"You think, then, that, if he can't get what he's after by: threats, he really means to invade Finland: "
"I'm certain of it; because for the moment you can't possibly afford to scrap the Russo German Pact and send aid to the Finns. If he waits, some major change in the international situation a sudden peace move, perhaps might rob him of his one great opportunity to' bar that vulnerable north western gate. Therefore he must act at once and by that I mean within: the next few weeks."
"Why? Climatic conditions?"
"Yes. The lakes and swamps make Finland’s eastern frontier almost impassable from April till November, and from February: to April the snow is so deep that major operations are impossible; whereas from the end of November up till the end of January the lakes are frozen over and the ice thick enough to carry transport but there is still insufficient snow to prove a serious obstacle. That is why, having gobbled up Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, Stalin had to wait until now before he could bring real pressure to bear on Finland. If he waits until January it will be too late to launch an offensive with any hope of a quick creak through, and if he waits until next November he may have lost his chance for good and all."
"Yes, yes; you're right about that. But do you think the
Finns will fight?"
"God knows. They're a brave people but their numbers are so small and the weight of the Russian tanks and bombers that can be brought against them is tremendous. If they do fight they risk utter annihilation and the destruction of every town in he country, but it is certainly to your interest that they should do so."
"Not necessarily. Personally, I have always been for curbing he power of the Bolsheviks, and if Russia secures her bases in Finland either by threats or by overrunning the country it will be another blow to German prestige in the Baltic. On the other land, if Russia starts even a minor war it will make it much more difficult for her to fulfil her obligations to us and we don't wish to give her any further excuse for delaying the supplies of material that she's promised. If the Finns give in we get our supplies; if they fight well…" Goering shrugged.
"Listen." Gregory set down his glass with a bang. "You're not going to get those supplies or, anyway, nothing like the quantity you have been led to believe so you might as well count that out. I tell you Stalin doesn't mean to help Germany win the war; therefore you'd be mad to allow him to get away with the rape of Finland if you can possibly prevent it."
"I'm doing what I can to persuade Russia to moderate her demands. You heard me say that I intend to see the Soviet Ambassador to morrow morning."
"That's not enough. You're in no position to exert any pressure on the Kremlin so they won't take the least notice of you. Your game is to tackle this job from the other end and to persuade the Finns to tell the Russians to go to Hell."
"To do so would be to go against the Führer’s policy. If it leaked out that I had privately been in communication with the Finnish Government there would be the very devil to pay."
"Perhaps. But there are ways and means of ensuring that it doesn't leak out and, anyhow, I'm not concerned with the Führer’s policy. He thinks that he is going to win this war, doesn't he? But you don't."
Goering smiled. "As I'm talking to a man who is already as good as dead I don't mind admitting that I think it unlikely. If we had attacked France and Britain right away we might have pulled it off, but I was overruled about that; the others insisted that once the Polish business was a fait accompli the Western Powers would throw in their hand. But when I say I think it unlikely that we shall win I do not at all mean that we shall necessarily lose, because, as I've told you, Germany can hold out against the blockade indefinitely."
"Right. Let's assume, then, that this year, next year or in
five years' time, when everybody is thoroughly fed up, there will years' a peace by negotiation. Germany may still be strong enough to insist on retaining her Austrian, Czechoslovakian and Polish territories; but is that enough? She will still be fenced in by customs barriers and emigration restrictions. You may be quite certain that Britain and France will not give up any of their Colonies, and if you go on sinking neutral shipping as you have been doing Germans aren't going to find a ready welcome if they try to settle in other countries. It'll take you a few years to recover from the war. Then you'll be faced again with the same old problem; the inevitable pressure of Germany 's virile population will force her leaders to seek a new outlet."
"Yes," Goering nodded. "'The Democracies sneer at our claim for Lebensraum, but they have no right to do so. We Germans cannot be bottled up indefinitely and this question must be faced, if not at the peace conference then a few years later, when the distress of war has once more faded from the public mind."
"Good. Then what are you going to do have a third crack at Britain and France? That's not going to get you anywhere, because if the peace is one of negotiation Europe will remain an armed camp. But why should you when, if you could get the Ukraine, South Russia down to the Black Sea and a free hand to develop the resources of Asiatic Russia, you'd have an empire equal in its potentialities to the British or the French? Stalin is the bad boy of the family nobody loves old 'Joe' so we're not going to his assistance. particularly after the help he is assumed to have given you against us in this present war. Obviously, then, Germany 's future lies in the East."
"Exactly what I have always maintained."
"Like Stalin, then, you must forget the present and adopt a long term policy. I think it's very doubtful if the Democracies will ever agree to make a peace with Hitler; they have no faith whatever in his word. But he's as good as said himself that he would be prepared to go into retirement if it were for the good of the Reich. Your situation is very different. You are the most popular of the Nazi leaders in Germany and, in spite of the war, your stock still stands pretty high in Britain. Clearly, therefore, if there is a negotiated peace while the Nazis are still in control of Germany you will be the new leader of the German nation."
"Only with the Führer’s consent and approval."
"Yes, yes; but we can take that for granted. Internal and external pressure will be too great for him to resist. My point is that you should not wait until supreme power is placed in your hands possibly at some extremely difficult moment but must make up your mind now what your policy is going to be when power comes to you, and shape events as far as possible so that conditions will be favourable for you to carry that policy out.'°
Goering took a long drink and stared at Gregory. "Why the Hell do I allow you to talk to me like this?"
"Because you're not the fat, jolly fool that it suits you to let the masses think you, but one of the greatest statesmen in Europe; and you know that I'm talking sound sense."
"Go on, then. What do you suggest that I should do?"
"Your long term policy is an invasion of Russia three years after you have been able to secure a negotiated peace. Finland is your last stronghold in the Northern Baltic. As long as Finnish independence is maintained there is always an opening for you to negotiate a secret alliance with the Finns. Use Finland as your base and strike right down at Moscow. That is why Finnish independence must be maintained at all costs and, rather than that she should give a single base to Russia, by hook or by crook you've got to persuade her to fight."
"That's easier said than done. As I've already told you, I dare not enter into secret negotiation with the Finnish Government and from all I've heard it looks as if they'll give in rather than fight."