“Good ol’ Admiral Yin Po L’un, firing nukes around the South China Sea and Celebes Sea from that huge-ass destroyer Hong Lung like spit- balls in a third-grade classroom,” the President reminded everyone wryly. “We’re very lucky World War Three didn’t break out. Thanks to Patrick and Jon here, we put a hole in that destroyer of his big enough to drop a house through.”
“Well, General Chin Po Zihong is still chief of staff of the People’s Liberation Army; Yin’s former second in command, Admiral Sun, is now a deputy chief of staff; and China has an apparently fully operational aircraft carrier that our sources say may be carrying nuclear ballistic missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles,” Freeman summarized. “Chin might be out for revenge for what we did to his navy, and Sun might want revenge for what we did to his brand-new destroyer. A nuclear weapon might be the only way China can dig the Nationalists out of the tunnels and mountain fortresses of Quemoy.” Two groups of islands just off the coast of mainland China were claimed and occupied by Taiwan: the Matsu Islands northwest of Taiwan, no more than eleven miles off the coast; and Quemoy, a large island directly west of the island of Formosa and no more than two miles off the Chinese coast. Both Taiwanese islands had been heavily bombarded by Chinese artillery and naval forces in the past, but they had held firm — capturing them would be a major moral as well as a tactical victory for the Chinese Communists.
“So you’re saying we’re looking at the possibility of a nuclear war over Taiwan?” the President asked. “Any chance they’re just going to sail all these ships down to Hong Kong to celebrate Reunification Day? ”
“Always a chance of that, sir,” Freeman responded, “but a better bet would be an invasion force or a covering force against one of the Taiwanese island formations near the PRC coastline. The lack of landing craft in the task force suggests it’s not an amphibious invasion, although the aircraft carrier itself makes a very formidable troop carrier and it does have the capability to launch amphibious assault ships. The task force could set up a blockade while their invasion forces go ashore. Quemoy would be the most logical target. Taiwan garrisons approximately fifty- five to sixty thousand Taiwanese troops there, along with antiaircraft and coast defense missile sites, but they’re nothing but a political trip wire, designed to inflame the world against the Communists if they attack. The attack would be over quickly, probably well before we could do anything to assist.
“The Communists will probably conduct an amphibious assault soon after the missile or bomber attacks — they won’t make the same mistake they did in 1958,” Freeman went on. “Then, the Communists bombarded the island for six straight weeks—it’s estimated that every square mile of the island was hit by two thousand artillery shells. Even after the offensive stopped, the Communists continued to bombard the island every other day for eighteen years. But the Nationalists dug in, using a complex of underground fire bases and supply tunnels. The Communists never were able to dig out the Nationalists, so the invasion plans were shelved.
“That won’t happen again. A neutron-bomb attack would destroy the island’s defenses, and the People’s Liberation Army would simply march right in after the radiation levels subside in a few months. Target date: right around July first. Chinese Reunification Day. Maybe earlier, so victory could be won by Reunification Day. ”
The President seemed to swallow hard at that bit of news. “You think they’d start a nuclear war over Taiwan, even though Taiwan declared its independence and the whole world will be watching?”
“I think the Chinese military machine began gearing up for this offensive several months ago,” Freeman replied, “and it’s too late to stop it. In fact, Taiwan declaring independence probably guaranteed they were going to go ahead with an invasion.”
“Damn,” the President muttered. “The elephant is getting ready to squash the flea.” He paused for a moment, then asked, “Where are the carriers right now?”
“Admiral Balboa should be here in a few minutes to brief you, sir,” Freeman said, glancing at his watch, “but I’ll summarize. We have no carriers within striking range of the Chinese task force or their missile bases, but that can be remedied in about three days. The Independence battle group is closest, getting ready to depart Yokosuka on patrol. It’s on its last cruise before retirement, carrying a standard package air wing. Indy's replacement is the George Washington, getting ready to depart Pearl, carrying an attack-heavy wing. ETE five days.”
“Any other air units in the area?”
“We fly daily P-3 Orion anti-submarine patrols up and down the Formosa Strait,” Freeman responded. “We also have Air Force reconnaissance planes flying nearby, RC-135 Rivet Joint intelligence-gathering planes. Daily satellite passes as well.”
“I meant strike or defense-suppression air,” the President said.
Freeman nodded. “We’ve got Marine F/A-18 Hornets and A-6 Intruders on Okinawa, but they need heavy aerial refueling tanker support,” he replied. “The Orions can carry torpedoes and Harpoon missiles in a strike configuration. We made the decision not to load up the region so as to avoid provoking China during their Reunification Day celebrations.”
“But it seems to have had a reverse effect,” Secretary of Defense Chastain cut in. “President Jiang sees an opportunity. He has the people whipped up by all this reunification talk and solidly behind him, he got the Politburo and military behind him, and it looks like they’re going for it.”
The President had little reaction except to ask, “Submarines?”
“We have two Los Angeles-class attack subs, Springfield and Pasadena, assigned to shadow the Chinese task force,” Freeman replied. “Two more Sturgeon-class subs are patrolling the Formosa Strait itself, and the Honolulu is shadowing the Chinese nuclear sub Xia. Two more subs are on patrol in the South China Sea. All seven subs have relief on the way. ”
“Two subs versus a fifty-ship task force is a bit skimpy,” Secretary of Defense Chastain interjected.
“We can have two more subs on station in five to six days,” Freeman said. “But Taiwan has two, maybe three subs between the task force and Formosa, and so the Chinese are aggressively hunting subs.”
“All the more reason to put a few more in,” Chastain argued. They all looked at the President, waiting for guidance.
The conversation fascinated Patrick McLanahan. This was the White House Oval Office, the center of world power — but thorny questions were discussed and massaged and examined as if they were all sitting around in a farmhouse kitchen in Iowa, discussing the weather and the markets and the crops and trying to decide whether to begin the harvest now or wait another couple days. McLanahan was also surprised at Martindale s hesitancy. Kevin Martindale had never been shy about committing U.S. military forces anywhere, anytime — but the political fallout from the conflict with Iran, and especially the decision to fly a B-2 bomber secretly across Chinese airspace to get at Iran from the “back door,” was murderous. Impeachment had been mentioned more than once in interviews with the opposition party, and the media seemed to be fanning those flames. Martindale s presidency was less than six months old, and it was already seriously in hot water.