Dale Brown
Fatal Terrain
Acknowledgements
Thanks to Harold J. Hough, military technology journalist and author of Satellite Surveillance, for his help in researching modern Chinese military capabilities and strategies.
A valuable resource on ancient Chinese military thought from which some of the quotations in this book were taken is The Seven Military Classics of Ancient China, translated by Ralph D. Sawyer (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
To Diane: Thanks for starting the adventure with me.
Dedication
This novel is dedicated to the nineteen U.S. Air Force soldiers who lost their lives as a result of a terrorist bombing in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in June of 1996.
Sun-tzu said, “Compel others: do not be compelled by them.”
Our leaders, military and civilian, should remember and heed these words.
Disclaimer
This is a work of fiction. Any similarity to actual persons, living or dead, or to any actual place, organization, or event is coincidental and purely a product of the authors imagination. The thoughts and opinions expressed are solely those of the author.
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REAL-WORLD NEWS EXCERPTS
JANE’S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, SPECIAL REPORT #7, “Territorial Disputes,” 1995 — There is one particular instance of an island dispute which could certainly prove very dangerous — the island of Taiwan. There is no doubt that China is very sensitive to any possibility that Taiwan may drift into complete independence from the mainland…
Should Taiwan be seen to embark on the course of independence, China would almost certainly use force to stop it, and full-scale war could easily result…
… Many analysts believe this to be the most serious long-term threat to Asia’s security…
“PRESCRIPTION FOR PEACE AND PROSPERITY”-speech by former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, 17 January 1996, Taipei, Taiwan — The principle of the balance of power, in which several weaker forces combine to counterbalance a stronger one, is often underrated. In fact it makes for stability. But there also has to be one global power, a military power of last resort, to ensure that regional disputes do not escalate to uncontainable levels. That power is and can only be the United States. It is in all our interests to keep her committed to upholding international order, which means remaining a Pacific and indeed a European power.
That requires encouragement and support from America’s allies and those who benefit from America’s presence. It would have been a rash person who would have predicted at the end of the Vietnam War that America would still have substantial forces in Asia two decades later. But thank goodness America has had the stamina and resolve to stay because its presence is the critical element in the Asian security equation…
BEIJING WARNS U.S. IT’S READY TO ATTACK TAIWAN-01 /24/96-New York — Reuters — China has warned the United States it has completed plans for a limited attack on Taiwan that could be launched in the weeks after Taiwan’s president wins an election in March, the New York Times reported on Wednesday.
However, a senior U. S. official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the Clinton administration had “no independent confirmation or even credible evidence” that Beijing was considering an attack.
The New York Times report from Beijing said the most direct warning was conveyed through former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Chas Freeman, who held discussions this winter with senior Chinese officials.
Freeman told National Security Advisor Anthony Lake that the Chinese army had prepared plans for a missile attack against Taiwan at one strike a day for 30 days, the newspaper said.
BEIJING REAFFIRMS CLAIM TO ROC AS “PART OF CHINA” (JAN 30/DPA)-Beijing — DPA — Taiwan is an “inalienable part” of China, Chinese Prime Minister Li Peng said Tuesday on the anniversary marking the reunification initiative of state and party head Jiang Zemin.
“There is only one China in the world and Taiwan is an inalienable part of it,” Li said. “Whatever changes might occur in the way in which the leadership in Taiwan is chosen, they cannot change the fact that Taiwan is a part of China and its leaders are only leaders of a region.” Li warned, however, against using a change of government leaders in Taiwan as an excuse to put their separatist activities in legal guise.
PERRY DECLINES TO SAY THAT U.S. WOULD DEFEND TAIWAN (Feb 7/Blmbrg) — Washington (Feb 6) — Bloomberg — U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry declined today to say the U.S. would definitely defend Taiwan if that country is attacked by China.
How the U.S. would respond to such an attack “depends very much on the circumstances” that prompted the incident, Perry said during a speech at the Washington Institute here today. His speech was broadcast throughout the Pentagon.
Perry said the Taiwan Relations Act continues to guide U.S. policy. That 1979 U.S. law doesn’t require the U.S. to defend Taiwan if Taiwan is attacked. The act does say the U.S. would consider an attack on Taiwan “a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States.”
JANE’S INTELLIGENCE REVIEW, “China’s View of Strategic Weapons,” March 1996—Since its first nuclear detonation in 1964, China has maintained a declaratory policy not to use nuclear weapons first… But should the threat of defeat become real, all bets are off. Presumably since nuclear strikes [against Taiwan] would be taking place “within China’s borders,” this is considered to be technically a non-violation of nuclear declaratory policy.
DEFENSE & FOREIGN AFFAIRS HANDBOOK (London: International Media Corp. Ltd., 1996) — It became clear, however, as the elections in the ROC [Republic of China] approached, that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] was not, in reality, ready for a conventional invasion of Taiwan… The only option open to the PRC to achieve its objective would be a full missile bombardment of Taiwan, using nuclear weapons. The PRC made it clear that this was not ruled out; and, if the U.S. interfered in this “domestic” matter, then a nuclear strike by PRC ICBMs on U.S. cities, such as Los Angeles, could not be discounted…
B-52 MISSION SHOWS GLOBAL REACH, AIR FORCE SAYS, by Bryan Bender, 09/05/96, Phillips Business Information, Inc. (used with permission) — The effective use of two Air Force B-52 bombers that fired 13 of the 27 cruise missiles in the first attack on Iraqi air defenses Tuesday demonstrated the viability of the service’s post-Cold War strategy of striking anywhere at any time, according to the mission commander.
The bombers from the 96th Bomb Squadron left Barksdale AFB, La., Monday for Andersen AFB, Guam, where they then launched the Operation Desert Strike mission.
The 34-hour, 13,600-mile mission — which included four midair refuelings—“proved the concept” of global reach and global power, or being able to launch assets on short notice — in this case from the United States — at targets across the world, Lt. Col. Floyd Carpenter, also commander of the 96th Bomb Squadron, told reporters late Tuesday after returning with his crew to Guam.