"No," Gregory declared emphatically. "That is my whole point. In all essentials Russia ’s situation is exactly the same as it was this time last year. Use large maps, as the Duke of Wellington used to say. Don't think of this year or the next but regard the matter in terms of long scale policy. The Russo German pact has altered nothing. If it has I challenge you to prove it."
Goering shrugged. "While I don't say that I, personally, was in favour of it you can't deny that we have received certain definite benefits by our alliance with Russia. By keeping her from a tie up with the Democracies we have only to wage war on one front instead of on two. Now that the Polish campaign is aver we can concentrate the whole of our air effort against the rest instead of having to detach large forces to protect Berlin. Even if we haven't succeeded in drawing Russia into the war on our side, by making her a friendly neutral we've ensured that she won't come in against us."
"Have you ensured that? How much faith do you put in the word of Joseph Stalin?"
"Not much; but it is not in his interest now to reverse his policy and deliberately stab us in the back."
"Not for the moment, perhaps; but say the war takes a fresh turn? I don't have to tell you how easily pacts can be torn up when they are signed by certain people and it suits those people to scrap them. I consider that it's quite a possibility that Russia may turn against you unless, of course, you can keep her occupied."
"Eh?" Goering's alert mind instantly picked up the hint. Gregory was literally talking for his life and now knowing that he had won a point in at last arousing the Marshal's interest he went on quickly:
"I'll come to that later. What else do you reckon that you've got out of this tie up with the Bolsheviks?"
"We can draw on them for foodstuffs and later when we have reorganized their railways we shall be able to obtain almost unlimited supplies of raw materials which will nullify the British blockade."
Gregory shook his head. "I don't believe that. You're getting a certain amount of stuff, of course Stalin has to put up some sort of a show but his industrial system is still so ill organized that he has a perfectly good excuse for not helping you to any appreciable extent. And even if you send hundreds of experts there their efforts will deliberately be sabotaged for the simple reason that Stalin does not mean you to win this war."
"What grounds have you for saying that?"
"Simply that from his point of view this war is only an episode a struggle in which he does not wish to be concerned. It may prove either inconvenient or useful to him, according to how he plays his cards in his long term policy for the reconstruction of Russia; which is the only thing that really interests
"And what do you deduce from this?"
"That the Russo German friendship pact is not worth the paper it is written on; it was just one of Stalin's cards and a very high one. He still regards Germany as his only really dangerous, potential enemy. If she emerges from the present struggle victorious his situation will be worse than ever. You know Hitler's technique. With the Western Powers disposed of he might suddenly decide to rescue the German speaking population of South Russia from Russian oppression. Then Stalin would have to face the might of Germany on his own, but… '
"Why, then, did he not go in with the Western Powers when he had the chance?" Goering interrupted.
"Firstly, because he didn't want to go to war at all if he could avoid it, and if he'd gone in with the Western Powers he'd obviously have had to resist an invasion once the German armies had overrun Poland. Secondly, he considered that the Allies were quite capable of coming out on top without his assistance. Thirdly, if he'd lined up with the Democracies he would have had to continue to observe the covenant of the League of Nations, which would have tied his hands in the Baltic."
"Ha, ha! I wondered when all this rigmarole was going to get us to Finland."
"We're doing very nicely and we shall be there in a moment.
In the meantime I hope I've made it clear that Stalin had nothing to gain and everything to lose by coming in with the
Democracies. He simply gambled on the fact very shrewdly, in my view that, whether they won or not, by keeping out he would be able to strengthen his hand against Germany.
"So far he hasn't done too badly, either." Gregory pointed. "Just look at the map. As his share of the swag you had to let him have half Poland. That enables him to build a Maginot Line there 400 miles in advance of his old frontier, which will make it infinitely more difficult for you should you ever contemplate marching into the Ukraine. Then where are your other natural bases for an invasion of Russia? Obviously the most suitable are Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia; all small countries, quite unable to resist any pressure exerted by a big neighbour, and all having considerable German populations. By one of your propaganda campaigns such as you used with the Sudeten Germans in Czechoslovakia you might easily have found it necessary to establish yourselves as the protector of these little neutrals and have established bases in them; but by his pact with you Stalin has been able to forestall you there, and it is he 'who has done this instead of you. Now where is the only remaining jumping off place which you still might use for an attack on European Russia?" ”Finland," murmured Goering, " Finland."
"Of course. The Finnish frontier is only twenty miles from Leningrad. During the last war you trained a battalion of Finns who afterwards officered the Finnish Army in the War of Independence. You also sent von der Goltz and German troops there to help fight the Bolsheviks. Finland is therefore definitely pro German and extremely anti Russian.
"In the event of Germany’s emerging from this war still unbroken she might at any time form a secret alliance with Finland. The Mannerheim Line is quite strong enough to resist an attack until Germany could land a considerable expeditionary force in the Finnish ports to reinforce it. People are laughing about the recent Moscow broadcast in which the Russians declared that the Finns were threatening them. On the face of it, the suggestion that a nation of four million people can threaten one of a hundred and eighty millions is laughable: but when we get down to the real root of the matter it is not laughable at all. The Kremlin obviously cannot announce the fact, but what they really mean is that at some future date four million Finns backed by eighty million Germans might constitute a threat to Russia, and of such a combination they have every reason to be very frightened indeed."
Goering's impatient scowl had disappeared and he refilled both their glasses as Gregory went on
"I haven't seen the English papers but I can give a pretty shrewd guess about the sort of stuff that many of them contain. They're saying: `Now Stalin has at last come out in his true colours and shown himself for the brigand that he is. All his talk about preserving peace because it is the workers who suffer most in any war was mere eyewash. he doesn't give a damn about the workers and has revived all the old imperialistic aim, of the Tsars. He's out for conquest and the rotten swine means to grab everything he can while the rest of us have got our hands full.' "
"That's right," Goering nodded. "I see a summary of everything appearing in your papers and that is the line most of them take."
"Well, they're off the mark. Stalin may be a thug but he's not an imperialist. He would still prefer to have peace if he could get what he wants without war and he's been successful so far but it's absolutely vital to him that if Russia is to be secured from German aggression in the future he should close all her western approaches now, while he's got the chance. We may dislike Stalin and be sorry for these small neutrals whom: he's blackmailing but we can't blame him, because it's his job to put the interests of Russia before everything else."