Worse came the next day. The shock of Project Block G had worn off and tens of thousands of Iranians marched the streets of Tehran burning Israeli and American flags and demanding revenge. The Iranian regime was equal to the request. A little after noon Iran time, the U.S. X-band radar site in Turkey detected the first of 98 Shahab 3 and 4 missiles launched within a two minute window. The launch had been long planned as the main retaliatory strike in the event of an Israeli attack.
Fifty-two of the missiles were aimed at targets in Tel Aviv, twenty-eight at Haifa and eighteen at the Israeli nuclear complex at Dimona in the Negev desert. The Iranian plan was to overwhelm the Israeli defenses. The plan was successful. Twenty-seven missiles landed within Tel Aviv, including two within the grounds of the Kirya, the IDF headquarters. Almost two dozen buildings were destroyed and over 1,000 Israelis would be pronounced dead once all the rubble was cleared. In Haifa, nine missiles eluded Israeli defenses and claimed the lives of seven civilians. But for Prime Minister Cohen and the IDF, the biggest blow came at Dimona. Six missiles landed within the sprawling complex, including a direct hit on the main containment building that blew a hole in the thick concrete shell of the building. The Dimona reactor had to be shutdown using emergency procedures. Only the skill of the engineers avoided a serious release of radiation.
On the same day, Hezbollah spun up its missile inventory on orders from its IRGC masters. The Israeli Air Force was back home and waiting for them. The next three days saw a repeat of the Second Lebanon War of 2006 as the IDF entered Lebanon in a measured manner to stop the rain of missiles. But the chaos in Syria and the wavering power of Bashar al-Assad had far more effect on Hezbollah than the raging warplanes of the IAF. The group was far too nervous about the developing war with Sunni Muslims in Syria to do anything other than make a showing on behalf of its Iranian benefactor. A truce was agreed to late in the afternoon of October 8 as the IDF was completing the call up of 90,000 soldiers. In the end, it took the firing of just over 400 missiles into Israel to buy Hezbollah the level of respect it sought. None of these missiles had the impact of the Iranian Shahabs.
Late in the day on Sunday, October 6, in a bunker located on the outskirts of Jerusalem, the Kitchen Cabinet discussed the carnage that Shahab missiles had caused during the day. Defense Minister Avner offered his resignation even as he demanded a nuclear response. The meeting was interrupted by a long call between Cohen and the President of the United States. There would be no nuclear response. Avner’s resignation would be accepted two weeks later. Despite the success of Block G, Zvi Avner would take the blame for the failure of Israel’s ballistic missile defense system to protect the nation.
That same day, the world press tried to decipher what exactly had happened inside Iran and how much damage had been inflicted on the Iranian program. As was typical with the early reporting in an event like Block G, stories ranged from the use by Israel of nuclear weapons on Fordow, to reports of Israeli commando teams operating far and wide inside Iran. Initial speculation on the overnight airstrikes focused on the IAF operating from Azerbaijan despite adamant denials from Azerbaijani officials that they had anything to do with the prior night’s events.
But by noon London time, the world’s media became fixated on only one thing: the unfolding damage at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant and rumors of a meltdown of the core. It would take days of wild speculation and weeks of monitoring by American aircraft to confirm that Bushehr had experienced a partial meltdown of its core but that the resulting molten slag had been successfully contained within the concrete containment building. For Israel, it had been the biggest risk taken in Block G and it had paid off.
On Monday, October 7, stock markets around the world lost more than 4 % of their value, the day starting particularly bad in Europe as Brent crude prices jumped more than $30 per barrel in the opening hour of trading. But a noontime drop in oil prices in reaction to the lack of hostilities in the Persian Gulf caused the European markets to rebound off their lows and helped limit the damage during early trading in the American markets.
Late in the day, as Iran continued to fire Shahab-3 missiles at Israel periodically, mines were discovered in the Straits of Hormuz. Skirmishes occurred sporadically between U.S. warships and IRG naval vessels in the Persian Gulf — the result typically being deadly for the Iranians. The president announced the deployment of two more American aircraft carriers in addition to the two already in the region. When an American F-22 Raptor operating out of Al Dafra Air Base in the UAE shot down a flight of three F-4 Phantoms that strayed too close to U.S. naval forces in the Gulf, oil prices skyrocketed again and equity markets fell. But despite these “unfortunate incidents,” no out-right war between the U.S. and Iran had yet begun.
During the day, two more Shahab-3 missiles evaded the Israeli missile defense system. One missile landed in a park, causing no damage. The other missile, targeted at Haifa, was a newer version of the Shahab with four independently targeted warheads. The missile struck home in downtown Haifa during the afternoon. One warhead detonated inside Rambam Medical Center, just above the ER waiting room. It killed 47 patients, medical professionals and employees. Among the more extreme pundits of the Israeli press, open calls for the deployment of nuclear weapons were discussed.
On October 8, the UN Security Council met to condemn Israel and the “war crime” of using civilian aircraft to attack Iran. The U.S. exercised its powers to keep the Security Council from passing the original resolution. Instead, a resolution was passed calling on all sides in the conflict to use restraint and stand-down. But the meeting that mattered on that day happened late in the evening in Geneva, Switzerland. After intervention by the Russians — who shared intelligence with the Iranians of U.S. preparations for an air campaign — the Iranian foreign affairs minister agreed to meet secretly with the new American secretary of state.
The two men met in a small office room in the Palace of Nations on the Avenue de la Paix — the Avenue of Peace. The message delivered by the American official was blunt. The U.S. would not accept any action by Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz. This position was well known and had been oft repeated. What the Iranian did not expect was an equally unequivocal statement that the U.S. would not stand by while ballistic missiles were fired at Israel.
The dialogue between the men was unusually frank — the type of direct language demanded by the situation and emboldened by secrecy. “I am here to tell you” stated the secretary of state, “in clear and certain terms that any missile fired by your nation at any other nation after eight in the morning your time tomorrow will be considered an act of war by the Islamic Republic of Iran against the United States of America. The reaction will be the commencement of a full-scale and unrestrained aerial campaign to destroy the offensive capability of the Iranian military. Do you understand what I am saying?”
The foreign affairs minister, who had attended university in the U.S. and spoke fluent English, looked into the eyes of the American secretary of state. After a pause, he reacted. “Shock and awe. Yes, I understand this threat.”
The next morning, Iran invited the UN secretary general to Tehran. The last missiles fired at Israel were all launched before sunrise on October 9. A de facto cease-fire took hold.