, but they have to be built to fairly precise tolerances. The faster they spin, the more efficient they are. The rotor — the tube inside the centrifuge that is spinning — in a good modern centrifuge is made of carbon fiber. If, like Iran, you don’t have access to the right quality of carbon fiber, you have use a metal like aluminum. But for reasons I am not going to get into now, aluminum tubes need internal support. The support comes in the forms of rings of an alloy known as maraging steel. This is what the Iranians are using in their IR-1s and what they will probably use in the next generation centrifuges they are working on. There is a lot we are doing to keep them from getting maraging steel. But that is another discussion.”
Around the room, the three men who knew nothing about Operation Olympic Games were devoted to Aitan’s words. The minister of intelligence and atomic affairs looked at his prime minister. Cohen could tell that Aitan was not comfortable expanding the group of people who knew about Olympic Games, known inside Israel under the codename Operation Myrtus, even when it was three of the most senior members of Israeli government. Cohen spoke to reassure his young minister. “Go ahead Yavi.”