“It is not wise to change the war plans,” General Qian said. “Yes, yes, some missiles are not in place right now, but they will be soon. If we are ordered to execute our war plans, we can move additional forces eastward to cover those two Nationalist air bases. Does that alleviate your concern, Comrade Admiral?”
“Comrade General, the purpose of this planning committee is to continually modify the existing war plans to reflect current circumstances and conditions,” Sun Ji Guoming said. “This is done so we do not have to wait until the moment we execute the war order to learn that we do not have the forces in place to accomplish the mission. When you were notified that Longtian was flooded and missiles were being relocated, you should have immediately moved additional forces to cover those targets.”
“You mean, fly hundreds of aircraft and thousands of troops all over China just for a few days until some mud is swept away?” General Qian asked. “Do you realize how much that would cost? And what of other war plans for which those aircraft and personnel are committed? That means coordinating with dozens of other headquarters all over China.”
“But, sir, that is the purpose of this planning group — to respond immediately to changes that might affect this war plan,” Sun argued. “If it becomes necessary to move men and equipment to a new location, then so be it. We should—”
“We should look at the solution in a different way, a way that will not be as complicated or as costly,” Qian interjected, obviously impatient to get this briefing over with. “Perhaps in the future we can brief possible replacement units that could be utilized to fill in, in situations such as have occurred in Longtian. We do not actually move any forces, but we earmark them for possible action in case the war plan is activated. How does that sound to you, Comrade Sun?”
Sun opened his mouth to respond, but thought better of it. It was a bad idea. The war plan for the invasion of Taiwan was supposed to be a rapid reaction plan — the invasion was supposed to begin within twenty-four hours of the execution order. The world, especially Taiwan and its de facto ally, the United States of America, would immediately detect any massive troop or equipment movements; the element of surprise would be lost, and China no doubt would be forced to stand down its forces. If there were huge gaps in the reaction time of forces key to the plan— especially the Dong Feng-15 missile bombardment units, which were supposed to destroy key air defense and coastal defense sites in western Taiwan — the entire invasion plan was in jeopardy.
But now was not the time to argue this point. “Very well, Comrade General,” Sun acquiesced. “As long as the chief of staff is aware of the degradation, and immediately advised as to the steps being taken to correct the deficiency, a briefing note such as you suggest could be acceptable. But it is certainly not acceptable to brief that a certain element in the attack plan is mission-capable if it is in fact not so. The war plans are not carved in stone — they must be continually modified or they are useless. Please do not commit that error again, Comrade Colonel.”
“Yes, Comrade Admiral,” Colonel Ai responded, nodding contritely. Ai took a moment to take a sip of water, collect his thoughts, and find his place again — and immediately proceeded to give his briefing exactly as prepared, errors and all. There were at least two more instances that Sun knew of where attack units were not in place — in one case, an attack unit that Ai briefed was key to the destruction of a radar site on the Pescadores Islands in the Formosa Strait did not even exist any longer! The planning committee had done virtually nothing to the original Central Military Commission war plans drafted several years earlier.
“Another question, Comrade Colonel,” Sun interjected, swallowing his exasperation. “You seem quite content to sail the carrier Mao and her escorts right up to Kaohsiung, supported by air forces from Pingtan and naval air units from Quanzhou. But that means our J-6s will be up against the Nationalists’ F-16s from T’ainan…”
“We enjoy a six to one superiority in fighters, Comrade Admiral,” Ai responded. “Also, the DF-15 bombardment is guaranteed to destroy all of the runways that might possibly be used by the F-16s. Even if we do not destroy many F-16s on the ground, they will be trapped either aloft running out of fuel and weapons, or on the ground unable to launch.” “Your estimates of the amount of damage our rockets might do to the Nationalists’ bases is arguable, since they have a great quantity of ballistic missile defense systems and much of their warfighting infrastructure is belowground, where our rockets would have little effect, ” Sun said. “But even if our rocket attack is twice as effective as you say, our numerical fighter aircraft superiority can be completely erased if our air attack is at night.”
“Sir…?”
“Our J-5 and J-6 fighters and most of our J-7 fighters are not capable of night operations — I see that seventy-five percent of the air cover for the carrier is composed of J-6s,” Sun explained. “Only about ten percent are J-7s and J-8s. Where are the Sukhoi-27s? Those are our most capable fighters.”
“The Su-27s are based at Haikou Airfield, on Hainan Dao, Comrade Admiral,” Ai replied.
“I know where they are based, comrade — my question is, why are they not part of this offensive?” Sun asked. “Our fifty best fighters against their fifty best fighters — it would be an excellent battle, one that we could very well win. Such a battle could be decisive.”
“There you go again, comrade,” General Qian interjected, with a chuckle that sounded as if he were losing a lung. “The Sukhoi-27s have been deployed to Hainan Island to patrol the Nansha Dao. Their base facilities are specially made just for them. Do you now suggest we spend billions of yuan more to move them north to Pingtan or Fuzhou?”
“For this offensive — of course we should, sir,” Sun replied. “We need our best equipment and best pilots to blunt the rebel’s superior technological advantage, and the Sukhoi-27s are just as capable and perhaps superior to the F-16 Fighting Falcon. The teaming of J-8s with Su-27s is easily superior to a matchup between Taiwan’s F-16s and F-5 Freedom Fighters. The key, obviously, is the Sukhoi-27s.”
“We also have the advantage of superior command and control,” Ai interjected, “namely, the Ilyushin-76 radar surveillance planes. Two of our U-76s operating in the region during the conflict greatly increase the flexibility of the J-7s and J-6s. ”
“Our radar plane crews are just now being certified for combat duties,” Sun responded. “I feel it is not wise to trust them to carry the air battle for us, especially if we are top-heavy with fighters that require constant airborne intercept and even weapon-control information right down to ‘knife-fighting’ range. That could overload the radar operators and cause confusion.”
“Every commander wants the best, especially the young ones like yourself,” Qian argued, his voice very grandfatherly, almost jovial. “The J-6s and J-7 fighters, along with the Ilyushin-76 radar planes, will perform well beyond all expectations.”
“But the Su-27s will give us an edge—”
“The Sukhoi-27s were based on Hainan Dao to protect our interests in the South China Sea, in case of attack by Vietnamese or Philippine forces on our holdings in the Spratly Islands,” Qian said. He raised a suspicious eyebrow and asked Sun, “You are not suggesting we abandon our rights to the South China Sea, Comrade Admiral?”
“Of… course… not, sir,” Sun Ji Guoming replied, stunned by the question. “Sir, I am not trying to discredit the war plan or impose my own views over that of the Party or the Central Military Commission. My intention is to suggest improvements on the plan to ensure a safe and successful outcome. The Formosa invasion—”